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The Arkansas State Red Wolves (18-15, 11-7 Sun Belt) battle the James Madison Dukes (30-3, 16-3) on Monday in the Sun Belt Championship. Tip from Pensacola Bay Center is scheduled for 6 p.m. ET (ESPN2). Below, we analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Arkansas State vs. James Madison odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
Fourth-seeded Arkansas State upset the No. 1 Appalachian State Mountaineers 67-65 on Sunday, winning outright as a 5.5-point underdog while the Under (145.5) cashed. G Freddy Hicks scored 19 points including a jumper as time expired to send the Red Wolves to the title game. Arkansas State is looking to go to only their 2nd NCAA Tournament in school history.
No. 2 seed James Madison ended 11th-seeded Texas State’s Cinderella run in conference tournament 73-68. The Dukes failed to cover the 12.5-point spread, but the Over (138.5) cashed. G Noah Freidel picked a good night to have his season-high in points with 28. He also added 3 rebounds, 3 assists and 3 steals. James Madison dominated on the glass, outrebounding the Bobcats 39-29. The Dukes have not been to the Big Dance since 2013.
These 2 teams played Feb. 7 with James Madison winning 77-73 as Arkansas State covered as a 5-point underdog and the Under (161) cashed.
– Rankings courtesy of the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll.
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Arkansas State vs. James Madison odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:15 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Arkansas State +195 (bet $100 to win $195) | James Madison -240 (bet $240 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Arkansas State +5.5 (-110) | James Madison -5.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 153.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Arkansas State vs. James Madison picks and predictions
Prediction
James Madison 77, Arkansas State 72
Moneyline
PASS.
As confident as I am that James Madison wins the Sun Belt Championship on Monday night, I’m not going to put over 2 units down to win 1 in a title game. This will be a tight affair and I’ll save my bet for the spread and/or the total.
Against the spread
BET ARKANSAS STATE +5.5 (-110).
The Red Wolves have had a strong finish to the season which has concluded with a great run through the Sun Belt Tournament. They have won 8 of their last 10 games and covered the spread in 9.
James Madison had won 30 games this season which is unbelievable. I am confident they win this game, but not that they’ll cover. The Dukes have won 12 straight games, but they’ve covered the spread just once in their last 5 games.
This is a championship so both teams will likely start the game tight with so much on the line. I believe this will come down to the wire.
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Over/Under
BET UNDER 153.5 (-110).
Arkansas State is 1-6-1 against the total in their last 8 games. They’ve really clamped down on the defensive end of the court, allowing just 70 points per game (PPG) over their last 8. That’s nearly 7 points better than their season average.
The Dukes have held their opponents this season under 70 PPG, averaging over 9 steals per game.
In their matchup earlier this season, the total was under 150. I’ll say it again, this is a title game, these teams will come out tight especially in the 1st half. I fully expect this game to go Under the total.
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