In a light heavyweight bout on the main card, Anthony Smith and Johnny Walker meet Saturday at UFC on ABC 4 at Spectrum Center in Charlotte, N.C. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ABC 4: Smith vs. Walker odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims are on ESPN/ESPN+ at noon ET, with the main card on ABC/ESPN+ at 3 p.m. ET.
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Smith is looking to bounce back after suffering a 2nd-round KO/TKO setback against Magomed Ankalaev last time out at UFC 277 in July. However, he had picked up 3 consecutive 1st-round wins prior to that setback, including an impressive submission win over Ryan Spann in the main event of UFC Fight Night 192 in September 2021.
Smith is 2 inches shorter than Walker and has a 6-inch reach disadvantage. Walker is also 3 years younger and holds a 3.38-to-2.99 significant strikes landed per minute advantage.
Walker has won each of his previous 2 bouts, picking up a KO/TKO win against Paul Craig at UFC 283 in January and a submission victory against Ion Cutelaba at UFC 279 in September. He has had just 2 of his 10 fights go the distance since joining UFC.
UFC on ABC 4: Smith vs. Walker odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:25 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Smith -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Walker -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over +115 | Under -150)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +280 | No -400)
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UFC on ABC 4: Smith vs. Walker picks and predictions
Records: Smith (36-17-0) | Walker (20-7-0)
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
WALKER (-115) is a solid play straight up on the 2-way line despite that he has been a little erratic lately. The Brazilian fighter has won his last 2 fights, but was also knocked out in the 1st round by Jamahal Hill as recently as Feb. 2022.
However, the reason to like Walker is that 6-inch reach advantage. He’ll be able to keep Smith at a distance as he picks and chooses his spots to go in for the big shot. He should be able to avoid letting Smith get next to him.
Walker also has a slight significant strikes landed per minute advantage, while the difference in the ground game is rather negligible.
Over/Under (O/U)
Do yourself a favor and don’t go for a trip to the kitchen when this fight comes on the television — if you blink, this one could be over. Well, Under.
UNDER 1.5 ROUNDS (-150) is the play. Smith has fought into the 2nd round just once in the past 4 fights and Walker has 3 consecutive finishes in the 1st round. Walker has also not fought into Round 2 in 8 of his previous 10 bouts at the UFC level.
Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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