The Los Angeles Angels (6-4) head to Minute Maid Park Monday to start a 3-game series with American League West rival Houston Astros (5-4). First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Angels vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.
L.A. creamed the Texas Rangers 8-3 Sunday in their 4-game set finale for a third consecutive victory after dropping the series opener. But, Angels CF Mike Trout exited Sunday’s game with an injury after being hit by a pitch in the 5th inning. X-rays were negative on his left hand, but he’s likely to sit out due to swelling.
Houston lost the rubber match of a 3-game series in Seattle Sunday, 7-2, and the Astros were outscored by the Mariners 18-7.
Season series: Houston leads 3-1. The Astros have outscored the Angels 20-10.
Angels at Astros: Projected starters
RHP Michael Lorenzen vs. RHP Luis Garcia
Lorenzen (1-0, 1.50 ERA) had a quality start in his victory last Monday versus the Miami Marlins. He went 6 IP with 1 ER, 2 H, 0 BB and 7 K in L.A.’s 6-2 win.
- The Angels converted Lorenzen to a starter when signing him this past offseason after Lorenzen worked out the bullpen for the Cincinnati Reds from 2016-21.
Garcia (0-0, 0.00) earned a no-decision Tuesday in Houston’s 2-1 victory at the Arizona Diamondbacks despite pitching 4 scoreless frames with 2 H, 2 BB and 1 K.
- 2021 vs. Angels: 1-2 with a 4.10 ERA (26 1/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.56 WHIP and 5.8 K/9 over 4 starts.
- vs. Angels on the current roster: 9.66 FIP with a .328 batting average, .449 wOBA, .633 expected slugging percentage, 13.7 K% and 91.5 mph exit velocity in 73 plate appearances.
Angels at Astros odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:30 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Angels +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Astros -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Angels +1.5 (-160) | Astros -1.5 (+130)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
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Angels at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Angels 6, Astros 4
Money line
LEAN to the ANGELS (+125) as L.A.’s bats have been red-hot to start the season, and Garcia has struggled against the Angels.
Furthermore, L.A.’s lineup ranks third in WAR, fourth in wRC+ and sixth in wOBA thus far (per FanGraphs) whereas Garcia’s scary pitching splits versus the Angels are written above.
It’s only a LEAN to the ANGELS (+125) because I prefer L.A.’s first 5-inning RL as my favorite bet.
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Run line/Against the spread
BET the ANGELS +0.5 (-105) FIRST 5 INNINGS RL because of Garcia’s aforementioned struggles versus L.A., and I’m high on Lorenzen as a starter.
Lorenzen signed with the Angels this past offseason because he’s a native Southern Californian, and L.A.’s front office offered him a starting rotation spot. Lorenzen’s pitching peripherals out of the bullpen were stellar, and he could be a middle-of-the-rotation starter for the Angels.
Also, I feel stronger about L.A.’s first 5-inning RL than its full-game ML because relief pitching has been a weakness for the Angels to start 2022.
TAKE the ANGELS +0.5 (-105) FIRST 5 INNINGS RL.
Over/Under
PASS since most of the market is on the Under, which is why the total is ticking down from the 9-run opener.
However, I’m staying away from the Under there might be some recency bias with that because the Under is 3-1 in the first 4 Angels-Astros meetings this year, and I’m higher on both teams’ lineups than their pitching staffs.
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