In a featherweight bout, Thomas Almeida and Jonathan Martinez meet at UFC on ESPN+ 38 Saturday at the UFC’s Fight Island facility in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The prelims kick off at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Almeida (22-3) steps into the octagon looking for a turnaround. He hasn’t fought since Jan. 20, 2018, due to a left eye injury and subsequent surgery, but he is finally cleared. Before his injury he was struggling big time, falling in three of his past four outings, including a second-round KO/TKO to Rob Font last time out. The losses came against Font, Jimmie Rivera and Cody Garbrandt, which isn’t something to be ashamed of, as they’re the who’s who of the division. The more concerning thing about Almeida is his vision and any potential rust.
Martinez (12-3) looks to build upon the momentum of his third-round KO/TKO last time out against Frankie Saenz on Aug. 1, 2020. Each of his past two victories have been knockouts, with only a split-decision loss to Andre Ewell at UFC 247 as the only blemish since Oct. 27, 2018. “Dragon” enters this one with 4.22 significant strikes landed per minute and a 50.34 significant strikes-accuracy percentage. He also has managed a 0.64 takedown average and 37.50 takedown-accuracy percentage since landing at the UFC level.
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Thomas Almeida vs. Jonathan Martinez betting odds
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:57 a.m. ET.
MARTINEZ (+110) is the play here. I just don’t trust a fighter (Almeida) who hasn’t stepped into the octagon in over two and a half years, and is coming off a major injury. Almeida (-134) is a risky play, and it will be interesting to see where his cardio is at this point, too.
As such, this will likely be a quick fight, regardless of winner. Taking NO (-162): “WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE?” is a strong play. For an added bonus, without getting into a specific winner, take the fight to end in ROUND 2 (+390) and ROUND 3 (+650). As I’ve suggested such wagers in the past, yes, you will lose one end. But if you hit one of those round-winners, especially if the fight ends in Round 3, you’ll be well ahead.
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Also see:
- UFC on ESPN+ 38 predictions (MMA Junkie)
- UFC on ESPN+ 38: 5 burning questions (MMA Junkie)
- MMA Junkie – The latest UFC/MMA coverage
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