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The Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-5) and Bowling Green Falcons (7-5) battle in Thursday’s 68 Ventures Bowl in Mobile, Ala. The opening kickoff at Hancock Whitney Stadium will be at 9 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
Arkansas State has relied much on the ground game in making in-season improvements on offense which helped the team become bowl eligible by going 4-2 over its last 6 games. Over that span, the Red Wolves have rushed for over 180 yards 5 times.
Bowling Green surged to bowl eligibility after a shaky 1-3 start to the season. The Falcons have been especially good on defense and in taking care of the pigskin. They’ve allowed just 99 points and have tallied only 3 giveaways in going 5-1 over their last 6 games.
Both squads are 2-1 against the spread (ATS) over their last 3 games.
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated Wednesday at 3:28 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Arkansas State +250 (bet $100 to win $250) | Bowling Green -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Arkansas State +8.5 (-110) | Bowling Green -8.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 53.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green picks and predictions
Prediction
Bowling Green 34, Arkansas State 21
Moneyline
PASS: no interest here.
Against the spread
ASU is 1-3 ATS across its last 4 bowl games and 2-5 ATS over its last 5.
Bowling Green is the lesser affected side by late-season injuries and portal defections. Most of BGSU’s skilled players are expected to play, and that includes feature RB Terion Stewart, who has gained 6.0 yards per carry over his career. Stewart has rambled for 99-plus yards in 3 of the Falcons’ last 5 games. In success rate, the Arkansas State defense ranks as bottom-5 against the run, so Stewart and company figure to be key contributors.
ASU’s overall defense is very shaky on the success-rate front. Conversely, keeping teams off schedule is something the BGSU defense does quite well. The Falcons are especially good against the pass, and that works against what the Wolves usually like to do.
Add in a monster advantage in red-zone percentages (ASU ranks 132nd in the nation with its 80% rate on TDs allowed inside the 20), and this one sets up for a Falcons conquest by a TD-plus. BACK BOWLING GREEN -8.5 (-110).
Over/Under
Expecting some turnover-short-field looks in a game ticketed for maybe 7-9 TDs. Arkansas State may well be the side trailing in the second half, and they typically are a fast-paced offense that will create more big plays in the air than on the ground.
The lean here is a slight one, but the OVER 53.5 (-105) is the value side.
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