AS Roma welcomes Bayer Leverkusen to Stadio Olimpico Thursday in the 1st leg of the Europa League semifinal. Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET (Paramount+). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the AS Roma vs. Bayer Leverkusen odds, and make our best Europa League soccer bets, picks and predictions.
Roma, which sits 7th in Serie A competition, is 10-5-2 (2 draws) at home this season. Its strength is defense, allowing just .97 goals per game. Offensively, it is led by Argentian star F Paulo Dybala, who has 11 goals in 20 starts. Roma took down Feyenoord a combined 4-2 in the quarterfinals and Real Sociedad a combined 2-0 in the Round of 16.
Bayer, which sits 6th in the Bundesliga, is just 6-5-4 on the road this season. Its strength has been offense, averaging 1.74 goals per game. It allows 1.39 per game. Bayer is led by French F Moussa Diaby, who has 9 goals in 30 starts. Bayer beat Union SG a combined 5-2 in the quarterfinals and Ferencvaros a combined 4-0 in the Round of 16.
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AS Roma vs. Bayer Leverkusen odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 11:34 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: AS Roma +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Bayer Leverkusen +260 (bet $100 to win $260) | Draw +225
- Over/Under: 2.5 (O: +120 | U: -165)
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AS Roma vs. Bayer Leverkusen picks and predictions
Prediction
AS Roma 2, Bayer Leverkusen 1
Moneyline (ML)
BET AS ROMA (+115).
Roma won both its home quarterfinal and Round of 16 matchups in the Europa League. It has wins over Juventus and Inter Milan at home as well. It has won 3 of its last 5 games at home throughout all competitions.
Bayer, on the other hand, has struggled immensely on the road in league play. It has won all 3 road matches in Europa competition, Roma will be the toughest test yet.
Bayer has turned it up as of late, but lost 9 of its 1st 14 games throughout all competitions this season. It isn’t quite at that top level, and Roma, at home, should be able to come out on top.
Over/Under (O/U)
LEAN OVER 2.5 (+120).
Roma has gone Over in 3 of its last 6, and Roma’s defense is really the key reason why scoring could be at a premium. The main factor in backing the Over is Bayer though. It has scored 54 goals and allowed 43 in 31 league games.
It has had more than an expected goal in its last 3 Europa League games and has had more than 2 expected goals in 2 of its last 3 Europa matches. Its offense should be able to get on the board. Roma has scored in 5 of its last 6 games as well and has conceded in 5 straight.
Take the OVER 2.5 (+120).
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