The New York Yankees (78-57) host the Baltimore Orioles (42-92) Sunday for the finale of their three-game series at Yankee Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Orioles vs. Yankees odds with MLB picks and predictions.
This is the rubber match after New York took the series opener 4-3 in extra innings Friday and Baltimore evened the series with a 4-3 victory Saturday.
Season series: Yankees lead 9-6.
LHP Keegan Akin gets the nod for the Orioles. Akin is 2-8 with a 6.90 ERA (75 2/3 IP, 58 ER), 1.65 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 in 13 starts and seven relief appearances.
- Last outing: Win, 4-2, with 5 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 3 BB and 5 K Tuesday at the Toronto Blue Jays.
- Road splits: 1-5 with a 7.46 ERA (41 IP, 34 ER), 1.78 WHIP and 1.8 K/BB in eight starts and four bullpen outings.
- vs. Yankees on the current roster (35 PA): 2.83 FIP with a .219 batting average (BA), .246 wOBA, .378 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 17.1 K% and 88.0 mph exit velocity (EV).
RHP Corey Kluber takes the mound for the Yankees. Kluber is 4-3 with a 3.61 ERA (57 1/3 IP, 23 ER), 1.24 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 11 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision in New York’s 8-7 loss at the Los Angeles Angels Monday with a stat line of 4 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 6 K.
- Kluber is 2-0 this year against Baltimore with a 3.55 ERA (12 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 13 H, 4 BB and 11 K in two starts.
- vs. Orioles on the current roster (39 PA): 4.05 FIP with a .257 BA, .340 wOBA, .422 xSLG, 23.1 K% and 84.8 mph EV.
Orioles at Yankees odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:28 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Orioles +260 (bet $100 to win $260) | Yankees -340 (bet $340 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Orioles +2.5 (-108) | Yankees -2.5 (-112)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Prediction
Yankees 6, Orioles 1
Money line (ML)
PASS even though New York is clearly the right side because Yankees (-340) is way out of my price range. This is even too expensive to throw into a money line parlay.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” YANKEES -2.5 (-112) for a half unit because New York holds a significant edge in the three most important phases of the game.
The Yankees are top seven against left-handed pitching in advanced hitting metrics such as wRC+, wOBA and BB/K. Also, New York’s bullpen is ranked atop several advanced pitching metrics while Baltimore’s pitching staff has been drilled this season.
That said, the Yankees are just 26-36 ATS as a home favorite and the Orioles have beaten New York six times in 2021.
Over/Under (O/U)
This ought to be a slump-buster game for a Yankees lineup that has struggled for a week now. New York’s lineup is ranked 23rd in wRC+ and wOBA and 25th in WAR. However, Akin’s career pitching peripherals against the Yankees are solid though and New York’s bullpen can be trusted if it’s a close game late.
Furthermore, the Yankees are 24-35-3 O/U as a home favorite and the Orioles are 30-35-3 O/U as a road underdog. On top of that, the Under could also function as a hedge for our wager on New York’s run line.
“LEAN” UNDER 9.5 (-108) for a half unit.
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