Tag: advanced stat notebook

Advanced Stats: Cowboys dominate on paper, look to cap December with win over Titans

The Titans enter Week 17 with a losing streak and a ton of players sitting out, making the case advanced stats may be too generous. | From @ProfessorO_NFL

The Dallas Cowboys enter Week 17 with an 11-4 record on the heels of a Christmas Eve win over the Philadelphia Eagles. The Cowboys have won three of their first four games in December and will look for their fourth victory of the month on the road against the Tennessee Titans.

The Titans are 7-8 on the season so far and have had a brutal December, losing all four games they’ve played this month and are on a five-game losing streak. The Titans are opting to rest players in this matchup, as they prepare for a Week 18 showdown with the Jacksonville Jaguars with the division title up for grabs. That includes rookie QB Malik Willis, who will sit in favor of Josh Dobbs.

Each week we open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to analyze how each team ranks in EPA, DVOA, ANY/A and Toxic Differential. These four key metrics have a high correlation to win probability.

Cowboys nearly pull off first clean sweep in Week 14 stat comps vs Texans

Every week we compare Dallas and their opponent across 25 advanced stats. The Cowboys almost swept the competition, falling short just once. | From @ProfessorO_NFL

The “Battle of Texas” and the “Governor’s Cup” are two names for the Cowboys vs Texans state rivalry. While it’s true fans of each team share a level of indifference towards the other, the series itself has been fairly close with the Cowboys leading 3-2 since the Texans joined the NFL in 2002.

As well as things have gone recently for the Cowboys, things have went the polar opposite for the Texans this season. The Cowboys are 9-3 and riding a three-game winning streak with two of those coming against teams in playoff conversation.  The Texans are 1-10-1 and on a seven-game losing streak. Records aside, the Cowboys have one of the most potent offenses in the league and an elite defense while the Texans have one of the worst offenses in the league with a struggling defense that has allowed over 2,000 rushing yards already.

While this may appear to be a lopsided matchup, head coach Mike McCarthy has cautioned his team to not “take the cheese”.

Each week we open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to analyze how each team ranks in EPA, DVOA, ANY/A and Toxic Differential. These four key metrics have a high correlation to win probability

Advanced Stats: DVOA suggests Cowboys defense may be in line for Turducken

A turkey day showdown of 7-3 teams but the analytics say this isn’t an even matchup at all. | From @ProfessorO_NFL

Thanksgiving in Dallas will look a bit different than previous years. The Dallas Cowboys will be wearing their traditional throwback uniforms for the first time in a decade as they take on the New York Giants. New threads are nice but what’s really important is the product on the field and it looks like we may be in line for a great matchup as both teams enter the week with a 7-3 record and in good shape for a playoff push.

The Cowboys are coming off of a dominating 40-3 victory over the Minnesota Vikings, in what many feel was a “statement game” that was won in all three phases of the game.The Giants are coming off of a surprising loss at home to the Detroit Lions. The defense struggled to slow down the Lions offense and their offense turned the ball over several times.

Dak Prescott has won more games over the Giants than any other team in his career and the team has won nine of the last 10.Each week we open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to analyze how each team ranks in EPA, DVOA, ANY/A and Toxic Differential. These four key metrics have a high correlation to win probability

Advanced Stats: Aside from being toxic, Packers path to win over Cowboys is murky

Advanced analytics highlights the possible path to victory for the Packers as the Cowboys dominate in most all other ways. | From @ProfessorO_NFL

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The Dallas Cowboys will travel to Lambeau Field to play the Green Bay Packers in a game that features two teams with opposite trajectories. The 6-2 Cowboys are freshly rested from a bye week as seen from their relatively clean injury report that saw just one player, Anthony Barr, ruled out.  Running back Ezekiel Elliott will test his knee pregame, while safety Malik Hooker and defensive end Sam Williams return to action.

The 3-6 Packers have not been as fortunate, the injury bug has taken its toll on the team and they three more tests before they reach their bye week.  They have 16 players on the injury report, five who were ruled out includingLB Rashan Gary and CB Eric Stokes who will miss the rest of the 2022 season.

Each week we open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to analyze how each team ranks in EPA, DVOA, ANY/A and Toxic Differential. These four key metrics have a high correlation to win probability.

Bears more toxic but Cowboys should have antidote in Week 8 battle

While the Bears are more toxic than the Cowboys, how the teams matchup in the remainder of advanced stat indicators favors Dallas. @ProfessorO_NFL breaks it all down.

The Dallas Cowboys picked up their fifth win of the season against the Detroit Lions last weekend and now will face another NFC North opponent, the Chicago Bears, in Week 8 at home. With franchise quarterback Dak Prescott returning to action from a thumb injury that forced him to miss the previous five weeks, the Cowboys handed the Lions a 24-6 loss. The defense once again came to the rescue wreaking havoc on the Lions offense as they forced five takeaways and accrued five sacks.

The Bears will enter this matchup with a 3-4 record on the season coming off of an impressive win against the New England Patriots in Week 7. After starting the season with two wins in their first three games, the Bears found themselves on a bit of a tailspin, losing three games in a row before righting the ship against New England.  The Bears offense features a formidable running game and an opportunistic defense.

Oh my, already with wins against the Lions and Cincinnati Bengals, the Cowboys have a chance to complete the “Wizard of Oz” gauntlet with a victory against the Bears. Each week we open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to analyze how each team ranks in EPA, DVOA, ANY/A and Toxic Differential. These four key metrics have a high correlation to win probability.