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March Madness: Friday’s best NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 underdog pick and prediction

Beat the Sportsbook: Here is Friday’s best Sweet 16 underdog bet for the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

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We are now into Week 2 of the NCAA Tournament. While some favorites were knocked out, it has mostly been a bracket playing to chalk through the first 2 rounds. We’ll likely still get a surprise or two as we make our way toward the Final Four. Below, we break down FanDuel Sportsbook’s NCAA Tournament odds and lines and list Friday’s best Sweet 16 underdog bet to cash in on among SportbookWire’s expert college basketball picks and predictions.

Prior to Thursday’s action, a quarter of the Sweet 16 come from seeds 5-or-higher. Two of the 16 (Clemson, NC State) are from outside the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll. Four are — or were — tabbed as underdogs of 5½ points or more.

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Friday’s NCAA Tournament underdog pick

Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 11:51 p.m. ET.

Gonzaga +5.5 (-110) vs. Purdue – 7:39 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV)

This game is Friday’s 1st Midwest Region semifinal at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, and it features the No. 1 seed Boilermakers against the No. 5 Bulldogs.

Prior to the Tournament much was made of Purdue’s past upset losses in the Big Dance — each when favored by a double-digit margin — each of the last 2 years. But Purdue has ridden the sensational play of C Zach Edey to easy wins this Tournament over No. 16 Grambling and No. 8 Utah State. The Boilermaker behemoth averaged 26.5 points and 17.5 rebounds on 67.9% shooting in the 2 wins.

Gonzaga has had its offense in really high gear since about mid-January. The Bulldogs are 16-2 and averaging 85.7 points per game since Jan. 18. During that stretch, they have shot 54% from the field and 40.5% from 3-point range. It’s the Zags’ ability to knock down contested inside buckets and not have to rely on 3’s that looms large in this matchup against this Purdue five that is not as dominant in defending the interior as one might assume.

Overall, Purdue is the better defensive team. KenPom ranks the Boilermakers’ defensive efficiency at No. 15 in the nation, while the Zags are 44th. But the late-season trend line has Gonzaga closing the gap and of late playing quite well at that end of the floor.

Gonzaga has big bodies inside and depth there as well. Look for the Bulldogs to be a fair play on the money line (currently at +195, would take GU at +205 or better), but there figures to be a high enough probability of a 1-possession game to give bettors solid leverage on GONZAGA +5.5 (-110).

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March Madness: Best NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 underdog picks and predictions

Beat the Sportsbook: Here are 3 best underdog picks and predictions for the Sweet 16 in the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

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We’re down to the Sweet 16 in the 2024 NCAA Tournament, and after the games Thursday and Friday, we’ll be left with just 8 teams standing in the battle the national championship. We’ll take a look at who the best underdogs are to target for the Sweet 16 slate.

Below, we break down BetMGM Sportsbook’s NCAA Tournament odds and lines and list the best Sweet 16 underdog bets to cash in on among SportbookWire’s expert college basketball picks and predictions.

The schedule for Friday features the best underdogs. In fact, don’t be surprised if that’s where we have our lower seeds advancing to the Elite 8. All 4 of the No. 1 seeds are still alive, but I am expecting that will change before the weekend.

Rankings: USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll

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NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 underdog picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 6:12 a.m. ET. All game times ET; ML = moneyline.

NC STATE +6.5 (-110) vs. Marquette – Friday, 7:09 p.m. (CBS)

The Wolfpack are the lowest remaining seed in the NCAA Tournament. In fact, the red-hot Wolfpack is the only double-digit seed left. And it wouldn’t be surprising to see 11th-seeded NC State advance to the Elite Eight, as it is playing with a lot of confidence.

The Wolfpack won 5 games in 5 days to claim the ACC Tournament championship, and NC State has carried over the momentum into the Big Dance. NC State won 80-67 as a 5-point underdog against No. 6 seed Texas Tech in the 1st round, and it topped No. 14 seed Oakland 79-73 in overtime in an epic battle between double-digit seeds vying for Cinderella’s slipper.

The Golden Eagles of Marquette roughed up Western Kentucky 87-69 in the 1st round and ousted Colorado 81-77 in the 2nd round, while the Buffaloes cashed as a 4.5-point underdog at most shops.

This is the 1st meeting since Dec. 5, 2009, when NC State won 77-73 as a 10-point underdog in Milwaukee. That isn’t terribly important, as Wolfpack start D.J. Burns was 9 years old at the time. The 300-pound big man put up 24 points and 11 rebounds against Oakland, and he has averaged 16.6 PPG during the team’s 7-game winning streak.

Marquette is just 1-2 against the spread (ATS) in the past 3 games, and 4-4 ATS in the past 8 outings. The Golden Eagles could advance, similar to the Colorado game, but the Wolfpack should grab the cover as the underdog. They’re on fire.

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GONZAGA +5.5 (-110) vs. Purdue – Friday, 7:39 p.m. (TBS/truTV)

The Bulldogs were once considered a bubble team. There was a time Gonzaga’s streak of making the NCAA Tournament appeared in jeopardy, but the Bulldogs racked up 13 wins in 14 games to close the regular season, and it is now 3-1 SU/ATS in 4 games in the postseason. And just like that, Gonzaga went from bubble team, to the verge of the Elite 8.

The Boilermakers breezed past No. 16 seed Grambling 78-50 and blasted No. 9 Utah State 106-67. That’s a 33.5 PPG margin of victory in 2 NCAA Tournament games. Purdue has yet to really be tested, but you can expect all of that to change against the red-hot Bulldogs.

Purdue allowed teams to average 70.2 PPG, while allowing the opposition to hit 32.0% from behind the 3-point line. Gonzaga can more than hold its own on offense, going for 85.6 PPG, while hitting 51.9% from the field. If the Bulldogs can get their 3-pointers going, the Boilermakers could be in some trouble. Either way, this is a rather large spread, and Gonzaga is a live ‘dog.

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DUKE +3.5 (+100) vs. Houston – Friday, 9:39 p.m. ET (CBS)

The Blue Devils lost 3 times in a 6-game stretch from Feb. 24-March 14, bowing out in their 1st game of the ACC Tournament to the aforementioned Wolfpack.

The Cougars picked up a 100-95 win in overtime against Texas A&M in the 2nd round. Houston blew a double-digit lead against A&M in the final 2 minutes, and the Aggies nearly shoved the Cougars out the door. Houston committed 28 fouls, sending the Aggies to the line 45 times, with Texas A&M hitting just 29 times, or 64%. If Houston is that loose in the foul department against Duke, it might end a different way.

The key here will be Duke’s offense, which has averaged 80.2 PPG with 48.4% from the field, and 38.1% from behind the 3-point line, against Houston’s defense. The Cougars allow just 56.9 PPG, with a 38.3% defensive field-goal percentage, and 30.2% from behind the 3-point line.

The way UH looked against A&M, it appears ripe for the picking by a red-hot Duke offense, which is coming off a 93-55 win over James Madison, a 32-win team. Duke hit 50% (14 of 28) from behind the 3-point line, while turning it over just 6 times against JMU. If it plays like that against Houston, a No. 1 seed could be going home.

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Sunday’s best NCAA Tournament second-round upset and underdog picks and predictions

Beat the Sportsbook: Here are Sunday’s 2 best underdog bets for the second round of the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

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The 1st-round games gave us more information on the teams that survived; some of that new data has likely been under- or overemphasized. Below, we break down BetMGM Sportsbook’s NCAA Tournament odds and lines and list Sunday’s best 2nd-round upset bets to cash in on among SportbookWire’s expert college basketball picks and predictions.

It has been an eventful tournament to say the least with 8 double-digit seeds advancing to the 2nd round. Despite all the upsets, 14 of the top 16 seeds made it out of the 1st round. Nine of the top 10 teams in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll remain in the tournament. So, we’ve got a great mix of bluebloods and surprises remaining, let’s see if there are anymore upset scenarios coming on Sunday.

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Sunday’s NCAA Tournament underdog picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:12 a.m. ET. All game times ET; ML = moneyline.

Utah State +11.5 (-110) vs. Purdue – 2:40 p.m. (CBS)

ML: Utah State (+450)

Some might feel like the Mountain West Conference was disrespected by the selection committee with placements and seeding. Entering Sunday, the MWC is 3-4 in the tourney. The Big 12 was arguably the toughest conference in the nation and the 8th-seeded Aggies (26-6) made short work of the No. 9 seed TCU Horn Frogs 88-72 Friday. G Ian Martinez filled the stat sheet with 21 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, a steal and a block in the win.

The top-seeded Boilermakers (30-4) will be a tall (literally) test Sunday, but Utah State is up to the challenge. The Aggies can spread the floor and drive the lane to possibly get Purdue 7-foot C Zach Edey into foul trouble. The Aggies’ balanced offense and tough defense are good enough to knock off Purdue and shock the world.

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JAMES MADISON +7.5 (+110) vs. Duke – 5:15 p.m. (CBS)

ML: James Madison (+250)

The Dukes (32-3) are one of only 6 teams in the country with 30 wins. Their 32nd victory came in the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament against the Wisconsin Badgers (72-61). The 12th-seeded Dukes were led by Sun Belt Player of the Year Terrence Edwards Jr., who finished with 14 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals and 1 block. James Madison won 17 of its last 18 games, which includes a current 14-game win streak.

Duke (25-8) lost its last game of the regular season to North Carolina and fell in its first game of the ACC Tournament — in the quarterfinals — to eventual tourney champ NC State. Despite the disappointing end to the season, the Blue Devils earned a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tourney. There, they beat 13th-seeded Vermont 64-67, improving to 7-4 away from Cameron Indoor.

The last time a 12-seed reached the Sweet 16 was 2021 when Oregon State upset 5th-seeded Tennessee and 4th-seed Oklahoma before falling to No. 2 seed Houston in the Elite 8.

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Saturday’s best NCAA Tournament second-round upset and underdog picks and predictions

Beat the Sportsbook: Here are Saturday’s 2 best underdog bets for the second round of the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

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The 1st-round games gave us another data point on the teams that survived; some of that new information has likely been under- or overemphasized. Below, we break down BetMGM Sportsbook’s NCAA Tournament odds and lines and list Saturday’s best 2nd-round upset bets to cash in on among SportbookWire’s expert college basketball picks and predictions.

The Tournament crisscrosses blueblood programs and teams that have been for months ranked in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll with small-conference champs and down-ballot fives perhaps trending the right way in March. Let’s lay out a couple plausible upset scenarios currently underplayed by the betting lines.

Can you survive? While the men’s contest is closed, there’s still time to enter the USA TODAY Sports’ Women’s Basketball Tournament Survivor Pool, which also has a $2,500 prize! Free to enter, 21+. Terms apply, void where prohibited by law. See Official Rules. Play now!

Saturday’s NCAA Tournament underdog picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:22 a.m. ET. All game times ET; ML = moneyline.

MICHIGAN STATE +4.5 (-120) vs. North Carolina – 5:30 p.m. (CBS)

Michigan State (20-14) is the No. 9 seed in the West Region; North Carolina (28-7) is the No. 1. So, why do the books lay this one out so close? The line was 3.5 most of Friday and moved to 4.5 early Saturday

The Spartans advanced through the 1st round on a 69-51 triumph — as 1.5-point favorites — over Mississippi State Thursday. Michigan State went 10-for-23 (43.5%) from distance and had 3 players score in double figures. The win against the number marked Michigan’s State’s 3rd cover a row.

The Tar Heels are ranked 5th in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll, and they backed that up accordingly with a 90-62 rout of Wagner Thursday. UNC covered the spread as a 25.5-point favorite, is 9-1 straight up (SU) over its last 10 games and has scored 90-plus in 3 of those contests.

But this is a clash of pace — with fast UNC and slow MSU — and the Spartans have gone 8-4 against the spread (ATS) when facing teams averaging 77 or more points per game. Against the 3 fastest teams in the Big Ten (Illinois, Iowa, Penn State) Michigan State went 3-2 SU and 3-1-1 ATS.

MSU is back in the same barn that saw them shoot well from distance Thursday, and UNC has trended the wrong way in perimeter defense of late.

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TEXAS +6.5 (-110) vs. Tennessee – 8 p.m. (CBS)

The Longhorns (21-12) and Volunteers (25-8) will tussle in a Midwest Region 2nd-round game in Charlotte, and there is a decent amount of fade ammo to spread around to both sides here. Both had early exits in their respective conference tournaments and have analytic multi-game trend lines headed the wrong direction.

No. 7-seed Texas did cover a 3-point spread in a low-scoring 56-44, first-round contest against Colorado State Thursday. No. 2-seed Tennessee — the 6th-ranked team in the nation — routed Saint Peter’s 83-49 in its 1st-rounder. UT snapped a 2-game ATS losing streak, covering a 22-point spread against the Peacocks.

The Vols have 3 neutral-floor losses this season, and Tennessee’s defense has slipped a notch or 2 late of late. The Longhorns did not have a good offensive game Thursday, but they had looked improved at that end in other late-season games.

Expect a closer game than what the spread lays out.

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March Madness: Friday’s best first-round underdog picks and predictions

Beat the Sportsbook: Here’s Friday’s 3 best underdog bets for the first round of the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

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Being a proud alum of George Mason University, I know a thing or two about a Cinderella story. “By George, the dream is alive” are words that echo through my mind every year during this tournament.

Did you forget about 2022 when 15-seed Saint Peter’s went on an amazing run to the Elite 8. They took down 2-seed Kentucky, 7-seed Murray State and 3-seed Purdue before finally falling to the 8th-seeded North Carolina Tar Heels.

There will be upsets during this tournament, but when will they happen? That’s the question on everyone’s mind and what I aim to uncover here.

Below, we break down BetMGM Sportsbook’s (OR FanDuel Sportsbook’s) NCAA Tournament odds and lines and list Friday’s best 1st-round upset bets to cash in on among SportbookWire’s expert college basketball picks and predictions.

Rankings: USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll

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NCAA Tournament best Friday first-round underdog picks

Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 4:03 p.m. ET. All game times ET; ML = moneyline.

JAMES MADISON (+176) vs. Wisconsin – 9:40 p.m.

The Dukes are one of only 4 teams in the country to win 30 games this season. Their 31st victory came in the Sun Belt Tournament title game, 91-71 over Arkansas State. They are led by Sun Belt player of the year Terrence Edwards Jr., who averaged 17.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game. James Madison won 16 of their last 17 games, which includes a current 13 game win streak.

Wisconsin limped to the finish of the regular season, losing 3 of their last 4 games before making a run to the Big Ten Tournament title game. The Badgers were 3-9 away from Madison this season.

In the past 40 years, there have been 53 No. 12 over No. 5 seed upsets. This is crazy to think about, we’ve had as many years without a 12-over-5 upset as we’ve had 3 12-over-5 upsets in the tournament.

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UAB (+240) vs. San Diego State – 1:45 p.m.

The Blazers won their final 5 games including 3 in the American Athletic Conference Tournament to earn their ticket to the Big Dance. UAB beat Wichita State, South Florida and then Temple in the title game 85-69. They are led by 1st-team All AAC player Yaxel Lendeborg, who averaged 13.9 points, 10.7 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 2.1 blocks per game. UAB is one of the nation’s best at drawing fouls and making free throws. They were 2-1 against Top 25 teams this season.

San Diego State was inconsistent down the stretch, going 4-4 over their final 8 games of the regular season. This team is known for playing tough defensively which could get them into foul trouble in this matchup. They are one of the best teams in the country at guarding the 3, but UAB is not known for their outside shooting. The Aztecs offense can be inconsistent which can be a problem in this tournament.

I already gave you all the stats on why we love a 12-over-5 seed in this tournament.

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UTAH STATE (+146) vs. TCU – 9:55 p.m.

Utah State had won 7 straight games before falling in the semifinals of the Mountain West Tournament 86-70 to San Diego State. First-team All Mountain West player Great Osobor averaged 18 points, 9.2 rebounds, 2.9 assists and shot nearly 60% from the field. He should have his way on the interior against a TCU defense which struggles in the paint. The Aggies were 2-0 against teams in the Top 25 this season.

The Horned Frogs lost 3 of their last 4 games of the regular season before falling in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament 60-45 to Houston.

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March Madness: Best NCAA Tournament first-round upset picks and predictions

Beat the Sportsbook: Here’s 4 best underdog picks and predictions for the first round of the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

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The best part about the NCAA Tournament is upsets, unless, of course, you’re betting the favorites. We’ll take a look at several underdogs who are a good bet to play straight up.

Below, we break down BetMGM Sportsbook’s NCAA Tournament odds and lines and list the best 1st-round upset bets to cash in on among SportbookWire’s expert college basketball picks and predictions.

It’s always interesting when a lower seed is favored. That’s not what we mean by upsets. We’ll pick several teams who are underdogs by more than a few points, who are good plays to cover a big number or just win straight up.

Rankings: USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll

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NCAA Tournament first-round upset picks

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 9:41 p.m. ET. All game times ET; ML = moneyline.

NC STATE ML (+190) vs. Texas Tech – Thursday, 9:40 p.m.

The Wolfpack are the only team to win 5 games in 5 days to claim the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament championship. It’s an impressive feat, but the Wolfpack isn’t likely done.

NC State enters the NCAA Tournament with a lot of confidence after that amazing run, and it is actually the longest winning streak for the Wolfpack this season. And it’s the 1st time NC State has won more than 2 games in a row against Power 6 teams.

Texas Tech has sunk like a stone since the end of January. The Red Raiders lost at TCU on Jan. 30, and they’re actually 6-7 straight up (SU) in the past 13 games. While only 1 of those losses came against a non-NCAA Tournament team, it’s a rather frequent occurrence.

The Red Raiders are just 6-9 in Quad 1 games, while the Wolfpack was just 3-8 in Q1 contests.

If you’re a little more on the conservative side, NC STATE +5.5 (-115) still isn’t a bad play, if you can’t go all the way on the moneyline.

SAINT PETER’S +21.5 (-110) vs. Tennessee – Thursday, 9:20 p.m.

The Peacocks made a miraculous run to the Elite Eight in the 2022 NCAA Tournament. That team, led by the mustachioed Doug Edert, coach Shaheen Holloway, etc. broke up prior to the 2023 season. Edert transferred to Bryant, Holloway took the Seton Hall job, taking KC Ndefo with him, and Daryl Banks III went to St. Bonaventure.

In other words, those casual fans who see Saint Peter’s, they should know this is a completely different group.

The Volunteers are a No. 2 seed, and they’re fully expected to advance. However, this is an awfully big number for a team coming off 2 consecutive losses. The Vols lost a marquee battle to Kentucky in the regular-season finale on March 9 at Thompson-Boling Arena in Knoxville, 85-81 as an 8.5-point favorite, and then it was throttled 73-56 by Mississippi State in its 1st game in the SEC Tournament.

Tennessee has sharp-shooter Dalton Knecht, who was just 4-of-17 from the field for 14 points in the loss to Hail State. He’ll be looking to dent a Peacocks defense which ranked just 161st in the country, according to covers.com, in 3-pointer defense.

Saint Peter’s allowed teams to shoot 33.3% from behind the arc, and the Peacocks really had a difficult time scoring, going for just 65.9 PPG, one of the lowest totals in the country, while hitting just 39.7% from the field. Still, this is an awfully big number.

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WESTERN KENTUCKY +14.5 (-110) vs. Marquette – Friday, 2 p.m.

The Hilltoppers caught fire in the Conference USA Tournament, roughing up New Mexico State by 20, and belting Middle Tennessee by 31, before easing by UTEP 78-71 in the championship game. Western Kentucky covered all 3 games in the C-USA tourney, it has covered 4 in a row, and the ‘Toppers are 9-3 ATS across the past 12 outings.

The Golden Eagles are a No. 2 seed, but they’re a team which is playing .500 ball across the past 6 games, going 3-3 SU and ATS. Of course, the losses are against Creighton, a No. 3 seed in this tournament, and twice to top overall seed UConn.

The big concern with Marquette is the health of F Oso Ighodaro, who carries a questionable tag due to a knee injury, as well as G Tyler Kolek. The latter suffered an oblique injury Feb. 28 against Providence, and he has been sidelined for the past 6 games. He is listed as probable, so he is expected to face Western Kentucky, but will there be some rust? It’s likely.

As far as Ighodaro is concerned, he banged up his left knee, and missed the final 7 games of the Big East title game loss. And G Stevie Mitchell is also nursing a tender left shoulder injury, so Marquette enters this game banged up. That’s good news for Western Kentucky, and its backers.

JAMES MADISON +5.5 (-110) vs. Wisconsin – Friday, 9:40 p.m.

The Dukes got their season off to a great start with an upset over another Big Ten team, Michigan State. James Madison won 79-76 in overtime in East Lansing on Nov. 6, and it was the first of 28 victories against just 3 losses.

Wisconsin tasted defeat 13 times, and it was really in danger of missing this NCAA Tournament all together before stringing together 3 straight wins in the Big Ten Tournament, including a victory over No. 1 seed Purdue, to get its resume in order. The Badgers went all the way to the title game, falling to Illinois 93-87 on Sunday in a thriller.

This is a tough draw for Wisconsin, though. JMU averages 84.6 PPG, and it shoots at a blistering 47.6% from the field. If there is an Achilles’ heel, it’s free-throw shooting, as the Dukes are a dismal 71.1% from the stripe, leaving some points on the floor. And defensively, James Madison allows teams to hit just 28.8% from behind the arc, and that was 5th in the nation defensively.

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2024 March Madness: Final Four long shots worthy of NCAA Tournament futures bet

Beat the Sportsbook: Here are the best 4 long-shot predictions and picks to make the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament.

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If its the Big Dance, and if we’re looking for a fairytale-comes-true return on investment then its a Cinderella we want.

Below, we look at 4 teams with decent value and their NCAA Tournament Final Four futures odds from BetMGM Sportsbook’s (OR FanDuel Sportsbook’s) and make our expert college basketball picks and predictions.

For this analysis, we’ll stay away from the top 20% of teams listed in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll and the top 25% seeds (top 4 each region) in the tournament brackets. We’ll look for teams whose chances of reaching the Final Four may not be a slam dunk, but they will have relative value compared to the risk. We’ll track down 4 teams at diverse price points, but value is value.

Final Four long-shot predictions

Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 7:37 p.m. ET.

Wisconsin Badgers (+1400)

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Wisconsin (22-13) — the 5-seed in the South Region — lost to Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament championship game, but the Badgers led that contest by 9 points inside the 15-minute mark. UW was undone by Illinois going 26 of 30 at the free-throw line.

Wisconsin beat No. 3-ranked Purdue in a Saturday Big Ten semifinal, and the Badgers had played the Boilermakers tough in an earlier loss. Top South Region seeds Houston (No. 1) and Marquette (No. 2) may end up with some injury or injury-return continuity issues, and No. 3 Kentucky needs its potent offense to click to avoid upsets. So, the Badgers have a path.

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San Diego State Aztecs (+2000)

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The Aztecs (24-10) — the No. 5 in the East — are just 6-4 over their last 10 games, but they have the defense (39% field-goal accuracy allowed over those 10 games) and court skills to make for profit leverage at this price point. SDSU’s Jaedon LeDee is a power forward with possible late 1st-round NBA talent, and he could be a difference maker in a lot of key minutes — and games — as the East Region rolls toward crowning its Final Four entrant.

Alongside LeDee, a 6-foot-9, 240-poinder averaging 21.1 points and 8.4 rebounds, San Diego State sports a veteran lineup. The Aztecs get their 1st 2 potential games in their own time zone (games in Spokane).

The futures market had shorter overall futures odds on SDSU a couple weeks ago, and they fit as a decent value when trying to find a play from back in the pack.

McNeese State Cowboys (+8000)

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The Cowboys (30-3) are tabbed as the No. 12 seed in the Midwest. Their path lays out with decent matchups, and they are a dangerous 3-point shooting team (39.4%) playing at a slower-than-average pace. That is often the formula for Cinderella runs in March.

McNeese State may have some trouble forcing enough less-than-optimum mid-range looks, but if it can catch an opponent or 2 having off-kilter shooting games it has a legitimate shot at making a run. The Cowboys create a lot of near-proximity and quality perimeter looks when they’re on offense.

Saint Mary’s Gaels (+1400)

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West No. 5-seed Saint Mary’s (26-7) has filed just 1 loss in 2024. The West Coast Conference champs are 18-1 — knocking down triples at a 39.9% clip along the way — over their last 19 games.

Ranked as the KenPom No. 20, they too can slow down a game and drain 3s. The Gaels also excel on defense (KenPom 3rd in defensive efficiency). SMC’s pace could be problematic for speed demons like Alabama or North Carolina, which could well be 2nd- and 3rd-round matchups.

Saint Mary’s has won tourney games each of the last 2 years and may be poised to takes things a step or 2 farther.

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