The PGA Tour resumes play this week after time off for holidays, and it begins the 2023 calendar year with the Sentry Tournament of Champions in Maui, Hawaii. For the 25th time, this tournament will be played on the Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort.
Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.
With Rory McIlroy opting not to play this week, Jon Rahm is the highest-ranked player in the field, according to the Golfweek/Sagarin rankings. He’s No. 2 on the list, with Patrick Cantlay, Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele rounding out the top 5. Justin Thomas is also in the field, and Will Zalatoris is returning from injury to play for the 1st time this season.
The Plantation Course will play as a par 73 at 7,596 yards, a longer course but 1 with scoring opportunities on the par 5s. If the conditions permit and the wind stays down, the scores could go really low like they did last year when Cameron Smith won at 34-under par, a tournament record.
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2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions – Top-5 picks
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 3:40 p.m. ET.
Justin Thomas (+200)
Thomas already has 5 top-5s in this tournament, including 4 in the last 4 years. He’s won here twice already, too. Kapalua is a great course fit for his game, in part because of his ability to flight the ball and alter the trajectory based on what the shot demands.
Collin Morikawa (+330)
Morikawa has only played here 3 times but he’s gone T-5, T-7 and T-7 in those 3 starts. With a fresh start to the year, Morikawa will look to improve upon a 2022 season that was filled with ups and downs. His ball-striking and iron play from the wide fairways will give him plenty of close looks at birdie.
Cameron Young (+330)
Let’s go with sheer power and potential here. Young hasn’t yet won on tour, but some of his best golf has been played in star-studded fields, like the majors. In a tournament that could feature some really low scores, Young is a perfect fit. With some of the widest fairways on tour, his driver will be a weapon without simultaneously getting him into trouble like it can on narrower courses.
Also see: Sentry Tournament odds and outright winner predictions
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2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions – Top-10 picks
Jordan Spieth (+140)
Spieth cracked the top 5 in each of his first 3 starts here from 2014-17, adding a 9th-place finish in 2018. Since then, he’s only played here once, tying for 21st last year. He’s obviously comfortable on this course and his shot creativity will help him this week around the greens when he does miss from the fairway.
Tony Finau (-110)
Finau won the Houston Open and came in 7th a few weeks later at the Hero World Challenge, which is an unofficial event. That’s after ending last season with 4 top-10s in his last 5 starts, including 2 wins. His betting line is reflective of the way he’s played lately, but he’s still a good value at -110.
2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions – Matchups
Suggested play is golfer in bold.
Collin Morikawa (-120) vs. Sungjae Im (+100)
Morikawa has come close to winning here before and I expect that to continue this week. It’s tough to bet against Im, who finished last season strong, but Morikawa should contend after getting back on track in his last 2 starts (T-15 and T-9).
Justin Thomas (-110) vs. Scottie Scheffler (-110)
Talk about a heavyweight battle. I’ve already talked about Thomas’ strong history at this course, something Scheffler doesn’t have; he’s only played this event once and tied for 13th in 2021. Thomas is poised for a big week in Maui and should be near the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.
Cameron Young (-110) vs. Matthew Fitzpatrick (-110)
Fitzpatrick doesn’t typically excel in tournaments where the scores are extremely low. He’s much better when players have to grind through tough conditions like the U.S. Open’s. Young can pour in birdies like few others can and his driver will be a difference-maker this week, given the size of the fairways.
2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions – Top American
Justin Thomas (+700)
Going back to Thomas here. Scheffler (+600), Cantlay (+650) and Schauffele (+650) all have better odds than Thomas, which makes him a good value to finish as the top American in a field filled with talented ones.
2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions – Top Great Britain + Ireland
Seamus Power (+130)
This is a 1-on-1 matchup between Power and Fitzpatrick (-180), and I’m going with the underdog, who has consecutive top-5 finishes in each of his last 3 starts – including a win.
2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions – 1st-round leader
Tony Finau (+2000)
In 2 official starts this season, Finau shot 68 and 65 in his opening rounds. When he gets rolling, he’s tough to stop and I’m betting on him starting strong in Hawaii this week.
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