Even though the Houston Texans won’t play an AFC South opponent, they can clinch the division before midnight on Week 15.
The pathway to the postseason is simple, but also partially out of Houston’s control.
As NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport pointed out, the Texans can secure one of the final five playoff spots in the AFC in front of the fans at NRG Stadium with a win over the Miami Dolphins.
That’s only one part of the equation. Houston also needs the Denver Broncos to defeat the Indianapolis Colts at Empower Stadium, thus moving the Colts’ record to two games below .500.
Even if the two teams were to finish with 9-8 records, the Texans swept Indianapolis during the regular season, thus giving them a division advantage.
If both teams won, Houston would simply need to defeat Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium to secure a 10-win season. Much like Week 15’s outlook, even if the Colts were to finish 10-7, they’d lose the head-to-head battle.
A Texans’ win also benefits the Pittsburgh Steelers, who would clinch a playoff berth with a victory over the Philadelphia Eagles and losses from Indianapolis and Miami.
Week 15 Playoff Scenarios! pic.twitter.com/BgreAbDQi8
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 10, 2024
The Green Bay Packers can clinch a playoff spot if they beat the Seattle Seahawks, get a loss or tie from the Atlanta Falcons and get a tie between the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers in Week 15.
The Minnesota Vikings can also punch their ticket to the postseason with a win over the Chicago Bears. The Eagles are already in playoffs but would secure the NFC East with a victory over Pittsburgh.
None of that matters to Houston for now. Just win against a red-hot Dolphins roster on the warpath to January football since Tua Tagovailoa’s return and wait for the rest to fall in line.
It’s not like the Texans must win to stay alive. According to the New York Times playoff simulator, Houston has a 96 percent chance of making the postseason and would improve their standing to over 99 percent with a win over the Seahawks.
Kickoff from NRG Stadium is scheduled for noon CT.