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In a 3-round light heavyweight bout on the main card, Anthony Smith and Ryan Spann meet at UFC Fight Night 225 — also known as UFC Singapore — at Singapore Indoor Stadium in Kallang, Singapore, on Saturday. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 225: Smith vs. Spann odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
Records: Smith (36-18-0) | Spann (21-8-0)
The prelims can be viewed on ESPN+ at 5 a.m. ET, while the main card starts at 8 a.m. ET on ESPN+.
Smith takes the walk to the octagon looking to pull out of a nosedive. He has dropped his last 2 fights, a unanimous-decision loss to Johnny Walker last time out in May, and a 2nd-round KO/TKO setback against Magomed Ankalaev at UFC 277 in July 2022.
It’s been a roller coaster ride for Smith since his title shot loss to Jon Jones at UFC 235 in 2019, as he has won 4 bouts and he has lost 4 fights. He has been knocked out twice during the span and has recorded 3 submission victories and a TKO – Doctor’s Stoppage against Jimmy Crute.
As far as Spann is concerned, he might as well be strapped in the roller coaster right next to Smith. He has posted 3 wins and 3 losses across his past 6 outings, including a 1st-round submission loss to Nikita Krylov last time out in mid-March.
Spann is a versatile fighter who has recorded a KO/TKO in the 1st round over Dominick Reyes at UFC 281 and a 1st-round submission victory over Ion Cutelaba on May 14, 2022, while also taking care of “Smilin” Sam Alvey via decision at UFC 249 back on May 9, 2020. He can do it a number of ways, and that’s likely why he is installed as a slight favorite.
Spann has the arm span, pardon the pun. He has a 3-inch reach advantage, which will serve him well in keeping his opponent at a distance, allowing him to pick and choose his spots to get close in. He also has a 3.28-to-2.96 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, an overwhelming 1.64-to-0.48 takedown average advantage and a 1.91-to-0.69 submission average.
Smith is slightly ahead in significant strikes landed per minute advantage, posting a 50.51% mark, while Spann checks in at 45.99%.
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UFC Fight Night 225: Smith vs. Spann odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 5:40 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Smith +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Spann -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over +140 | Under -185)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +375 | No -650)
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UFC Fight Night 255: Smith vs. Spann picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Win or lose, SPANN (-125) doesn’t clown around. His past 6 bouts have not made it out of the 1st round and I think he is able to get this one down by quickly pouncing on Smith.
Smith has been effective in the ground game, so it might not be in Spann’s best interest to get into the wrestling match. However, I think Spann has enough punching power to end this one with a KO/TKO instead.
If you’re a little cautious, you can go METHOD OF VICTORY – 5-WAY: SPANN BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (-110) at near even-money to get both potential results.
I also like METHOD OF VICTORY – 7-WAY: SPANN BY KO/TKO OR DQ (+175) for a chance to nearly double up. Of course, if you go this route, and there is a submission win, you obviously do not cash.
Over/Under (O/U)
No (-650): Will the fight go the distance? is obviously way too expensive, costing you 6 1/2 times your potential return. Spann hasn’t made it out of the 1st round since May 9, 2020, a fight that went the distance.
Smith isn’t terribly keen to get the judges involved either, and he has made it to Round 2 just twice in the past 5 outings.
UNDER 1.5 ROUNDS (-185) is worth playing lightly, but even that’s a little too expensive for my liking.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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