Tag: 3rd down

Commanders’ Dan Quinn hit the nail squarely on the head

Third downs crushed the Commanders again on Sunday.

Nine for thirteen.

It was perhaps the most significant statistic of Sunday’s Commanders game in Tampa.

Yes, the score was 37-20. But even the final touchdown by the Commanders was basically a gimme by the Bucs, sitting back in prevent defense, allowing Jayden Daniels to convert all five of his attempts on the drive, making the score less embarrassing.

Head coach Dan Quinn felt the same regarding the nine-for-13 13 stat. Because at his press conference in Tampa, just minutes after the conclusion of the game, Quinn summed it up this way: “I think third down, if I had to look back on it right now, that was the biggest and certainly the story of the game. So, a lot to work on. Tampa was the better team today.”

Notice this third down that broke the Commanders again.

The Commanders’ defense gave up an absurd 69.2 percent of third downs to the Buccaneers. Put more bluntly, the Buccaneers shredded the Commanders on third downs. 69% of the time, the Buccaneers moved the chains or put the ball in the end zone.

Going back and looking at the third downs, there is not much one can spin positively. Strangely, it was so bad that it could have been even worse. How so? Well, at 11:43 of the opening Bucs’ possession, it was 3rd & 3 at the Commanders 38, and Jalen McMillan was wide open, having completely fooled Mike Sainristil. Fortunately, Baker Mayfield overthrew McMillan. Instead of a touchdown, the Bucs settled for three points.

But even this was only possible because earlier in the possession, yes, on 3rd & 1 at the Bucs 39, the Bucs failed to convert, forcing a punt. However, DE Clelin Ferrell illegally used his hands, extending the drive.

It would serve as an omen of what was to come on third downs for the Commanders defense all day in Tampa. Baker Mayfield had his best day as a pro with a 146.4 passer rating, tops in Week 1.

Dan Quinn was right. Third down was the story for the Commanders’ defense. He didn’t say it, but he did imply it, and he is correct. This team is the 2024 Commanders, not the 2023 Commanders. We can’t continue to blame only Ron Rivera and Jack Del Rio.

The Commanders are terrific on 3rd down through two weeks

Through two weeks, the Commanders have been outstanding on third downs — offensively and defensively.

One of the best metrics to determine a team’s success on offense or defense is how they do on third down. In past years, Washington struggled offensively on third downs. You can chalk most of that up to inconsistency at the quarterback position.

Last season, Washington was on a historically bad pace for third-down defense. Fortunately, the team improved enough throughout the season to avoid historic futility.

How are the Commanders looking through two weeks?

Offensively, Washington, behind new quarterback Carson Wentz, ranks No. 3 in third-down offense. The Commanders are converting 56% of their third downs, an excellent number. They are behind only Buffalo and Philadelphia — this week’s opponent. The Eagles are converting 56.7% of their third downs.

Surprisingly, the Commanders have been good defensively on third down. Washington is ranked No. 4 in third-down defense, with opponents converting only 28% of their third-down opportunities.

A closer look at Washington’s defense, and you can see some good things. As head coach Ron Rivera noted, one big problem for the defense is allowing too many explosive plays. Those explosive plays have led to easy scoring opportunities. Eliminate the explosive plays — something Rivera believes is easily corrected — and you see a different picture of Washington’s defense.

Something to note, Philadelphia’s defense is allowing opponents to convert on 50% of their third downs.

We are going to learn a lot about the Commanders in the next two weeks with games against the Eagles and Cowboys.

Bad teams and 3rd down conversions: Pinpointing the reason for Washington’s recent success

After a tough start to the season, Washington is 3-2 over the past five games, with a strong uptick in 3rd down success-rates.

Through the first six weeks of the 2020 season, it was a pitiful sight in Washington, with the team sitting at 1-5 and having no real semblance of a plan going forward. The offense wasn’t clicking, the defense was giving up chunks of yards in back-breaking fashion, and talks of making a run at the NFC East division title seemingly baseless in reality.

Since then, however, Washington is 3-2, and their numbers have started to pick up. They are averaging more than 27 points per game in this stretch while giving up only 16.4 points per game, which is a marked improvement from early on this season. So why have they been able to find success so quickly?

Blame it on the subpar opponents and the third-down conversion rate.

The last five games for Washington have come against the Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Cincinnati Bengals, and Detroit Lions. Not exactly the class of the NFL. Still, though, to succeed in this league you have to beat the bad teams, and Washington has learned how to do that a bit, gaining their first win streak of the season with a 41-16 beat down over the Cowboys on Thanksgiving.

Another key stat in their success has come on third down for Washington. While they started the year with just a 34% conversion rate on third down, that number has jumped up to nearly 47% with Alex Smith under center. Additionally, the defense has gotten better in that aspect as well, allowing a team to convert on 3rd down just over 30% of the time, while they started the year allowing a 42% conversion rate.

These numbers may not seem like a lot, but it adds up when you consider the extra downs and increased time of possession it brings to the offense. Going forward, Washington will face a much tougher schedule, with games against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Seattle Seahawks coming up. However, it’s clear that this Burgundy & Gold team has improved greatly over the past several weeks, and they have a chance to take a step forward during this final stretch.

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