Sometimes, very late at night, I have to battle bad ideas, songs that I cannot get out of my head, potential pranks to do to my wife, and fantasy football questions before I can successfully reach Slumber Land. Last night, wife pranks and bad ideas were really the same thing, so that left me with this burning question – Should you drain all of the top receivers from every NFL team before drafting a second-best receiver from an NFL team?
What about the No. 3 guy from a team? Does he offer fantasy value like we think (hope) while drafting Ladd McConkey almost certainly too early?
Let’s look at the actual stats from the last three seasons. These consider who were the first, second, and third-best fantasy scorers from that year. Obviously, injuries will have an impact on where wideouts eventually rank, but it ends up that there actually is consistency in what happens.
WR1 for each NFL team
As you would expect, the WR1 from NFL teams dominate the top-ranked fantasy wideouts. Considering that most leagues would start three wide receivers, there are five or six wideouts that may be the best from that team, but they ended outside the Top-36 fantasy wideouts. The Giants, Broncos, and Cardinals haven’t been a major fantasy contributors from their wide receiver corps over the last few years.
There is consistency for most of these top receivers. The No. 10 fantasy wideout scores about the same every year – the names just change. The same phenomena exists at all levels other than the extreme best and worst. But safe to say that if you draft a No. 1 receiver from an NFL team, he should end up in the Top-24 or so outside of those lowest-tier teams that were mostly expected.
WR2 for each NFL team
Now the more interesting results begin.
There are usually only eight wideouts who are the team No. 2, and yet still rank in the Top-36 for fantasy points. 2022 was oddly solid for No. 2 wideouts with five in the Top-20. Normally, it is only two or three that end that productive and they are pretty consistent from year to year. Chris Godwin, DeVonta Smith, Jalen Waddle, and then someone from the Vikings or Seahawks are usual residents at the top of the No. 2 wideout list.
So while the No. 1 wideout from an NFL team take up around 27 or so of the Top-36 fantasy ranks, the No. 2 wideouts only contribute around five players worthy of being a fantasy starter over a season.
WR3 for each NFL team
Think about the above table when you are scooping up wide receivers in the final rounds of your draft. The No. 3 wideout on any NFL team has almost no chance of being a fantasy starter. This isn’t to say that depth charts don’t change and players don’t see more (or less) work as they try to climb said ladder. Injuries also have a major impact on depth charts and resulting end-of-the-season rankings.
But interesting too is the consistency. At each level, generally the same fantasy points are scored and only the names change.
If you never drafted a No. 3 wideout from an NFL team, you’d be okay. Granted, you’re trying to find a No. 3 guy that may slide up to being the No. 2 guy, but the fantasy value outside of those top two from an NFL team is almost nothing.