The Baltimore Ravens are among the elite teams in the NFL heading into the 2020 season after Football Outsiders’ DVOA Projections listed them as the third-best team in the league.
For those in need of a reminder, or in some cases a comprehensive answer as to just what DVOA is, it’s best the answer to come straight from the horse’s mouth.
DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value over Average) is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: Five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12. Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10 percent better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of -20.0% is 20 percent worse than the average quarterback. Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative.
In his breakdown explaining the Ravens rank, Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar is quick to point out that (Football Outsiders) projection of a 16.4% overall DVOA and 10.0 “Average Wins” for the Ravens came before the team decided to release safety Earl Thomas, but this group is loaded enough on both sides of the ball to overcome that.
The 2019 Ravens squad was one of the best teams in the entire DVOA era, with data compiling beginning in 1985. The Ravens finished with a whopping 41.8% a year ago. As per Farrar, “this third-place finish in overall DVOA for 2020 estimates a massive regression.”
But being projected to not finish top of the heap is not something to be taken as a sign of imminent failure. As Farrar closes by saying, “If Lamar Jackson continues to take positive steps as a pure quarterback, the Ravens might finish first in DVOA again — and perhaps there’s a Super Bowl in their near future.”
For those interested in learning more about DVOA, you can find a far more detailed explanation here.
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