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Arkansas at LSU odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Arkansas at LSU odds and lines, with college football expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Arkansas Razorbacks (2-1, 0-0 SEC) travel to face the No. 13 LSU Tigers (2-1, 1-0 SEC) on Saturday at Tiger Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Arkansas vs. LSU odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.

The Razorbacks are coming off a disappointing 38-31 loss as 9-point home favorites against BYU in Week 3. The Over (48) hit as QB KJ Jefferson completed 24 of his 35 attempts for 247 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception.

LSU steamrolled Mississippi State 41-14 in Week 3 to cover the -9.5-point spread on the road as the Over (54) cashed. WR Malik Nabers caught 13 passes for 239 yards and 2 scores against Mississippi State.

LSU is No. 13 in the US LBM Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports

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Arkansas at LSU odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 11:09 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Arkansas +600 (bet $100 to win $600) | LSU -900 (bet $900 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Arkansas +17.5 (-110) | LSU -17.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 55.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Arkansas at LSU picks and predictions

Prediction

LSU 35, Arkansas 24

Moneyline

Just go ahead and AVOID the moneyline in this game unless you’re confident that Arkansas can pull off the upset on the road. LSU should secure the win, but taking the Tigers at nearly -900 odds isn’t worth the risk.

Against the spread

ARKANSAS +17.5 (-110) is how I’d wager on the spread in this SEC matchup. The Razorbacks will be motivated following their loss to BYU, while the Tigers could be looking ahead to their meeting with No. 16 Ole Miss next week.

While LSU could still win by double digits at home, Arkansas is 6-3-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

Over/Under

Both of these teams have experienced QBs and are coming off high-scoring outputs in Week 3, making OVER 55.5 (-105) an intriguing bet. Through 3 weeks, LSU is averaging 32.5 points per game and Arkansas is posting 29.5.

Also, the Razorbacks just allowed BYU to record 38 points, and the Tigers have recorded 113 total points in the last 2 weeks.

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Arkansas at LSU odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Arkansas Razorbacks at LSU Tigers odds and lines, with college football expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Arkansas Razorbacks (6-3, 2-3 in SEC) head to “Death Valley” to play the LSU Tigers (4-5, 4-4) at Tiger Stadium Saturday for an SEC showdown. The kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Arkansas vs. LSU odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.

Arkansas has won back-to-back games over the Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions and Mississippi State Bulldogs following a three-game losing streak to quality conference opponents.

The Razorbacks are 5-4 ATS and 6-3 with the 22nd-toughest strength of schedule, according to USA TODAY’s Jeff Sagarin.

LSU has lost back-to-back games but covered in its latest outing, which was a 20-14 loss at the No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide as 29.5-point road underdogs in Week 10. The Tigers are 4-5 ATS and 4-5 O/U with the second-hardest strength of schedule, according to Sagarin.

The Tigers have beaten the Razorbacks in five straight meetings but Arkansas has covered in two of the last three games.

Arkansas at LSU odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 7:15 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Arkansas -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | LSU +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Arkansas -2.5 (-110) | LSU +2.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 59.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Arkansas at LSU odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Arkansas 27, LSU 24

Money line

I’m on ARKANSAS (-135) for 1 unit even though this is traditionally a spot where I’d back LSU (+110). The Tigers are tough to beat in primetime games at “Death Valley”.

But, ultimately, LSU just doesn’t have the bodies to compete in the SEC this season hence it being Tigers head coach Ed Orgeron’s final year on the job. For instance, LSU’s secondary has one four-star and three five-star DBs on its injury report.

More importantly, LSU’s defense is solid on standard downs but terrible on passing downs and the Tigers rank 118th in 3rd-down conversion rate. Plus the advanced analytics paint an even grimmer picture of LSU’s defense in passing situations.

The Tigers rank 114th in defensive passing down success rate, 111th in defensive predicted points added (PPA) on passing downs and 117th in explosive plays allowed on passing downs.

On the other hand, Arkansas ranks 17th in offensive passing down PPA and 16th in opponent’s 3rd-down conversion rate.

The bottom line is this will be the difference-maker in a game that’s priced at a coin-flip. I’ll take the “chalk” road favorite in ARKANSAS (-135).

Against the spread

PASS since the Razorbacks’ money line is just 25 cents on the dollar more expensive than Arkansas -2.5 (-110).

Also, Tiger Stadium is a tough environment to play in and I don’t want to fuss with the points with a road favorite in a conference game. It’s “square” enough paying extra for Arkansas in this spot and I’d hate to lose if the Razorbacks only win by one or two points.

Over/Under

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 59.5 (-115) because a vast majority of the market is betting the Over (according to Pregame.com) and my sports betting instinct is to fade lopsided markets. Plus I just kind of have a hunch that Arkansas-LSU is a tight, low-scoring game.

But, my handicap on this contest’s total is fairly shallow so I’ll just stick with Arkansas straight up in this one.

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