Tag: Astros Angels odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Houston Astros meet American League West rival Los Angeles Angels on Opening Day Thursday at Angel Stadium with the first pitch set for 9:38 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. Angels odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Houston won the season series last season 13-6, more than doubling the Angels in runs scored 117-58.

The Astros won the AL West last season with a 95-67 and lost the World Series 4-2 to the Atlanta Braves.

The Angels had yet another disappointing season in 2021, finishing 77-85, 18 games behind the Astros and going Under their projected season win total for a fourth consecutive year.

Astros at Angels: Projected starters

LHP Framber Valdez vs. RHP Shohei Ohtani

Valdez is on the mound Opening Day for Houston after going 11-6 in 2021 with a 3.14 ERA (134 2/3 IP, 47 ER), 1.25 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in 22 starts.

  • 2021 vs. Angels: 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA (12 IP, 4 ER), 12 H, 12 K and 8 BB in 2 starts.
  • vs. Angels on the current roster: 4.67 FIP with a .290 batting average (BA), .348 wOBA, .443 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 16.8 K% and 88.9 mph exit velocity (EV) in 113 plate appearances (PA).

Ohtani is making his first Opening Day start. He won the 2021 AL MVP as L.A.’s best starter while hitting the third-most home runs in the league (46). Ohtani was 9-2 in 23 starts last season with a 3.18 ERA (130 1/3 IP, 46 ER), 1.09 WHIP, 10.8 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9.

  • 2021 vs. Astros: 0-1 with a 6.10 ERA (10 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 13 H, 11 K and 1 BB in 2 starts.
  • vs. Astros on the current roster: 2.95 FIP with a .283 BA, .326 wOBA, .343 xSLG, 24.1 K% and 85.1 mph EV in 58 PA.

Astros at Angels odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:06 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Astros +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Angels -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-200) | Angels -1.5 (+160)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Astros at Angels prediction and picks

Prediction

Astros 6, Angels 3

Money line

GIMME the ASTROS (+102) as a fade against the Angels (-125) as a favorite and since the presumed sharp side of the market is backing Houston.

According to Pregame.com, roughly 60% of the cash is on the Astros but a slight majority of the bets placed are on the Angels. Typically, in sports betting, it’s profitable to follow the money when it’s counter to the public because sharps wager more money than your average Joe.

It feels like most casual bettors will take L.A. here since it’s at full strength and Ohtani is on the mound. However, the Angels snapped an 8-year Opening Day losing streak in 2021 so it’s typically profitable fading L.A. early on.

Furthermore, L.A.’s lineup struggled last season even when Mike Trout was healthy. Trout’s final game of 2021 was May 17 and up until then the Angels batters ranked 23rd in WAR, 27th in both hard-hit rate and EV. On the other hand, Houston’s lineup has been the best in the AL in recent seasons.

BET ASTROS (+102).

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Run line/Against the spread

SPRINKLE on the ASTROS -1.5 (+165) ALTERNATE RL because Houston won by at least 2 runs in 12 of its 13 victories over L.A. last season and this payout is chunky enough to throw some change at.

Over/Under

PASS with a “lean” to the Over 8.5 (-130) because of all the firepower in both dugouts and it’s going to be a hot night in Anaheim so the ball could jump. But, a vast majority of the market is betting the Over as well and I don’t like following the herd in sports betting.

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Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Houston Astros (91-61) look for the sweep in their four-game series with the Los Angeles Angels (72-80) when the clubs meet Thursday. First pitch from Angel Stadium is scheduled for 9:38 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Astros vs. Angels odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Astros RHP Lance McCullers Jr. (12-4, 3.11 ERA) makes his 27th start this season. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 through 150 1/3 IP.

  • Is 2-1 with a 2.10 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and 10.2 K/9 over 25 2/3 IP through four starts against the Angels in 2021.
  • Owns a 2.53 ERA and 11.8 K/9 through 64 IP across 11 starts on the road this year.

Angels RHP Alex Cobb (8-3, 3.59 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 through 82 2/3 IP.

  • Making his second start since returning from the injured list after missing all of August and half of September. Pitched 5 scoreless innings on the road against the Chicago White Sox in his return Sept. 16.
  • Allowed just 3 home runs on the season, although that number is likely a bit suppressed by a 6.3% HR/FB rate.

Astros at Angels odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:40 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Astros -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Angels +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (-103) | Angels +1.5 (-117)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Prediction

Houston 6, Los Angeles 2

Money line (ML)

Los Angeles is going to have its work cut out for it to end its six-game skid Thursday. The Astros have taken the first three games of the series by a combined score of 29-10 and seem to be in a fine position to secure the series sweep.

Houston is an elite-hitting club. The Astros are second in wRC+, third in wOBA and fourth in OPS in September. For the season, they are first in wRC+ and wOBA, while ranking third in OPS against right-handed pitching on the season. The Angels grade out as below-average against righties and are dead last in those categories in September.

BET the ASTROS (-175) to close out this four-game set.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

While Cobb has had a bit of a resurgent season, at least compared to his Baltimore years, he is not beyond giving up a few runs in the right scenario. One of his shortest starts of the season came April 22 at Houston when he allowed 4 earned runs on 6 hits and 3 walks over just 2 2/3 innings.

While neither bullpen has been exceptional in September, the Angels relievers have had an exceedingly difficult month. Los Angeles is 25th in K-BB%, 26th in SIERA and 27th in xFIP.

Anticipating that McCullers extends deeper into the game than Cobb only further exacerbates the situation for the Angels pitching staff.

BACK HOUSTON -1.5 (-103).

Over/Under (O/U)

I’m inclined to believe that this game stays Under, but with the Astros producing 9, 10 and 10 runs in the first three games of the series I simply can’t bring myself to actually come down on that side of things.

The Angels may not need to do much damage to push things over the number Thursday even if Cobb limits the Astros production comparatively to the first three games of the series.

Moreover, two bullpens that are struggling in September don’t inspire confidence that there may not be late runs scored.

I’m going to PASS on the total and avoid the situation altogether.

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Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Houston Astros (89-61) meet the Los Angeles Angels (72-78) Tuesday for the second game of their four-game series at Angel Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 9:38 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Astros vs. Angels odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Houston took the series opener Monday 10-0

Season series: Astros lead 11-5.

RHP Jose Urquidy takes the mound for the Astros. Urquidy is 7-3 with a 3.38 ERA (90 2/3 IP, 34 ER), 0.98 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 18 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 7-2, with 6 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB and 6 K Wednesday at the Texas Rangers.
  • Urquidy earned a no-decision in Houston’s 9-1 home win over L.A. May 12 with a stat line of 3 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB and 4 K.
  • vs. Angels on the current roster (19 PA): 5.39 FIP with a .421 batting average, .460 wOBA, .567 expected slugging percentage, 15.8 K% and 85.1 mph exit velocity.

RHP Packy Naughton is on the hill for the Angels. Naughton is 0-2 with a 4.32 ERA (16 2/3 IP, 8 ER), 19 H, 8 BB and 11 K across three starts and two relief appearances in his rookie season.

Astros at Angels odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:47 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Astros -230 (bet $230 to win $100) | Angels +180 (bet $100 to win $180)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Astros -2.5 (+105) | Angels +2.5 (-130)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)

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Prediction

Astros 8, Angels 3

Money line (ML)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Astros (-230) because they are clearly the right side since it’s September so Houston is ramping up for the postseason and L.A. is planning offseason vacations.

However, the Astros are just a little too expensive for an outright win and I’m hesitant to include them in a parlay because of their price as a road favorite.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the ASTROS -2.5 (+105) for a tiny wager because their lineup ranks in the top 3 of wOBA, wRC+ and WAR this month whereas L.A.’s lineup is dead-last in each of those metrics for Sept.

Furthermore, this is a “pros” and “joes” play with both sides of the market laying it with the Astros, which has caused sportsbooks to increase Houston’s money line.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (+105) because the “pros” and “joes” are on the Over as well and have steamed the total up from the 9-run opener.

Also, the Astros-Angels have played to the Over in 10 of their last 14 meetings in L.A., Houston is 10-5 O/U when Urquidy gets the start and the Astros are 39-24-4 O/U against AL West teams.

I’d feel stronger about the OVER 9.5 (+105) if L.A.’s lineup wasn’t a complete no-show over the past three weeks.

However, as we saw Monday, the Astros are dialed in at the plate and the Angels’ bullpen is weak enough that Houston can push this game Over the total itself.

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Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Los Angeles Angels (72-77) host the Houston Astros (88-61) Monday for the start of their four-game series at Angel Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 9:38 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Astros vs. Angels odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Astros lead 10-5.

LHP Framber Valdez is Houston’s projected starter. Valdez is 10-5 with a 3.26 ERA (116 IP, 42 ER), 1.27 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 across 19 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 10-5, with 5 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 5 BB and 6 K vs. the Angels Sept. 10 in his only 2021 appearance against L.A.
  • vs. Angels on the current roster (73 PA): 4.72 FIP with a .270 batting average (BA), .331 wOBA, .355 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 20.5 K% and 87.3 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Jaime Barria is on the rubber for the Angels. Barria is 2-3 with a 4.93 ERA (49 1/3 IP, 27 ER), 1.54 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 5.5 K/9 across nine starts and two relief appearances.

  • Last outing: No-decision in L.A.’s 3-1 loss at the Astros Sept. 12 with 4 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 6 K.
  • Barria is 0-1 against Houston this season with a 5.14 ERA (7 IP, 4 ER), 11 H, 5 BB and 7 K in two starts.
  • vs. Astros on the current roster (134 PA): 6.53 FIP with a .308 BA, .410 wOBA, .453 xSLG, 20.9 K% and 89.0 mph EV.

Astros at Angels odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:02 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Astros -220 (bet $220 to win $100) | Angels +175 (bet $100 to win $175)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (-135) | Angels +1.5 (+110)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)

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Prediction

Astros 6, Angels 5

Money line (ML)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Angels (+175) because I like them on the run line, L.A. has a winning record both at home and against lefty starters and the line hasn’t moved much from the opening number despite one-sided action on the Astros.

However, Houston is 44-22 vs. AL West foes, is playing much better baseball than Los Angeles at the moment and the Angels’ roster is probably starting to make offseason plans while the Astros are ramping up for postseason baseball.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the ANGELS +1.5 (+110) for a tiny wager – if at all – because I much prefer the Over than a side in this contest.

That said, L.A.’s hitting splits against left-handed pitching are around league average and Valdez only got a win over the Angels in their last meeting because of enormous run support. In fact, Valdez’s FIP vs. L.A. Sept. 10 was his highest of the year for any start and his EV was the fourth-highest.

Houston holds an edge in the three most important phases of the game but that’s accounted for in the pricing and the ANGLES +1.5 (+110) is the only way I’d play it. Again, I much prefer the total in this game.

Over/Under (O/U)

BET OVER 8.5 (-135) because neither starter has looked good against their respective opponent and L.A.’s bullpen has really struggled this month. The way I envision this game playing out is the Angels get an early lead on Valdez then the Astros storm back vs. an L.A. bullpen that’s in the bottom 10 of xFIP, SIERA and K-BB% in September.

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Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Los Angeles Angels (58-58) host the Houston Astros (68-46) Friday for the opener of their three-game series at Angel Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 9:38 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Astros vs. Angels odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Astros lead 6-3.

RHP Zack Greinke is Houston’s projected starter. Greinke is 10-3 with a 3.69 ERA (136 2/3 IP, 56 ER), 1.16 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 23 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 3 K in Houston’s 5-4 loss August 6 to the Minnesota Twins.
  • Greinke has gotten two no-decisions against L.A. this season with a 2.57 ERA (14 IP, 4 ER), 15 H, 1 BB and 10 K in two starts.
  • vs. Angels on the current roster (150 PA): 5.08 FIP with a .283 batting average (BA), .344 wOBA, .341 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 13.3 K% and 83.9 mph exit velocity (EV).

LHP Patrick Sandoval is L.A.’s projected starter. Sandoval is 3-5 with a 3.39 ERA (82 1/3 IP, 31 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 in 13 starts and three relief appearances.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 5 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 4 K in 4-3 Angels win August 6 at the Los Angeles Dodgers.
  • 2021 home splits: 1-4 with a 3.50 ERA (43 2/3 IP, 17 ER), 1.28 WHIP and 10.9 K/9 in seven starts and two bullpen outings.

Astros at Angels odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:40 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Astros -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Angels +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (+120) | Angels +1.5 (-150)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Prediction

Angels 5, Astros 3

Money line (ML)

BET the ANGELS (+115) for 1 unit since L.A. has the edge in both relief and starting pitching and there’s been heavy “reverse line movement” in L.A.’s direction.

For instance, the Astros are getting nearly 85% of the action but Houston’s money line has dropped from -155 on the opener to the current number according to pregame.com.

It’s a red flag in sports betting when the House makes the more popular side cheaper. For whatever reason oddsmakers are trying to entice more pro-Astros action and we don’t want to play into their hands.

The reason for the reverse line movement is because L.A.’s pitching staff might have an edge in this game. Sandoval has a lower xFIP and SIERA than Greinke this season and grades out much better than Greinke in EV, xSLG, expected wOBA, K% and whiff rate.

Furthermore, L.A.’s bullpen has been lights out following the All-Star Game. The Angels relievers rank eighth in both home run per nine-inning rate and FIP and fourth in WAR in the second half of the year while Houston’s bullpen is below-average in each of those categories.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because the Angels +1.5 (-150) is a little more than I’m willing to risk given they are just 16-34 ATS in games against AL West foes while the Astros are 26-18 ATS.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (+105) for a tiny wager because Greinke has been awesome on the road this year and I like L.A.’s pitching staff in this spot.

Greinke is 5-0 with a 2.67 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 4.3 K/BB on the road with a 4.58 ERA,1.35 WHIP and 2.9 K/BBat home.

However, I’d wait closer to the first pitch in hopes of getting a 9-run total since that’s where the market is headed. Also, these teams have a 21-14 O/U record when these starters take the mound.

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Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Houston Astros (4-0) meet the Los Angeles Angels (3-1) Monday for a mini two-game series at Angel Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 9:38 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. Angels odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Astros completed a four-game sweep of the 2020 AL West champion Oakland Athletics with a 9-2 win Sunday. Houston outscored Oakland 35-9 in the four games this past weekend.

Los Angeles won back-to-back games and three out of four against the Chicago White Sox, including a 7-4 win Sunday after a 3-run walk-off home run in the ninth by 1B Jared Walsh—his second home run of the game.

RHP Luis Garcia will making his second career start for the Astros. He earned a no-decision in 5 IP with 0 ER, 1 H, 4 K and 2 BB in his first start last season against the Athletics.

The 24-year-old righty is 0-1 with a 2.92 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 9 K over 12 1/3 IP spanning 5 career appearances with 1 start.

LHP José Quintana makes his Angels debut Monday. He played for both Chicago teams over his first nine seasons.

Quintana pitched for the White Sox from 2012-2017 then was traded in-city to the Cubs where he played from 2017-20.

He had only our appearances with a lone start for the Cubs last season and finished 0-0 with a 4.50 ERA, 5 ER, 10 H, 12 K, 3 BB in 10 IP.

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Astros at Angels odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:30 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Astros -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Angels -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (+145) | Angels +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under: 10 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Angels 6, Astros 2

Money line (ML)

The Astros were 12-10 vs. lefty starters compared to 17-21 against righties in 2020 and they beat two Athletics lefty starters this past weekend.

That’s the reason why there is value on the ANGELS (-115) in this game. Houston’s win-loss record last season against lefties is a bit flukey considering the lineup was bottom-10 in wRC+, wOBA and OPS vs. lefties in 2020.

Also, Los Angeles won six of its last seven games against a right-handed starter. BET ANGELS (-115) for 1 unit.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS on the run line but “LEAN” toward using Angels +1.5 (-175) in a parlay with another similarly priced favorite or run line.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” toward UNDER 10 (-115) for a quarter-unit if at all because the market is barrelling into the Over, steaming it up from the 8.5-run opener. I’d definitely prefer to “fade” the market rather than follow it.

Most of this action is due to Quintana looking terrible in his 10 innings pitched last year and the Over cashing in nine straight Astros-Angels meetings.

Quintana should be motivated by the change of scenery and he looked good in Spring Training where he went 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA (14 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 15 K, 8 BB) across 5 starts.

That being said, the Angels’ money line is my favorite play in this game.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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