As we roll into the MLB All-Star break, the time is right to check in on awards futures. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s odds to win the 2021 AL Cy Young Award with MLB picks and predictions.
A recent migration of solid top-shelf starters to the National League (RHP Marcus Stroman (New York Mets), RHP Joe Musgrove (San Diego Padres), RHP Charlie Morton (Atlanta Braves), etc.) made for New York Yankees RHP Gerrit Cole being a big preseason favorite for the American League Cy Young Award.
Cole looked to be on his way to paying off that March confidence in logging a 1.37 ERA, 0.68 WHIP through eight starts; however, the Yankees ace has stumbled a couple of times over recent starts. Saturday, he went 129 pitches over 9 IP in a 1-0 win over the Astros; even that performance perhaps ripples forward with fatigue issues.
So, like a horse race with a big favorite that might have some warts, the AL Cy Young derby sets up as a good one for bettors. Below are five good values to keep an eye on.
2021 AL Cy Young Award odds, picks and predictions
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated Monday, July 12, at 6:25 p.m. ET.
Chicago White Sox SP Lance Lynn (+400)
Lynn has been ultra-consistent while holding foes to 2 or fewer earned runs 13 times through 16 starts. He was a top-six Cy Young vote-getter each of the last two seasons, and he’s dominating at home this season with a 1.53 ERA in his first season with the ChiSox.
His season ERA of 1.99 is buoyed by a .243 batting average on balls in play and an 8.7% home run to fly-ball rate; however, he’s pitching on a contending club, and he’s the veteran presence on the mound. In this year of push-back against spin rates and (to a lesser extent) velocity, Lynn fits as a pitcher’s pitcher and a likable candidate on a ballot.
Minnesota Twins SP Jose Berrios (+4000)
Berrios registered sub-4.00 ERAs in his age-23, -24 and -25 seasons before posting a 4.00 ERA over 63 innings last year. With a sustained velocity gain in 2020-21 and an uptick in ground-ball rate this season (43.7%), the Minnesota righty is posting a career-best xFIP of 3.54.
A second-half surge by the Twins would go a long way toward getting Berrios serious consideration if his production keeps up.
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Chicago White Sox SP Lucas Giolito (+5000)
Giolito was a +500-type favorite for this award back in April, but some early-season misfires seemed to derail his candidacy. A top-seven vote-getter the last two years, he logged a 5.68 ERA through his first five starts of the 2021 season.
Since then, he has been a workhorse, going deeper and deeper into games while hoisting an ERA of 3.66 (alongside a 1.14 WHIP). Big-time swing-and-miss stuff (10.8 K/9) and an ability to get more innings than other top starters are factors in his favor.
Oakland Athletics SP Frankie Montas (+8000)
Montas totes a 4.41 ERA into the second half and won’t be on many radar screens; however, the Oakland right-hander has been a bit undone around the margins, and his expected-ERA metrics settle in the 3s.
Innings will be an issue for the 28-year-old who is already at his career-high with 100 innings pitched.
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Toronto Blue Jays SP Robbie Ray (+8000)
The Yankees open the second half with eight of 10 games against the Boston Red Sox. Should the Yanks fall by the wayside, there would be room for the Blue Jays to make a push in the AL East and for Ray to be recognized as a big catalyst.
A career-best in first-pitch strikes led to a career-best 2.2 BB/9 for the veteran lefty. Over his last 48 2/3 IP, Ray has notched a fine 2.40 ERA.
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