Only dweebs insist “it’s too early to bet on the NFL.” If that were true, BetMGM wouldn’t have done us a solid and listed NFL division futures. The division we are tackling today is the AFC South, which has been dominated in recent years by the Houston Texans — to the tune of four division crowns in the last five seasons.
Below, we look at the futures odds to win the AFC South.
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 12:30 p.m. ET.
2020 AFC South odds: Houston Texans (+170)
Is Bill O’Brien underrated? The Houston Texans are back-to-back reigning AFC South champions and have won the division four out of the six seasons he’s been the head coach. Even when O’Brien’s teams underperform they still find ways to win; the Texans finished last season with a 10-6 record but a minus-7 point differential. The offensive line, linebackers and the secondary are the most obvious areas of need for the Texans. Regardless of whether they adequately address these needs, we should expect O’Brien’s Texans to contend for the playoffs.
2020 AFC South odds: Indianapolis Colts (+200)
The good news about this offseason is that it cannot go worse than the last offseason when now-former quarterback Andrew Luck abruptly retired two weeks before the start of the regular season. Backup QB Jacoby Brissett was promoted to the first string and the Colts crested at 5-2 before losing seven of their final nine games to go Under their 7.5 regular-season O/U win total with a 7-9 record.
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Brissett’s future is in question and there’s a growing belief that the Colts will use free agency or the draft to upgrade at quarterback. They’ve been linked to Tom Brady, Philip Rivers and Teddy Bridgewater, but have also been projected to draft Jordan Love, Justin Herbert or even Tua Tagovailoa. But at this moment Brissett is at the helm and a limited supporting cast featuring Pro Bowl offensive guard Quenton Nelson, a depreciating WR T.Y. Hilton, and mediocre (yet somehow Pro Bowl) TE Jack Doyle. If the roster doesn’t dramatically improve this offseason, it could be another long, playoff-less season for the Colts.
2020 AFC South odds: Tennessee Titans (+200)
The Tennessee Titans (9-7) were the last remaining AFC South team in 2019, making it all the way to the AFC title game where they lost to the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs 35-24. Tennessee surged to a playoff appearance when QB Ryan Tannehill took over the starting job. Tannehill had a 7-3 record as a starter and was ranked first in yards per attempt and quarterback rating, and third in completion percentage. Still, the Titans are headed into the 2020 offseason facing questions because Tannehill and fellow Pro Bowl RB Derrick Henry are free agents. Henry was the straw that stirred the Titans drink and his dominance was the key to the Titans’ stunning playoff upsets of the New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens. It’s assumed the Titans will re-sign both Tannehill and Henry, but certainly not guaranteed. There’s even talk that head coach Mike Vrabel could lure free-agent QB Tom Brady down to Tennessee.
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2020 AFC South odds: Jacksonville Jaguars (+1000)
The third full season of the Doug Marrone tenure in Jacksonville was an unmitigated disaster. Pro Bowl cornerback Jalen Ramsey became disgruntled and was traded to the Los Angeles Rams, V.P. of Football Operations Tom Coughlin was fired, and the Jaguars missed the playoffs for the second straight season—finishing with a 6-10 record—after winning the AFC South in 2017. Nick Foles signed a four-year, $88 million contract in the 2019 offseason, got injured in Week 1 against the Kansas City Chiefs, and saw the Jaguars turn to rookie QB Gardner Minshew — who finished the season as the starter even as Foles came back for limited duty. All signs point to Minshew being the starter next season but, the defense that was elite the previous two seasons finished 24th in the NFL last year and could be the focus of the front office this offseason. The fall-off in defensive sturdiness and a typically unimpressive offense make it clear that the Jaguars are the AFC South team with the most work to do this offseason.
2020 AFC South odds: the pick
It’s surprising how good of a price the Houston Texans (+170) are getting. Houston is the only AFC South team that has its franchise quarterback—Deshaun Watson—locked up heading into free agency and the draft. When healthy, Watson is throwing to one of the best receiving corps in the NFL with DeAndre Hopkins, Kenny Stills and Will Fuller. Just like every team, the Houston Texans need to make roster improvements, but as of now, they are for sure the best bet to win the 2020 AFC South title.
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