The Atlanta Braves (76-70) tangle with the San Francisco Giants (97-52) Sunday at Oracle Park in the finale of their three-game series with the first pitched scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Braves vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Francisco won the first two games of this series with Friday’s victory coming in extra innings, 6-5, and a 2-run single by Giants C Curt Casali was good enough in Saturday’s 2-0 win.
Season series: Giants lead 3-2.
LHP Max Fried gets the nod for the Braves. He is 11-7 with a 3.47 ERA (142 2/3 IP, 55 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 over 25 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 7 K in Atlanta’s 5-3 win against the Miami Marlins Sept. 12.
- Picked up a no-decision in Atlanta’s 6-5 victory over the Giants Aug. 27, with 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 5 K.
- vs. Giants on the current roster (64 PA): 3.66 FIP with a .203 batting average (BA), .258 wOBA, .294 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 21.9 K% and 84.2 mph exit velocity (EV).
RHP Anthony DeSclafani takes the hill for the Giants. He is 12-6 with a 3.24 ERA (152 2/3 IP, 55 ER), 1.09 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 across 28 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 6-1, with 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 3 K Tuesday at the San Diego Padres.
- Lost at Atlanta Aug. 29, 9-0, with 3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 4 K.
- vs. Braves on the current roster (95 PA): 6.38 FIP with a .307 BA, .392 wOBA, .546 xSLG, 27.4 K% and 92.8 mph EV.
Braves at Giants odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at noon ET.
- Money line: Braves +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Giants -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Braves +1.5 (-200) | Giants -1.5 (+160)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: +100 | U:-125)
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Prediction
Braves 5, Giants 2
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the BRAVES (+105) because Fried has been dialed in since the All-Star break and Atlanta’s bullpen has been pitching better than San Francisco’s this month.
Fried is 5-2 over 11 starts in the second half of the year with a 2.19 ERA (4.71 ERA in the first half), 0.97 WHIP (1.39 WHIP in the first half) and 4.7 K/BB (2.9 K/BB in the first half).
Furthermore, Giants relievers rank in the bottom-10 of the majors in xFIP, SIERA and K-BB% in September. Atlanta’s bullpen has the seventh-best xFIP and ninth-best HR/9 this month.
What’s holding me back from betting this game heavier is obvious: San Francisco is 41-15 as a home favorite and Giants hitters are second in wRC+, wOBA and WAR in September.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS even though I’d love some insurance for our wager on the Braves’ money line and Atlanta is 22-10 ATS as a road underdog.
But, there’s no way betting the Braves has a good return on investment against a San Francisco squad that has the third-best cover rate as a home favorite with a 31-25 ATS record.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-125) because it’s both a “sharp” and public play hence the Under having more vig.
The Braves played to the Under in Fried’s previous eight starts as an underdog and the Under is 4-0-1 in DeSclafani’s last five starts.
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