In a middleweight championship bout, Israel Adesanya and Paulo Costa will battle for the strap at UFC 253 Saturday at the UFC’s Fight Island facility in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The prelims kick off at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+, followed by the main card set for 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view.
Adesanya (19-0) puts his unbeaten record on the line, and he also puts his middleweight title belt up for grabs. He will step into the octagon looking like the more impressive fighter, as he stands three inches taller than Costa (13-0), and he has an astounding eight-inch reach advantage. He took the title from Kelvin Gastelum at UFC 236 on April 13, 2019, and he has successfully defended his title twice since. Last time out was a unanimous decision against Yoel Romero at UFC 248. As impressive as Adesanya has been, three of his past four fights have gone the distance, and five of his past seven bouts have gone to the judges’ cards.
Costa is also unbeaten, and the last time we saw him was also a unanimous decision win over Romero back on Aug. 17, 2019 at UFC 241. Before that his first four fights at the UFC level ended in KO/TKO. While his overall record is impressive, and the four knockouts are nice, he hasn’t faced a fighter with anywhere near the pedigree of Adesanya, a.k.a. “The Last Stylebender.”
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Israel Adesanya vs. Paulo Costa betting odds
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:22 a.m. ET.
ADESANYA (-182) is worth a play on the 2-way line, although it’s right at my personal limit for betting money lines. Still, I don’t see any way that the lanky Nigerian fighter falls to “The Eraser.” He has shown no signs of slowing down, although it does worry me that he tends to go the distance so much, relying upon wowing the judges with his technical ability.
As such, I think OVER 3.5 ROUNDS (+115) is a fabulous play, as two of Adesanya’s three title fights have been unanimous decision wins. In addition, it’s worth a small-unit play to take ADESANYA BY DECISION (+300), as you can triple up if it goes the distance. If you’re not feeling an Adesanya win, but like the idea of a DECISION (+165) without selecting a winner, that’s a good wager, too.
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Also see:
- UFC 253 predictions (MMA Junkie)
- Historical significance of Adesanya-Costa (MMA Junkie)
- MMA Junkie – The latest UFC/MMA coverage
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