Tag: ALDS Game 3

ALDS Game 4: Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox ALDS Game 4 odds and lines, with expert MLB picks and predictions.

The Houston Astros and Chicago White Sox continue their best-of-five AL Division Series Monday at 3:37 p.m. ET at Guaranteed Rate Field. Let’s analyze the lines around the Astros vs. White Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Jose Urquidy is the projected starting pitcher for the Astros. He went 8-3 with a 3.62 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9 in 107 IP over 20 starts in the regular season.

  • Allowed 5 home runs while posting a 4.96 ERA over his last three starts of the regular season.
  • Clocked a 4.24 ERA over his last 34 IP away from home.
  • Benefited from a .237 batting average on balls in play.

LHP Carlos Rodon is the projected starter for the White Sox. In 24 regular-season starts, Rodon went 13-5 with a 2.37 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 12.6 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 132 2/3 IP.

  • Making first appearance in this series. Faced 3 batters in 2020 postseason, allowing 2 ER on 1 H and 2 BB without recording an out.
  • On a stretch that began with seven one-hit IP against the Astros on July 18 (0 BB, 10K) and has posted a 2.51 ERA, 0.95 WHIP over his last 43 IP at home. Also pitched at Houston June 18, allowing 1 ER in 7 IP.
  • Current Houston batters own an aggregate .475 OPS against him.

Astros at White Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:21 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Astros +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | White Sox -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Astros +1.5 (-190) | White Sox -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

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Prediction

White Sox 6, Astros 3

Money line (ML)

Houston took five of seven games from Chicago in the regular season before opening a 2-0 lead in this playoff series. The White Sox bounced back in Game 3 to stave off elimination with a 12-6 win Sunday.

Game 4 presents more value on the home nine. Urquidy is out too far over his skis with a surface ERA of 3.62. He hasn’t been effective of late and is a much more productive pitcher in his home yard. Rodon has been tough on Houston and his peripheral numbers are solid.

Only the Los Angeles Dodgers (58 home wins) and San Francisco Giants (54) won more home games than the Pale Hose (53) in the regular season.

TAKE CHICAGO (-130).

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The White Sox can be quite average against ground-ball pitchers. That’s what Chicago saw in Games 1 and 2 against RHP Lance McCullers and LHP Framber Valdez. The Sox are a much more dangerous offense at home and against fly-ball hurlers. That was the case Sunday. It also applies in this one against Urquidy (32.2% GB rate).

Add in a bit more bullpen fatigue on the Houston side. BACK THE WHITE SOX -1.5 (+155).

Over/Under (O/U)

A PASS is suggested. Looking for a cooldown after 18 runs were scored is reasonable, but there are signals that point the other way, too.

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ALDS Game 3: Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox ALDS Game 3 odds and lines, with expert MLB picks and predictions.

The Houston Astros and Chicago White Sox continue their best-of-five AL Division Series Sunday at 8:07 p.m. ET at Guaranteed Rate Field. Let’s analyze the lines around the Astros vs. White Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Luis Garcia is the projected starting pitcher for the Astros. He went 11-8 with a 3.30 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 9.7 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 across 155 1/3 IP spanning 28 starts and two relief outings.

  • Posted a 2.39 ERA at home and a 4.24 figure on the road.
  • Was effective in a June 18 start against the White Sox: 7 IP, 7 hits, 1 ER, 2 BB, 8 K.

RHP Dylan Cease is the projected starter for the White Sox. He went 13-7 with a 3.91 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 12.3 K/9, and 3.7 BB/9 through 165 2/3 IP over 32 starts in the regular season.

  • Finished the regular season on a roll, albeit against a weak schedule. Allowed just 1 ER over 14 1/3 IP (with 4 BB, 24 K) across starts against the Texas Rangers, Cleveland Indians and Detroit Tigers.
  • Clocked a 3.18 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 85 IP at home.
  • Struggled in two regular-season starts against the Astros: 9 IP, 9 ER.

Astros at White Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:30 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Astros +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | White Sox -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Astros +1.5 (-200) | White Sox -1.5 (+160)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Prediction

White Sox 5, Astros 3

Money line (ML)

Houston took five of seven games from Chicago in the regular season, and the Astros are up 2-0 in this playoff series. Houston was a solid run line play in Games 1 and 2, and the Astros covered both. However, with this pitching matchup and the White Sox at home, there is an opportunity to leverage some gravity in this series.

From July 7-Aug. 7, Garcia posted a 13.3 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9. Since then, Garcia’s stuff has leveled off, and he has logged 7.0 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 figures. His ERA over that second stretch has been suppressed by a low home run/fly ball rate (and Garcia is a fly-ball pitcher) and a high left-on-base rate.

Garcia can be average on the road, and Cease has been excellent at home. Due in part to a .309 batting average on balls in play, Cease has some expected-ERA figures that point to better quality than what shows in his surface ERA. Statcast quality-of-contact metrics corroborate that analysis.

Only the San Francisco Giants (54 home wins) won more home games than the Pale Hose (53) in the regular season.

In this yard on this day, TAKE CHICAGO (-125).

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The White Sox can be quite average against ground-ball pitchers. And that’s what Chicago saw in Games 1 and 2 against RHP Lance McCullers and LHP Framber Valdez. The Pale Hose are a much more dangerous offense at home and against fly-ball hurlers.

BACK THE WHITE SOX -1.5 (+160).

Over/Under (O/U)

Game 3 lays out with some crisscrossing trends and signals. Figure just the slightest of leans on the Under, but a PASS is suggested.

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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