In a welterweight bout on the main card, Miguel Baeza and Takashi Sato meet at UFC on ESPN+ 42 – also called UFC on ESPN 18 and UFC Fight Night 183 – Saturday at the UFC’s APEX facility in Las Vegas. The prelims kick off at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card on ESPN/ESPN+ at 10 p.m. ET.
Baeza (9-0) puts his unblemished record on the line against the experienced Japanese southpaw Sato (16-3). The American steps into the octagon towering four inches over his counterpart with a 1.5-inch reach advantage. In addition, he holds a 4.78 to 3.94 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, and he is a lot more pinpoint, posting a 56.12 to 41.90 significant strikes-accuracy percentage advantage.
Sato has a slight advantage on the ground, and that’s where he’ll likely want to take the fight as soon as possible. Baeza, meanwhile, will want to turn this into a street fight. He has won seven of his nine career professional bouts via KO/TKO, including each of his two fights at the UFC level over Hector Aldana and Matt Brown. Both of the knockout wins for “Caramel Thunder” in the UFC have come in the second round.
Sato knocked out Jason Witt in 48 seconds last time out on June 27 at this very same facility, bouncing back from a submission loss to Belal Muhammad on the UFC 242 card. All three of Sato’s UFC level fights have finished inside the distance, with two wins by knockout and the submission loss to Muhammad. In fact, nine straight pro fights for Sato have finished inside the distance.
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Miguel Baeza vs. Takashi Sato: Betting odds, predictions and picks
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 3:39 p.m. ET.
SATO (+135) is worth playing for the mild upset. He is an experienced fighter who has the punching power to match that of Baeza (-162), something the latter hasn’t seen to date against any of his opponents. Sato can do it in a number of ways, too. He can wow the judges with his technical ability, and he can finish on the ground if need be, too, although that’s not his specialty. Sato has 19 career pro fights, with 12 ending via KO/TKO (11-1).
The lean is to Sato in this bout, as he has the experience and ability to win it in a number of different ways. SATO BY KO/TKO, DQ or SUBMISSION (+230) is a decent value on the 5-way line, too, and take UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-176) as part of a winning ticket.
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Also see:
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