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The Atlanta Falcons (6-6) and Minnesota Vikings (10-2) meet Sunday. Kickoff from U.S. Bank Stadium is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Falcons vs. Vikings odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
The Falcons suffered their third straight loss, falling to the LA Chargers 17-13 as 1-point home favorites. The Under 47 cashed in a sluggish matchup. RB Bijan Robinson had 135 yards and a TD on 32 touches, but QB Kirk Cousins’ 4 interceptions derailed Atlanta’s chances.
The Vikings extended their win streak to 5 games with a dramatic 23-22 victory over the Arizona Cardinals. They failed to cover as 3.5-point home favorites, but the Under 45.5 cashed. QB Sam Darnold‘s TD pass to RB Aaron Jones gave Minnesota the lead with just 1:13 remaining. WR Justin Jefferson hauled in 7 catches for 99 yards in the win.
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Falcons at Vikings odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Saturday at 7:31 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Falcons +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Vikings -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Falcons +5.5 (-105) | Vikings -5.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 46 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Falcons at Vikings key injuries
Falcons
- CB Mike Hughes (neck) questionable
- RB Jase McClellan (knee) out
- DT Ruke Orhorhoro (foot) out
Vikings
- LS Andrew DePaola (hand) questionable
- CB Stephon Gilmore (hamstring) out
- LB Patrick Jones (knee) questionable
- DE Harrison Phillips (back) questionable
- K Will Reichard (quad) questionable
- OL Dalton Risner (back) questionable
- LB Andrew Van Ginkel (thigh) questionable
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Falcons at Vikings picks and predictions
Prediction
Falcons 24, Vikings 21
Moneyline
BET FALCONS (+200).
It’s a revenge game for Cousins, returning to Minnesota after signing a big-money deal with Atlanta this offseason. The Falcons need this win to stay in the NFC Wild Card hunt, trailing Washington for the final spot. Meanwhile, the Vikings’ 5-game win streak has been shaky, with an average margin of just 5.4 points.
Minnesota barely pulled off a win against Arizona in Week 13, despite being outplayed, and they’ll now be without top corner Gilmore. That opens the door for Falcons WR Drake London, who saw 16 targets from Cousins in last week’s loss to the Chargers.
The Vikings’ defense has struggled lately, giving up 366 yards per game over their last 3 games, including 277 through the air—fifth worst in the league. Cousins knows this defense well and will be motivated to show up in his former home.
The Vikings’ good fortune ends in Week 14. The Falcons leave Minneapolis with a much-needed win.
Against the spread
PASS.
If you’d like to play it safer by taking the Falcons getting the points, I’d understand, but I prefer getting those plus odds on the moneyline.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 46 (-110).
The trends strongly point to this game hitting the Under. The Falcons have gone Under in 4 straight games and 5 of their last 6, while the Vikings have stayed Under in 4 of their last 5 contests.
Cousins is overdue for a solid outing—he hasn’t thrown a TD pass since Nov. 3 and has been intercepted 6 times since then. Atlanta’s offense has been inconsistent, but their defense stepped up last week, sacking QB Justin Herbert 4 times and holding the Chargers under 20 points for the first time since Week 7.
Minnesota’s defense gives up yards but not points, allowing just 18.3 per game, ranking fifth in the league. With both teams relying on defense, this one feels like a classic low-scoring affair. The Under is the best bet—grab it while the value’s there!
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