With six games left in the 2024 Duke football season, one of two things will probably happen over the rest of the year.
First-year Duke football coach [autotag]Manny Diaz[/autotag] won his first five games as the Blue Devils head coach, the first time in three decades that the program started 5-0, and his team now stands just one win from the postseason.
With fourth-quarter comebacks over Northwestern, Connecticut, and the North Carolina Tar Heels, Duke looked like a team with no quit. The three second-half touchdowns against UNC created the second-biggest comeback in Blue Devils history, and as there always is around novel teams with a good story, there was an air of destiny around Diaz’s fit with the program.
However, the first loss of the season to Georgia Tech highlighted a key problem around the current Duke formula. Duke fell behind by 10 points in the first half, their second straight game trailing by double-digits to open conference play, and allowed two fourth-quarter touchdowns to lose 24-14.
Those two late scores, believe it or not, were the first fourth-quarter touchdowns the Duke defense had allowed in Week 6. On one hand, that sounds like a statement about the Blue Devils. Diaz has talked about how his team feels prepared for those final 15 minutes thanks to their conditioning, and that’s an asset to the program.
On the other hand, Duke didn’t allow a fourth-quarter touchdown in a 5-0 start that included three one-score victories. And now the problem arises.
Over the final six games of the season, with talented teams like the Miami Hurricanes and SMU Mustangs left on the schedule, one of two things will likely happen to the Blue Devils: the offense will thrive or the defense will regress.
The Duke pass defense doesn’t just look like the best in the ACC through six games. It might be one of the best in the country. The Blue Devils have allowed 4.9 yards per attempt through the air, third among FBS defenses, with only six passing touchdowns allowed.
The veteran secondary, featuring longtime starters like Chandler Rivers and Jaylen Stinson, compliment a destructive defensive line. Duke’s 18 sacks and 58 tackles for loss rank 16th and second among FBS defenses, a testament to talented pass rushers like Vincent Anthony Jr. (3.5 sacks) and the discipline of linebackers like Alex Howard (47 total tackles and 9.0 TFLs).
It all adds up to a unit allowing 309.3 yards and 17.5 points per game, both the second-fewest among ACC teams.
The Duke offense, however, has been a little more inconsistent. Transfer quarterback [autotag]Maalik Murphy[/autotag] threw for 1,017 yards and 11 touchdowns in his first four games, but he’s thrown five interceptions already and completed just 50.8% of his passes against the Tar Heels and Yellow Jackets.
Running back [autotag]Star Thomas[/autotag] looked like he could buoy the offense after his performance against UNC, scoring two touchdowns and gaining 211 yards from scrimmage, but he managed just 48 yards on 14 carries against Georgia Tech.
That was the third time the Blue Devils failed to reach 100 team rushing yards despite running the ball at least 27 times in five of the six games. Among 17 ACC teams, Duke sits 14th in yards per rush (3.53) and 15th in yards per pass attempt (6.9). The Blue Devils’ 26.3 points per game are tied for the fourth-fewest in the conference.
The dichotomy between those two units creates the issue laid out above. Outside of the Middle Tennessee game, boosted by three forced fumbles in opposing territory, the offense has scored 8.2 points per game before halftime. Even with a great defense, Duke consistently finds itself in holes because of the slow starts.
The Florida State Seminoles, the next team on the schedule, have been the worst offense in the conference this season, so the issue should be fine for another week. But the two following opponents, SMU and Miami, both score more than 40 points per game.
There’s a chance that Duke can keep winning games in this fashion, especially with how FSU, Wake Forest, and NC State look. However, the current system leaves a minuscule margin of error for the defense against Power Four talent, and that will almost assuredly come back to bite the Blue Devils over a 12-game sample size. Unless, of course, the offense finds its first-half footing after the bye.
