The Houston Astros (51-33) finish up their four-game series with the host Cleveland Indians (42-38) Sunday at Progressive Field. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. Indians odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Houston looks to complete a four-game sweep of Cleveland Sunday after the Astros won the first three games by a combined score of 16-7.
Season series: Astros lead 3-0.
RHP Zack Greinke makes his 18th start for the Astros. Greinke is 8-2 with a 3.65 ERA (103 2/3 IP, 42 ER), 1.15 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: No-decision with 5 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 4 K in Houston’s 9-7 loss to the Baltimore Orioles Monday.
- vs. Indians on the current roster: 56 at-bats with a .286/.317/.446 slash line, 10/3 K/BB, 2 HR and 5 RBIs.
RHP Cal Quantrill is on the mound for the Indians. Quantrill is 0-2 with a 4.11 ERA (50 1/3 IP, 23 ER), 1.41 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 across six starts and 18 relief appearances.
- Last outing: No-decision with 3 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 2 BB and 3 K Wednesday against the Detroit Tigers.
- 2021 home splits: 0-0 with a 3.38 ERA (21 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 1.41 WHIP and 3.2 K/BB rate over three starts and eight relief appearances.
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Astros at Indians odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:05 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Astros -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Indians +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
- Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (+100) | Indians +1.5 (-120)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Prediction
Astros 9, Indians 3
Money line (ML)
BET the ASTROS (-155) for three-fourths of a unit because they have the third-best road record in the majors at 25-17 and are by far the most productive lineup on the road.
Houston is first with 121 wRC+ on the road, first in road wOBA and OPS, and has the highest hard-contact rate on the road.
Even though Greinke doesn’t have the same caliber of stuff he did when he was an annual Cy Young contender, he is still a top of the rotation starter and the Astros are 12-5 when he starts while the Indians are just 7-17 when Quantrill makes an appearance.
Furthermore, Greinke has been much more effective on the road compared to his home starts. He is 5-0 on the road with a 2.06 ERA and 0.86 WHIP, compared to a 5.26 home ERA and 1.44 WHIP. He has a 4.4 K/BB rate on the road and just a 3.0 K/BB rate at home.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS since we are paying a steep enough price for Houston’s money line and the Astros -1.5 (+100) isn’t a big enough payout considering they have a 15-17 ATS record as a road favorite this season.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET the OVER 9 (-120) for 1 unit because these teams have a combined 17-5 O/U record when these starters are on the mound and the Over cashed in eight of their past 11 meetings in Cleveland.
The Astros are also 24-16-2 O/U on the road and the Indians are 9-4-1 O/U as home underdogs.
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