After finishing 8-9 in 2022, the New England Patriots made 1 move more important than any other: They hired a real offensive coordinator in Bill O’Brien. Not only does O’Brien come back to a place he is familiar with, but he also comes back to coach up QB Mac Jones, a player he coached at Alabama.
This should allow Jones to continue to ascend and this will hopefully make the Patriots a viable contender in the AFC East.
After losing Jakobi Meyers and Damien Harris this offseason, the Patriots brought in WR JuJu Smith-Schuster and TE Mike Gesicki in hopes of improving the mediocre offense. They will also look to increase their talent on defense, which they did in drafting CB Christian Gonzalez from Oregon at No. 17 and by taking edge rusher Keion White from Georgia Tech in the 2nd round.
Below, we look at the New England Patriots’ 2023 NFL Super Bowl odds from FanDuel Sportsbook along with projected win total, playoff, conference and division odds as we make our best NFL picks and predictions.
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2023 New England Patriots schedule
| WK | DATE | OPPONENT | TIME |
| All times ET *–At Frankfurt, Germany | |||
| 1 | Sept. 10 | vs. Eagles | 4:25 p.m. |
| 2 | Sept. 17 | vs. Dolphins | 8:20 p.m. |
| 3 | Sept. 24 | at Jets | 1 p.m. |
| 4 | Oct. 1 | at Cowboys | 4:25 p.m. |
| 5 | Oct. 8 | vs. Saints | 1 p.m. |
| 6 | Oct. 15 | at Raiders | 4:05 p.m. |
| 7 | Oct. 22 | vs. Bills | 1 p.m. |
| 8 | Oct. 29 | at Dolphins | 1 p.m. |
| 9 | Nov. 5 | vs. Commanders | 1 p.m. |
| 10 | Nov. 12 | vs. Colts-* | 9:30 a.m. |
| 11 | BYE WEEK | ||
| 12 | Nov. 26 | at Giants | 1 p.m. |
| 13 | Dec. 3 | vs. Chargers | 1 p.m. |
| 14 | Dec. 7 (Th) | at Steelers | 8:15 p.m. |
| 15 | Dec. 18 (M) | vs. Chiefs | 8:15 p.m. |
| 16 | Dec. 24 | at Broncos | 8:15 p.m. |
| 17 | Dec. 31 | vs. Bills | 1 p.m. |
| 18 | Jan. 6 or 7 | vs. Jets | TBD |
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Patriots over/under win total
Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook – last updated May 15 at 11:51 p.m. ET; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list.
- 7.5 wins: (Over: -118 | Under: -104)
Like the rest of the AFC East, the Patriots must play the AFC West and NFC East as cross divisional games. Unlike the other 3 teams in the division, the Patriots are not coming into the 2023 season with any expectations.
After a season of dread with Matt Patricia and Joe Judge calling plays, the Patriots have gone back to a returning son in O’Brien. Difficulties lie ahead for the Patriots in 2023 and whether Jones and O’Brien can mesh will be key to this bet hitting.
While the offense gets itself together, the defense will need to be solid and hold teams down. With an early schedule which includes the Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills and Dallas Cowboys, this will be even more important.
This team, now with a real offensive mind in charge, should be just fine once the season gets started and 7.5 wins does not seem out of reach for a team not used to being down for long.
Any bet on this line should be on OVER 7.5 WINS (-118).
Patriots Super Bowl odds
- +4500 (bet $100 to win $4,500)
These are the longest odds the Patriots have had in many seasons to win the Super Bowl.
Since the departure of Tom Brady, the Patriots have lacked the team leader needed to take a less talented roster deep into the playoffs. Things do not look to be changing this season as Jones will look to improve over his sophomore slump of last season. The Patriots will lean heavily on RB Rhamondre Stevenson for a run game.
The +4500 is a solid number for this team, but it’s money wasted. Currently slated to finish 4th in the AFC East, the Patriots would need a massive improvement over expectation to even make the playoffs, let alone win the Super Bowl. Long shots are great when they hit, but this long shot won’t hit.
PASS.
Will the Patriots make the playoffs?
- Yes +235 | No -300
The Patriots must overcome their entire division as well as several better teams including the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers in hopes of making a run.
With the Bills and Miami Dolphins making the playoffs last season and the hype surrounding the Jets, a bet either way is not recommended here.
PASS.
Odds to win AFC East Division
- Bills +130 (bet $100 to win $130)
- Jets +250 (bet $100 to win $250)
- Dolphins +290 (bet $100 to win $290)
- Patriots +750 (bet $100 to win $750)
The +750 price is not out-of-the-question odds for a Patriots team with a new offensive coordinator and hopefully a better offensive scheme.
After scoring just 364 points last season, ranking 17th in the NFL, the Patriots will look to Jones and O’Brien to get this team back into the top 10. With all 3 teams in their division having better rosters, a wager, even at +750 is not smart.
PASS.
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Patriots odds to win AFC
- +2500 (bet $100 to win $2,500)
As with most of the other bets for the Patriots, this line does not provide enough value to make a wager on it.
The +2500 line is a good payout, but with the Patriots struggling to even make the playoffs, a trip to the Super Bowl is just too far out of the realm to make a play on.
Some consider Bill Belichick to be the greatest NFL coach of all time, but his teams have not been the same since Brady left.
PASS on making a strong play here. If you want to throw a dart, make it a small dart.
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