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The NASCAR Cup Series moves to Sonoma Raceway Sunday for the 2024 Toyota Save Mart 350. Green flag is scheduled to drop shortly after 3:30 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the 2024 Toyota Save Mart 350 odds, and make our expert NASCAR picks and predictions.
2024 Toyota Save Mart 350: What you need to know
- Joe Gibbs Racing driver Martin Truex Jr. posted a victory at Sonoma last season, the 4th of his Cup Series career at the California road course track
- Penske Racing’s Ryan Blaney, who suffered heartbreak at Gateway by running out of gas last week, was fastest in practice Friday at 97.866 mph on the repaved surface at Sonoma
- Richard Childress Racing’s Will Brown, the Australian Supercar star, makes his NASCAR Cup Series debut. He had a practice speed of 97.617 mph Friday
- RCR’s Kyle Busch finished 2nd last season, 2.979 seconds behind Truex Jr.
- RFK Racing’s Chris Buescher was 4th at Sonoma in 2023, and he has a solid 14.1 Average-Finish Position (AFP) in 7 career Cup starts at the road course, leading 8 laps
- Hendrick Motorsports driver Chase Elliott has never won at Sonoma in a Cup car, but he leads all active drivers with a 12.1 AFP in 7 starts while finishing as a runner-up with 5 finishes inside the top 10
- Penske’s Joey Logano has never won at Sonoma, but he is 2nd among active full-time drivers with a 12.9 AFP and 6 top-10 runs in 14 Cup starts
- 23XI Racing’s Tyler Reddick has had a tough time in 3 Cup starts at the Bay Area road course, posting a dismal 29.0 AFP despite a solid 5.7 Average Start spot
- Reddick’s teammate, Bubba Wallace, has also had issues at Sonoma, managing a poor 24.4 AFP in 5 career starts with 1 DNF and 0 laps led
- Road course ringer A.J. Allmendinger, driving the No. 16 Chevy for Kaulig Racing, has surprisingly struggled in his Cup career at Sonoma, posting a dismal 22.1 AFP with 3 top-10 finishes and 1 DNF despite a solid 10.9 Average Start position
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2024 Toyota Save Mart 350 – Expert pick
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:34 a.m. ET.
MARTIN TRUEX JR. (+1400) is a good bet for the repeat at Sonoma.
For whatever reason, the Joe Gibbs Racing driver is the best active driver at this track. He knows the turns better than anybody, and is crisp, doesn’t lift, and he rarely makes a mistake. The only thing that could potentially derail him is a careless driver collecting him when trying to make a wild pass.
MTJ leads all active drivers with a 98.5 Driver Rating in 17 career Cup starts at Sonoma, posting 4 wins, 6 top-5 finishes and 7 top-10 runs, while also leading everybody with 264 laps led. It’s rather surprising he isn’t the chalk, so take advantage.
2024 Toyota Save Mart 350 – Contenders
RYAN BLANEY (+800) should have a chip on his shoulder after running out of gas late, blowing the win at the Enjoy Illinois 300 at World Wide Technology Raceway last weekend. He can take solace in the fact that at least teammate Austin Cindric benefitted, and not another team.
Anyway, Blaney looked to be on a mission in practice Friday, topping the charts in speed. He has a respectable 16.6 AFP in 7 career Cup starts, while posting 4 top-10 finishes, including a best of 3rd.
At this price, Blaney is a value as he is a driver on a mission.
2024 Toyota Save Mart 350 props
Prop odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook
DANIEL SUAREZ (+140) matchbet vs. Michael McDowell
Suarez ended up winning the 2022 Toyota Save Mart 350 for Trackhouse Racing, holding off Buescher and McDowell, a pair of Fords.
McDowell was solid in practice Friday, posting a speed of 97.354 mph, while Suarez tumbled to 27th with a speed of 96.263 mph. But Suarez was a winner here before, and knows how to get the job done. He is a tremendous value at plus-money, regardless.
KYLE BUSCH (+145) matchbet vs. Ty Gibbs
The old dog Busch knows a thing or two about racing at Sonoma, picking up 2 checkered flags with 7 top-5 runs, 9 top-10 finishes and 132 laps led in 18 career Cup starts wit ha solid 14.8 AFP.
Gibbs is a young buck who is still cutting his teeth on the Cup circuit. He was 18th last season in his initial run at Sonoma Raceway. I’ll take tried and true any day of the week, especially at plus-money.
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