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Quarterbacks and receivers have won the last 5 NFL Offensive Rookies of the Year and it would appear that there is a good chance that that trend will continue this season.
The 12 rookies with the shortest odds to win this year’s Offensive Rookie of the Year award are either quarterbacks or receivers.
The 2 favorites are quarterbacks, but Arizona Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr. is in a good situation to both put up numbers worthy of the award and also be a good value.
Below, we analyze the 2024 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds from BetMGM Sportsbook and make the best suggestion among our expert NFL picks and predictions.
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2024 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday, July 17 at 3:30 a.m. ET.
- QB Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (+125)
- QB Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders (+600)
- WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals (+750)
- WR Malik Nabers, New York Giants (+1600)
- QB J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings (+1800)
- QB Bo Nix, Denver Broncos (+1800)
NOTABLE
+3000: WR Rome Odunze, Chicago Bears
+4000: RB Trey Benson, Arizona Cardinals
+25000: WR Luke McCaffrey, Washington Commanders
For full list, see BetMGM Sportsbook.
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NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year best bet
WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals (+750)
In terms of potential winning bets, really only 2 players make sense — Williams and Harrison.
Daniels plays for a team that will likely end up in last place in Washington. There are enough doubts about how much Nabers can produce with QB Daniel Jones throwing him the ball. McCarthy likely will not start the season as Minnesota’s starter, so he will have fewer games to perform.
That leaves Williams and Harrison as the 2 real solid candidates. Williams is the favorite because he joins a team that won 7 games last season, had a defense that allowed under 18 points a game over their final 9 games, and has an offensive skill group that includes RB D’Andre Swift, TE Cole Kmet and WRs Keenan Allen, D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze.
Of course, as the favorite at +125, he doesn’t give you nearly the value that Harrison offers.
Harrison joins a Cardinals offense that was top 10 in efficiency after QB Kyler Murray’s return. Harrison will be the Cardinals’ No. 1 receiver option and plenty of opportunities. Because TE Trey McBride emerged as a real pass-catching threat with 81 receptions last season and WR Michael Wilson had 565 receiving yards, defenses won’t be able to focus only on the rookie out of Ohio State. Additionally, the Cardinals had the 4th-best rushing attack in the league last season, so Harrison’s playmaking will provide balance.
Pulling in more than 1,100 or 1,200 receiving yards is not out of the question.
Last season, Los Angeles Rams WR Puka Nacua set rookie records with 105 receptions for 1,486 yards and didn’t win the award because Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud had a special season and led a team expected to perhaps be the worst in football to a division title.
Any great rookie receiver season will be trumped by a special rookie quarterback season. But will Williams have a special rookie season for the Bears? It’s possible.
Williams is a good bet, but he isn’t a good value play. That is why Harrison gives you the best value for a very possible winning ticket.
BET MARVIN HARRISON JR. to win NFL OFFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR (+750).
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