The West Virginia Mountaineers (18-6, 6-5 Big 12) visit the rival Baylor Bears (22-1, 11-0) Saturday in the Ferrell Center in Waco, Texas, for a 4 p.m. ET tip-off. We analyze the West Virginia-Baylor odds and betting lines, with college basketball betting advice and tips around this matchup.
West Virginia at Baylor: Three things you need to know
- Baylor is on pace for its best season and its first 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament in the Scott Drew era. In 17 seasons under Drew, Baylor’s highest seed for the tournament was No. 3 in 2010, ’12 & ’15, but the Bears have never won the Big 12 title.
- Bob Huggins is looking to get West Virginia back into the NCAA Tournament after missing out last season. 2018-19 snapped a four-year streak of the Mountaineers playing in March Madness.
- Baylor has beaten West Virginia in their last two meetings but the Mountaineers have covered three out of the last four games.
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West Virginia at Baylor: Odds, betting lines and picks
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Baylor 65, West Virginia 62
Moneyline (ML)
This game will be close because of both team’s defenses (more on that in a second) but what causes me to lean toward West Virginia is its frontcourt mismatch. The two RSCI top-100 ranked recruits in West Virginia’s starting lineup—Oscar Tshiebwe and Derek Culver—lead the Mountaineers in points and rebounds per game. Tshiebwe stands at 6-foot-9 and Culver 6-10; and no one in Baylor’s starting lineup is listed taller than 6-8. West Virginia can use its size to dominate the glass and Baylor out of the paint.
But, I will PASS ON THE MONEYLINE (West Virginia +195/Baylor -239) here because of West Virginia’s 3-5 road record playing a Baylor team that is undefeated (11-0) at home.
Against the Spread (ATS)
The Bears are favored at -5.5 (-110) in what will likely be a defensive match. Per updated stats on NCAA.com, West Virginia is 14th in the nation in opponents scoring, fifth in opponent’s field-goal percentage and third in opponent’s 3-point FG%. But don’t sleep on a Bears defense that ranks fifth in opponent’s PPG, 16th in opponents’ FG% and 61st in opponent’s 3-point FG%. They are going against a West Virginia offense ranked 159th in PPG, 239th in FG% and 319th in 3-point shooting. Plus neither team will be able to ice the game away with their poor free-throw shooting. The Mountaineers are 328th in the nation from the charity stripe, while the Bears are ranked 205th.
BET WEST VIRGINIA +5.5 (-110).
Over/Under (O/U)
If the handicap for the line is a defensive battle keeping the game close, then UNDER 130.5 (-121) is the only thing that makes sense here. The extra vig on the Under makes me a feel a little better because it means the market is seeing a similar game as I am. Furthermore, West Virginia’s Over/Under record is 2-6 on the road and Baylor has a 4-7 O/U record at home.
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