The Baltimore Orioles (51-49) face the Cincinnati Reds (38-61) Saturday in the 2nd game of a 3-game set at Great American Ball Park with the 1st pitch scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Orioles vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Baltimore won Friday’s opener 6-2 behind a 4-run rally in the top of the 9th, featuring CF Cedric Mullins’ 2-run RBI single.
Season series: Orioles lead 1-0
The surging Orioles have won 20 of their previous 30 games and are just 2 games back of the Tampa Bay Rays for the 3rd and final AL Wild Card berth.
The Reds have played .500-ball over the past 30 games and are 4-4 in their last 8 following the All-Star break.
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Orioles at Reds projected starters
RHP Dean Kremer vs. RHP Tyler Mahle
Kremer is 3-2 with a 3.06 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 47 IP over 9 starts.
- Last start: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K in 6-0 home setback vs. New York Yankees Sunday
- 2022 road splits: 2-0, 1.66 ERA (21 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 1 HR, 5.4 K/9 in 4 starts
Mahle is 4-7 with a 4.48 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 98 1/3 IP over 18 starts.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 3 ER, 2 H, 2 HR, 3 BB, 5 K in 6-3 home victory vs. St. Louis Cardinals Sunday
- 2022 home splits: 1-5, 4.94 ERA (58 1/3 IP, 32 ER), 1.47 WHIP, 9 HR, 9.6 K/9 in 11 starts
Orioles at Reds odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:30 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Orioles -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Reds -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles -1.5 (+140) | Reds +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +110 | U: -135)
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Orioles at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Orioles 5, Reds 3
Money line
BET ORIOLES (-110) for 1 unit.
The starting pitching matchup is a wash, but the Reds (-110) are terrible vs. right-handed pitching and Baltimore’s bullpen is a lot better than Cincy’s.
The Reds are 27th in wRC+ (85), 24th in wOBA (.299) and 25th in BB/K rate (0.30), per FanGraphs. Also, Baltimore’s bullpen is 3rd in ERA (2.99) and 4th in home runs allowed per 9 innings (0.79), while Cincy’s bullpen is last in both (5.26 ERA and 1.38 HR/9).
Finally, the Reds are just 3-9 straight up at home in “coin-flip games” this season (when Cincy’s ML is priced between +100 and -120).
BET ORIOLES (-110).
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Orioles -1.5 (+140) needs to be north of +160 in order to get a “sprinkle.” But Baltimore has covered its only 2 games as a road favorite this year, and Cincinnati +1.5 (-175) is just 17-19 RL as home underdogs.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 9.5 (-135).
Both Kremer and Mahle have been dealing recently, neither lineup is very productive vs. right-handed pitching and Baltimore’s bullpen is one of the best in MLB.
Plus, Baltimore and Cincinnati are a combined 8-18-2 O/U in interleague games.
However, Great American Ball Park has the 3rd-highest park factor in MLB – meaning it’s very hitter-friendly – and Cincy’s bullpen is awful.
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