Betting line shifts in Auburn football’s favor over Ole Miss

All things are pointing to Auburn this weekend.

The Auburn vs Ole Miss line continues to grow in favor of the Tigers.

Auburn opened as a 0.5 point favorite on Sunday. The line has since grown. In my mind, there are a few reasons for this.

This game is being played in Jordan-Hare Stadium. The home field advantage will definitely play a factor in this matchup. Matt Corral also isn’t fully healthy. The Rebels could barely run him against LSU and it slowed the offense down. The oddsmakers may also be taking into account that Auburn is 32-5 vs Ole Miss since 1971.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook

Line: Auburn (-1.5)

O/U: 65.5

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How will Auburn handle a ‘Not 100 percent’ Matt Corral?

How do you think Auburn will handle Corral?

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According to his head coach, Matt Corral was not 100% healthy heading into his matchup with LSU this past Saturday.

There were rumors spread about who would start at QB over Corral assuming he wouldn’t play. Whether it be John Rhys Plumlee, who ran for over a thousand yards as a quarterback in 2019, Kinkead Dent, the second-string QB, or Luke Altmeyer, the redshirt freshman who Kiffin said would most likely get the start if Corral wasn’t healthy.

Corral then proceeded to play the entire game, accounting for two touchdowns.

Kiffin said post-game that Corral still isn’t 100% healthy, and neither are some of his teammates (Deep-threat receiver Braylon Sanders is out will an injury as well).

Corral had his worst mark passing this season, completing 78% of his passes but only throwing for 185 yards. He only managed to pick up 24 yards on the ground and was sacked three times. Keep in mind this was against a porous LSU defense that doesn’t thrive in stopping much of anything.

It’s clear that Corral is hurt. This does not bode well for Ole Miss, who will be playing a much better Auburn defense this weekend. Corral is expected to play, and there are a couple of ways Auburn could handle him.

They could do what LSU tried to do, which is drop eight into coverage, pray that Ole Miss doesn’t run the ball, slow the game down, and put pressure on Corral on third down because he couldn’t escape (Corral averaged two yards a carry).

Or, Auburn could elect to stop the Ole Miss ground game (Ole Miss ran the ball 50 times against LSU) and force Corral to throw on third and long and just hope that the secondary doesn’t get lost like it has at certain times this season. Note that this didn’t work for three quarters against Arkansas.

The Tigers have their options defensively, but point being it may be easier to slow down this Ole Miss offense if Corral isn’t operating at 100%. We’ve seen him be turnover prone in the past, so Auburn should throw everything including the kitchen sink at him to see if he cracks.

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Auburn football opens as very slight underdog to Ole Miss

What do you think the line should be for Auburn vs Ole Miss?

Auburn opens as an incredibly narrow underdog against the No. 10 team in the nation.

The Ole Miss Rebels (6-1, 3-1 SEC) will travel up to Auburn to take on the No. 18 Tigers (5-2, 2-1 SEC) in a battle that has some very serious SEC West implications. Auburn controls its own destiny to Atlanta. If they win out (ESPN’s FPI gives Auburn a 0.3% chance to do so), they’re in the SEC championship game. Ole Miss needs a little extra help. If the Rebels defeat Auburn, they will need Alabama to lose one more game on their remaining schedule. Alabama’s best chance to lose (according to ESPN’s FPI) will come in their regular-season finale against Auburn (Auburn has a 17.3% chance to win as of October 24th).

As would be expected, because the game is in Jordan-Hare Stadium, the line for this game is incredibly small in favor of Ole Miss.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook

Line: Ole Miss (-0.5)

O/U: 66.5

Auburn is coming off of a huge momentum-building win over Arkansas on the road. The Tigers took their bye week this weekend as well, giving themselves time to both rest and prepare for Ole Miss on October 30th.

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Kickoff time, TV channel announced for Auburn vs Ole Miss

Auburn will be playing under the lights on Halloween’s eve against Ole Miss.

Auburn has received a primetime slot for their matchup with Ole Miss.

Kickoff between the No. 19 Tigers (5-2, 2-1 SEC) and the No. 12 Rebels (5-1, 2-1 SEC) will begin at 6:00 p.m. central time on ESPN, according to the SEC. Ole Miss will be coming off of a home game against LSU, whereas Auburn will be coming off of a bye week.

Auburn currently leads the series 34-10-0, Having won the last five straight matchups against Ole Miss by an average of 12 points.

Auburn desperately needs this win to stay in the SEC West hunt. The Tigers can afford to lose one more game, and if they beat Alabama at the end of the season, the crown is theirs. However, if they lose to Ole Miss, the Rebels would then have to lose Texas A&M, Vanderbilt. or Mississippi State, and I’ve got a feeling that isn’t going to happen.

If you’ve got a ticket to this game, I’d use it. This is going to be a huge game.

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Auburn football schedule analysis: Grading the Ole Miss Rebels

Does Ole Miss finish above Auburn in the SEC West?

This is the sixth article in a series grading Auburn’s opponents by position groups.

Ole Miss couldn’t stop a nosebleed in 2021.

The Rebels were predicted to take a marginal step forward by multiple media outlets on defense after only allowing 26.5 points per game in 2019. The results in 2020 were less than desirable, to say the least. Ole Miss allowed 38.3 points per game, their worst mark since the turn of the century. This was the worst defense Ole Miss has potentially ever had.

What kept the Rebs going in 2020?

That Matt Corral-led offense was elite. Ole Miss finished third nationally in total yards per game (555.5 yards per game). With eight starters returning, there’s no reason to believe that Ole Miss couldn’t make another run at least a breakeven 6-6 season.

Here each of the Rebels’ position groups, graded accordingly.

Auburn vs. Ole Miss: 1st half analysis

Thoughts and analysis after the first half of Auburn vs. Ole Miss.

Auburn and Ole Miss are tied 14-14 at halftime as the two battle on an unseasonably cold day in Oxford.

Here are some rapid reactions to the first half:

  • I’m sure that, much like myself, all Auburn fans stayed calm after the first drive when we saw absolutely zero of Tank Bigsby on the field on a three-and-out. I understand giving Shaun Shivers the chance, though.
  • Neither of these teams can defend the run and it is both amazing and miserable to watch. Even when Auburn or Ole Miss know that the run is coming, they still can’t stop it. Expect that to continue in the second half.
  • Chad Morris needs a lesson in clock management.
  • Seth Williams and Bo Nix seemed to work through their problems from last week but if you listen to the SEC Network announcers, it was as if the two were still fighting like the Hatfields and McCoys. Wait, is that still a thing?
  • Speaking of Williams, holy cow what a leap over that Ole Miss defender. Bruce Pearl should sign him up just for tip-offs.
  • That interception by Matt Corral on Ole Miss’ first drive was awful and shows someone that is inside his own head right now. Roger McCreary was right there yet Corral didn’t seem to see him.
  • Okay, let’s talk about how special Tank has been. In the first 30 minutes, he is averaging 5.1 yards per rush. I’m still questioning why he is returning kickoffs.
  • John Rhys Plumlee is not going to throw the ball. It is a lot like watching the 2018 Mississippi State game when you just knew that Nick Fitzgerald was going to run it. Somehow the Tigers can’t stop him and Ole Miss might continue with this two-quarterback system.
  • The hurry-up is really affecting Auburn’s defense as the Rebels aren’t giving them a chance to make substitutions. Hmmm, didn’t we used to see that somewhere?
  • If Nix throws the ball more than 25 times this game, it will be a coaching mistake. Ride the Tank! (And Shivers and D.J.)

The Auburn Wire’s predictions for Tigers vs. Ole Miss

The staff of The Auburn Writer makes their predictions for the Tigers matchup against Ole Miss.

It will be a battle for Auburn on Saturday as the Tigers travel to Oxford to take on Ole Miss. Gus Malzahn’s team is coming off a disappointing 30-22 loss to South Carolina while the Rebels were shut down by Arkansas in a 33-21 loss to the Razorbacks.

Both teams will try to get back in the winning column as the two meet at noon on the SEC Network.

Here are the predictions from the staff at The Auburn Wire.

Shea Brennaman

The loser of this weekend’s game will down come to which is worse: Auburn’s offense or Ole Miss’ defense. Last week the Tigers were unable to capitalize in the red zone against South Carolina during the last half of the game while the Ole Miss defense had a hard time containing Arkansas after quarterback Matt Corral threw 6 interceptions. Both teams look to turn it around this weekend, but I truly believe this game is a must-win scenario for head coach Gus Malzahn. For once I will give Malzahn the benefit of the doubt. I believe this weekend Auburn’s offense will rely more on runningback Tank Bigsby than they will their passing game. As always I expect this game to be ugly but I’m staying close to the line on this one.

Prediction: Auburn 28, Ole Miss 24

J.D. McCarthy

The fewer points scored in this game the better Auburn will do. The Ole Miss defense is bad, but this Auburn offense has not shown the ability to win a shootout, which is what Ole Miss has to do. The pressure will be on Kevin Steele and the defense to step up, they need to either force a couple turnovers or make the Rebels kick field goals.

The offense will look better in a favorable matchup and will lean on a ground home that looks like the strength of the team and will win in a close one.

Prediction: Auburn 38, Ole Miss 31

Brian Stultz

My friends in the New York Auburn Alumni Chapter love to take shots at me in our group text and, when the opportunity presents itself, in person. They have known to give me crap about things I write during the week and after games, sometimes reading what I am typing over my shoulder. I miss this group since I have been quarantining down in South Florida, but once again, they won’t like what I’m about to write.

Does anyone trust Auburn to outscore Ole Miss here, even with the Rebels defense being one of the worst in the nation? I certainly don’t. Bo Nix is now a liability for the Auburn offense and only if the Tigers can go for over 250 yards on the ground will they will be able to pull out this game.

I don’t expect Chad Morris will give Tank, D.J. and Shaun the chance.

But seriously, if ever in NYC during a game weekend, check out the greatest alumni chapter ever at St. Pats Bar on 46th between 5th and 6th Avenues.

Prediction: Ole Miss 34, Auburn 24