49ers offense falls off in ESPN analyst’s bold prediction

An ESPN prediction has the 49ers offense falling off some. We don’t see it.

The San Francisco 49ers are returning virtually all of their starters on offense in 2024.

That’s a significant deal considering how dominant they were on that side of the ball last season. They ranked No. 1 in points scored, offensive efficiency, and offensive EPA per play according to ESPN.

Their only change to their starting lineup will be at right guard where rookie third-round pick Dominick Puni figures to step in for the rotation of Spencer Burford and Jon Feliciano.

Despite all that, ESPN analytics guru Seth Walder made an offensive dip his bold prediction for the 49ers’ 2024 season. Via ESPN:

The 49ers’ middling offensive line play will catch up to them and they’ll fall out of the top four offenses in the league (in terms of expected points added per play) as a result. The only lineman they can feel great about is left tackle Trent Williams, and even he carries risk, given that he’s 36 years old and currently holding out. Left guard Aaron Banks, center Jake Brendel, right guard Spencer Burford and right tackle Colton McKivitz all showed weakness in either run or pass block win rate last season.

This is becoming a theme in the pre-season analysis of the 49ers. Their offensive line is an easy weak spot on the roster to point to, and Walder did so with his prediction. He doesn’t mention Puni, but a rookie third-round pick wouldn’t like alter the projection much.

Williams did return to the fold and will get three days of practice in before Week 1. He joins Banks on the left side with Brendel at center. Puni will man right guard alongside McKivitz.

There certainly could be a dip in offensive production if the offensive line falters. However, the 49ers have a good track record under head coach Kyle Shanahan of piecing together offense behind a questionable offensive line. That group had some bad moments last season, but it certainly wasn’t terrible. Puni could also provide an upgrade at RG.

With quarterback Brock Purdy getting a full offseason under his belt without requiring rehab for a major elbow injury and the return of all but one starter on offense, we’ll lean toward San Francisco once again generating a top three NFL offense and proving Walder’s prediction wrong.

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49ers are bottom 10 at key position group according to PFF

The 49ers OL is not on track to be great according to Pro Football Focus, but it has a chance to be better than last year.

The San Francisco 49ers have the NFL’s best roster on paper.

Their group of offensive playmakers is unrivaled. They have a quarterback they believe is a franchise signal caller. They have one of the NFL’s best pass rushers, and the league’s best off-ball linebacker. Their secondary has also improved to the point that it might actually be better than the defensive line they’ve built their defense around.

One group stands out as a weak point for the 49ers, however, and it shows in the Pro Football Focus offensive line rankings.

PFF ranked all 32 offensive lines heading into the 2024 season and the 49ers landed in the bottom 10 at No. 24 overall. Via PFF:

While the 49ers’ offensive line features a future Hall of Famer and arguably the best offensive lineman of the past few years in Trent Williams, those around him have so far failed to impress. The rest of the offensive line consists of either career journeymen, such as center Jake Brendel and right guard Jon Feliciano, or young offensive linemen who the 49ers hope can improve in 2024, such as Aaron Banks and Colton McKivitz.

It should be noted up front that Feliciano is on Injured Reserve and decidedly not the team’s starting right guard this season. Had they included rookie Dominick Puni there instead the ranking actually might have fallen some.

Puni is part of the tipping point for what this group can be for the 49ers. The third-round pick out of Kansas stepped into the starting lineup early in camp and never relinquished his first-team reps. His arrow is pointing up, which is a welcome sight for the 49ers since they struggled to find consistency at RG the last couple years.

Banks will certainly need to improve, and McKivitz will need to be better in his second full season as a starter.

The good news is the 49ers should be fine even if the OL is just a little better in 2024. They made a run to the Super Bowl last year in a season where they had both Banks and Williams out for periods of time. They also had to do their shuffling at RG to get that position right.

San Francisco has managed without an elite OL throughout head coach Kyle Shanahan’s tenure. This year they’ll need to do more of the same.

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