Mountain West Tournament: Who Gets A Bye If It Starts Today?

Just a few weeks left

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Who has the best chance to win it all?

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The conference tournament for the Mountain West is a few weeks away and things are getting interesting.

Wyoming was ranked but then lost to New Mexico and the conference seemingly has games where the underdogs are getting a win here or there. Now there is a circle of wins and losses with San Jose State topping New Mexico.

SAN JOSE STATE! The Spartans have defeated New Mexico and closed the Mountain West Circle of Sicko! Congrats! pic.twitter.com/6ifDqX031k

— SickosCommitteeCBB (@SickosCBB) February 20, 2022

As for how the tournament works, if you are unaware, there are byes for the top five teams. As of the third week of February, those teams that are not playing in the opening round are Boise State, Wyoming, San Diego State, Colorado State, and host UNLV.

There are still enough games left for Utah State, Nevada, and Fresno State to get into that top five and get a bye for the conference tournament.

The top four is also close as well with the uneven schedule of games due to COVID-19 pauses and even if it is just one game it can make a difference in being a top-four seed which is very valuable in this tournament.

TeamRankings.com put together their formula and for the second week in a row they have San Diego State as a solid favorite with getting nearly 1 in 4 chances to win the tournament. The Aztecs opponent on Tuesday night vs. Boise State could be a preview of the Mountain West title game.

Wyoming took a drop after that loss to New Mexico and despite being a potential regular season champ are given the sixth-best odds and behind Utah State who has been inconsistent this year but could pull an upset.

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What If The Mountain West Tournament Started Today?

Who gets the byes and who is favored?

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Early look at the bracket.

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The Mountain West basketball tournament is less than one month away beginning on March 9 with the opening round games, and the championship on Saturday late afternoon.

The league this year has been very competitive with a potential four-bid Mountain West in the cards with six teams in the top 60 of the NET rating.

Normally I post this on Monday but with 4 weeks until Selection Sunday Here are the MW Net Rankings.

25. Wyoming
34. Boise St.
35. Colorado St.
52. San Diego St.
57. Fresno St.
58. Utah St.
107. UNLV
132. Nevada
150. New Mexico
238. Air Force
292. San Jose St.

— Andrew Bangerter (@bangle94) February 13, 2022

At the top of the league is a tie between Wyoming and Boise State who each have a single loss and which happened to come against each other.

There is going to be an uneven number of games played and currently, at the top of the conference, Wyoming, Boise State, and Colorado State all have 10 wins in league play.

The top five teams. get a bye so the last team to avoid the opening round game at this point is Fresno State by being a half-game ahead of UNLV, which will be hosting the tournament.

A bye is going to be huge in this tournament to just avoid an extra game and a pesky opponent.

Not getting a bye as of now includes spoiler makers Utah State and UNLV. The Rebels playing on their home court and having Bryce Hamilton who has the ability to go off and score a ton of points is dangerous. Utah State will be a tough out despite their record as their problem has been inconsistent play; the Aggies do have a win over San Diego State and a few close losses to Boise State and Wyoming.

Early Tournament Projections

With the Mountain West being so close with quality teams. TeamRankings.com has its conference tournament projections out and it is a bit surprising to see San Diego State as the favorite to win it all despite being at 7-3. However, their schedule will have fewer games and there was the controversial ending vs. Colorado State.

Speaking of the Rams, they are nearly tied for the best odds with the Aztecs. Five teams have at least a 10% chance to win it all from these projections. This explains even more why getting a bye is huge, and especially so for Utah State is pegged in the opening round game and neck-to-neck with current No. 1 Wyoming.

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Week 12 Mountain West rankings

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Wyoming takes the top spot

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We’re looking at the power rankings post Week 12 of the College Basketball season. 

1. Wyoming – 73 points

Last week, the Cowboys faced a daunting season-defining three-game stretch, facing Boise State, Colorado State, and Fresno State. If they lost all three games, they would’ve seen their at-large resume hopes dissipate right in front of their eyes. Instead, they swept the week, starting with an overtime thriller over Colorado State, thanks to Hunter Maldonado’s 35-point outing. A few evenings later, Ike exploded with 33 points and 14 rebounds, leading to the win over the extremely hot Boise State Broncos. Just to finish the week off right, Maldonado scored 21 in the 61-59 victory in the Save Mart Center. 

Jeff Linder’s squad came in just eight points behind No. 25 Xavier in this week’s AP Poll, making them the 26th ranked team. Barring a loss to Utah State or San Jose State, expect Wyoming to find their name in next week’s AP rankings. 

2. Boise State – 71 points

The Broncos dropped their first game since the calendar flipped to 2022. The loss to Wyoming ended a 14-game winning streak, which put the Broncos firmly in the NCAA Tournament field. Abu Kigab shined with 26 points in the narrow loss, but defending Wyoming’s Ike proved difficult in the game’s final minutes. Boise State had no issues with San Jose State in the following game, winning a 76-60 contest. Emmanuel Akot was absent from the contest, putting Max Rice in the starting lineup, and Marcus Shaver pivoted to lead guard duties. Freshman sensation Tyson Degenhart tallied a career-high 23 points on 6-9 shooting in 34 minutes.

The Broncos host Bryce Hamilton & UNLV on Wednesday, before meeting Colorado State on Super Bowl Sunday, in a rescheduled game from last month. 

3. Colorado State – 65 points

After dropping the overtime thriller in Laramie, the Rams were quickly in the midst of a two-game losing streak. They had to get some revenge on San Diego State to avoid losing three consecutive — the Aztecs blasted CSU by 30 points in the first matchup. 

Colorado State led by 14 points with less than six minutes remaining. It looked like the Rams would coast to victory as time elapsed off the clock to get the train back on the tracks. SDSU sparked an 11-0 run in the final two minutes, taking the lead with less than 10 seconds left, thanks to Lamont Butler’s three-pointer. Directly after the bucket, David Roddy drilled a mid-range jumper, giving CSU the advantage right back, ending up being the game-deciding shot. Roddy scored a team-best 22 points in the contest.

Colorado State faces a tough three-game stretch — starting in Reno on Tuesday, then returning home for a Friday game against Fresno before hitting the road for Boise on Sunday. 

4. San Diego State – 51 points

Matt Bradley spearheaded the Aztecs comeback attempt in Fort Collins, scoring 29 points on 7-19 shooting, but made 9-10 free throws. Aside from Bradley, nobody scored more than eight points. Once again, on Sunday, Bradley decided to do everything scoring-wise, leading the team with 26 points and was the only player in double-figures in the narrow win over Nevada. 

The lack of offense outside of Bradley remains an issue — San Diego State ranks 233rd in KenPom’s offensive efficiency. Sure, the team ranks 1st in defensive efficiency, but you have to be flawless on defense when the offense struggles to that degree. 

SDSU faces Air Force and San Jose State this week in must-win games to keep their NCAA Tournament hopes alive. 

5. Utah State – 49 points

Don’t look now: Utah State has won five consecutive games after starting 1-5 in Mountain West play. Even more encouraging — each of those games got decided by double-digit margins. Justin Bean regained conference player of the year form, scoring 32 points against UNLV.

On Tuesday, the Aggies could strengthen their NCAA Tournament, facing Wyoming in Laramie. That won’t be an easy game, but they enter the game on that winning streak.