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The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Richmond Raceway Sunday for the 2024 Toyota Owners 400. The green flag is scheduled to drop approximately at 7 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the 2024 Toyota Owners 400 odds, and make our expert NASCAR picks and predictions.
2024 Toyota Owners 400: What you need to know
- Hendrick Motorsports driver Kyle Larson posted a best speed of 120.332 mph in qualifying, just edging out teammate Chase Elliott (120.321 mph), to secure the pole for Sunday night’s race
- Trackhouse Racing’s Ross Chastain was the only other driver with a best speed faster than 120 mph (120.059 mph), and he’ll go off 3rd
- Hendrick’s Alex Bowman rounds out Row 2 with a best speed of 119.861 mph in qualifying, giving Chevrolet the top 4 starting spots
- 23XI Racing’s Bubba Wallace is the top non-Chevy, as he’ll go off 5th in his Toyota after a best speed of 119.819 mph in qualifying
- Front Row Motorsports driver Todd Gilliland was the top Ford in qualifying, turning in a best speed of 119.760 mph. He’ll go off from the 6th spot in the grid. Gilliland has a poor 23.0 AFP in 4 career Cup starts at the track despite an Average Start spot of 16.8
- Stewart-Haas Racing driver Josh Berry, who was the runner-up last spring at Richmond in his first-ever Cup race at the track, goes off from the 30th starting spot
- Richard Childress Racing’s Kyle Busch leads all active drivers with 6 checkered flags, 19 top-5 finishes and 36 Cup starts at Richmond, and he has the best Average-Finish Position (AFP) at 7.1 of any driver. He’ll start 15th
- Joe Gibbs Racing driver Martin Truex Jr. starts 7th. He has 3 career wins at the track, while posting 17 top-10 finishes and 1,359 laps led in 35 carer Cup starts with a 15.3 AFP
- JGR’s Denny Hamlin is 2nd only to Kyle Busch, as the driver of the No. 11 machine has 4 career wins in Richmond, with 18 top-5 finishes in 34 Cup starts, while leading 2,226 laps with an 8.5 AFP
- Michael McDowell has struggled over the years at Richmond, posting a dismal 30.1 AFP in 25 career Cup starts with just a single top-10 finish and 10 DNFs
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2024 Toyota Owners 400 – Expert pick
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:30 a.m. ET.
DENNY HAMLIN (+650) has been dominant over the years at Richmond, which is basically the Chesterfield, Virginia native’s home track.
While Chevrolet dominated in qualifying, Hamlin cannot be overlooked. He has 4 victories with 18 top-5 finishes and a circuit-best 2,226 laps led in 34 career Cup starts at the track, while turning in an impressive 8.5 AFP. He has also qualified well over the years, posting a 9.2 AFP, which is 2nd-best to Hendrick’s Kyle Larson, the pole sitter.
Pit stall selection is important at Richmond, but it isn’t a deal breaker. He starts from the 11th position, so his pit stall selection is just so-so. However, all but 4 of the past 18 Richmond winners have started 13th or better.
2024 Toyota Owners 400 – Contender
KYLE BUSCH (+2500) is worth a roll of the dice at this price. He leads all drivers with 6 checkered flags in 36 career Cup starts at the track, while posting a circuit-best 7.1 AFP (min. 2 starts), while leading the pack for 1,530 laps.
Busch has actually never finished lower than 24th in his 36 starts in Richmond, too, which is rather impressive considering how hot the brakes can get on the short track, as well as tempers. He has never had a DNF in Virginia’s capital city.
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