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Barcelona (12 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses) welcomes Atletico Madrid (11-5-1) to Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys Saturday. Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET (ESPN Deportes). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s soccer odds around the Barcelona vs. Atletico Madrid odds, and make our best soccer bets, picks and predictions.
Barcelona, which sits atop La Liga, was flawless through its first 5 home games, but it is coming off a 1-0 loss to Leganes Sunday. In its last La Liga home match prior to that, it lost 2-1 to Las Palmas, despite having 1.8 or more expected goals in both battles. Barcelona is still 5-0-2 at home. It is led by F Robert Lewandowski, who has tallied 16 goals in 17 matches.
Atletico Madrid sits second in the league and has a 4-3-1 away record. It is coming off a 1-0 home win over Getafe Sunday, ending the game with 1.5 more expected goals. Madrid has been absolutely on fire, winning 11 straight games, 3 of which were Champions League bouts against quality sides. F Antoine Griezmann had a team-high 11 goals and assists.
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Barcelona vs. Atletico Madrid odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of soccer odds. Lines last updated Friday at 9 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Barcelona -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Atletico Madrid +280 (bet $100 to win $280) | Draw +280 (bet $100 to win $280)
- Over/Under: 2.5 (O: -175 | U: +125)
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Barcelona vs. Atletico Madrid picks and predictions
Prediction
Barcelona 1, Atletico Madrid 0
Moneyline (ML)
BET BARCELONA (-115).
Barcelona might have lost 2 straight at home, but it has dominated opponents despite failing to come out on top. Barcelona has had 0.8 or more expected goals than its opponent in every home game, including a 2-1 home win against Athletic Club which sits 4th in the league.
Atletico Madrid hasn’t performed overly well on the road despite a 4-3-1 record. Madrid and had fewer expected goals in 4 of those 8 games and has had as many expected goals in 1 other. Considering those season-long trends, back BARCELONA (-115).
Over/Under (O/U)
BET UNDER 2.5 (+125).
Both defenses are among the best in La Liga. Madrid has had 4 clean sheets in 8 away matches and has gone Under 2.5 in 6 of its last 7 road battles. It has had 0.6 or fewer expected goals in 5 of its last 6 away games.
Barcelona is allowing 1.11 goals per game this season and has 2 clean sheets in its last 6 home matches. It has allowed just 1 goal or fewer in 8 of its 11 home games.
Take UNDER 2.5 (+125). If you agree with my predicted score and believe it will be a taut, low-scoring game, you could consider the Alternative Under 1.5 (+340) for a chance to more than triple up. FanDuel Sportsbook is offering Under 2.5 (+140) and the Alternative Under 1.5 (+440).
Check out Pro Soccer Wire: For the American soccer fan, USA TODAY Sports Media Group’s website provides a fresh look at the beautiful game.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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