I’m well-aware that if there isn’t a “No. 1” next to your name at the end of the season that if you’re a blue blood in college football that the number ultimately doesn’t matter a whole heck of a lot.
With that said, I’m legit curious as to where Notre Dame will rank in the end of season polls as they won their final five contests of the regular season yet saw almost no change, going from 16 to 14 between October 27, right after the Michigan loss and December 8, after conference championship weekend.
So where will Notre Dame fall in the final rankings that will come out after LSU and Clemson play for the national championship next Monday?
In order to figure that out we have to look at the current rankings and see what has changed or who may potentially fall.
Spots 1-3 will remain the same three teams with the title winner ending up first while the runner-up will check in at two and Ohio State will be three after falling in a thriller to Clemson.
Number four will likely go to 12-2 Georgia who won the Sugar Bowl as Oklahoma will fall and I’m fully on-board with that.
How far might that be? Not far enough to really effect Notre Dame but the 12-2 Sooners will likely check in no-better than five but at worst you’re probably looking at number eight.
Along with Oklahoma you will most likely see Oregon, Alabama and Florida at five through eight as you now enter likely Notre Dame territory.
I don’t think the Irish’s 33-9 win over Iowa State was dominating enough to pass up Penn State who got a hard-fought win over Memphis in the Cotton Bowl, but it was still convincing nonetheless.
The nine through eleven range is exactly where I have Notre Dame coming in with the most logical case probably being for them to be 11.
Here’s why:
Penn State was already ranked ahead of Notre Dame and perhaps they didn’t dominate the Cotton Bowl but they were in control for the vast majority against a good, not great Memphis team. In no way, shape or form does Penn State deserve to fall behind the Irish.
The debate to me comes in at who gets set at No. 10: Notre Dame or Minnesota?
Both the Irish and Golden Gophers finished the season 11-2 but to me, Minnesota’s wins are better than Notre Dame’s and that should be taken into consideration. Minnesota has a win over top ten Penn State (according to my poll, anyway) as well as Auburn who will finish in the top 15.
Notre Dame’s best win ends up being over Navy who will finish the year as the only ranked opponent the Irish defeated in 2019. That has to count for something even if Minnesota’s out of Big Ten schedule consisted of South Dakota State, Fresno State and Georgia Southern.
From there I think you find your next gap. Here is how I would rank the rest of my final top 25 and here’s why for each:
12. Baylor – three losses but what was their best win? Playing Oklahoma closely, twice?
13. Utah – What looked like a likely College Football Playoff berth at the start of December ends with an embarrassing loss where the Utes appeared to have no interest in playing a very average Texas team. Perhaps 13 is generous for them.
14. Auburn – Some great wins along the way but four losses are four losses, even if they came against largely SEC teams. Minnesota beating them on New Year’s Day keeps the Tigers from a top-ten finish.
15. Wisconsin – Four losses for the Badgers who gave away the Rose Bowl and who I still can’t understand for the life of me how they lost to eventual 6-7 Illinois.
16. Memphis – fought hard against Penn State in the Cotton Bowl despite going through a head coaching change so falling only one spot (Minnesota passes them) feels justified.
17. Michigan – No shame in losing to Alabama as I keep them exactly where they were entering bowl season.
18. Iowa – Destroying USC knocks the Trojans out of the top-ten and wraps up a season that saw the Hawkeyes finish with ten victories. It’d be a hair higher had they not lost to Michigan head-to-head.
19. Appalachian State – Had they played and beat someone better than North Carolina perhaps I’d have them higher but a great accomplishment nonetheless to finish with just one loss and in the top-twenty nationally.
20. Navy – Since the final regular season poll was released they dominated Army and snuck by Kansas State in the Liberty Bowl and deserve a slight bump.
21. Cincinnati – All the credit in the world due to Luke Fickell who has the Bearcats humming after dominating Boston College. My only question is how long before he’s back in the Big Ten?
22. Boise State – It was a great year until Chris Peterson took out a years worth of frustration on his former team, riding off into the sunset and dominating Boise State. A solid but not great season for the Broncos.
23. Air Force – Controlled the line of scrimmage and the Cheez-It Bowl versus Washington State as the Falcons record their first 11 win campaign since 1998.
24. Texas A&M – They are still on the short list of most disappointing teams in 2019 for me but at least the Aggies ended the season on a high note, defeating old conference-rival Oklahoma State.
25. Florida Atlantic – The Owls finish the year 11-3 after beating up SMU in their bowl game. An impressive showing worthy of praise after Lane Kiffin didn’t coach the bowl game due to accepting the Ole Miss job.
That’s my best guess at what 1-25 will look like in the final AP Poll. Thoughts? Share them in our Fighting Irish Forum!
See my full 1-25 rankings on the next page