After 2 weeks in paradise on Maui and Oahu, the PGA Tour is back in the Continental U.S. for The American Express in California. It’s the 1st leg of the California swing, returning again to PGA West and La Quinta Country Club.
Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2023 American Express odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.
It’s an unusually strong field this week by The American Express’ standards, featuring some of the top players in the world – including Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler. Rahm is the highest-ranked player in the field at No. 2 in the latest Golfweek/Sagarin rankings, followed by Scheffler, Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay.
Players will tee it up on 3 courses this week, playing each in the 1st 3 rounds: Stadium Course (PGA West), La Quinta Country Club and Nicklaus Tournament Course (PGA West). Those who make the cut after 54 holes will play the Stadium Course in the final round.
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The American Express – Top-5 picks
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 3:26 p.m. ET.
Patrick Cantlay (+240)
Cantlay has had a lot of success here in an event played in his home state, finishing 9th twice and 2nd in his 3 starts. His odds might feel a little short for a top-5 finish but he’s worth it. His track record at this event is too good to ignore, and he could very well win it outright for the 1st time.
Will Zalatoris (+425)
It might not be a bad idea to get ahead of Zalatoris’ inevitable odds juice as he continues to play in his return from a back injury. At +425, he offers good value for a top-5, which he came close to doing here last year when he tied for 6th. There is some risk with this being just his 2nd tournament of the season, so perhaps make it a smaller wager.
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The American Express – Top-10 picks
Jon Rahm (-130)
Rahm has a win and 2 other top-15 finishes in this event, which he’s played 4 times. He’s the only player without plus-money odds to finish in the top 10, so he’s far and away the favorite. Coming off his Sentry Tournament of Champions win, he’s playing better than anyone in the world right now.
Tony Finau (+150)
In his last 3 starts at The American Express, Finau has gone T-14, 4th and T-40. He enters this week with some stellar play of late having won the Houston Open in November and finished 7th at both the Hero World Challenge and Sentry Tournament of Champions.
Sungjae Im (+220)
Im should probably have shorter odds than this to finish in the top 10, but we’re not going to complain. He’s finished between 10th and 12th in this event in the last 4 years, showing he loves PGA West and La Quinta Country Club. He’s a great pick to win this week, too.
Other T10 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Cameron Davis (+450)
- Brian Harman (+300)
The American Express – Top-20 picks
Cameron Davis (+210)
Davis finished 3rd in his last trip to The American Express, which followed T-28 and T-29 finishes in the 2 years prior. He only has 1 top-20 this season, but he’s hovered around there with 4 straight top-37 finishes.
Brian Harman (+150)
Harman has made the cut 8 times in 10 tries here, including 3 top 10s. He’s finished in the top 25 in 5 of his 6 official starts this season, with 2 of those coming in the top 10 and 2 runner-up finishes. Pairing recent form and course history makes Harman a great pick.
Rickie Fowler (+300)
Fowler missed the cut at this tournament last year, but he tied for 10th in 2020 and 21st in 2021. He came in 2nd at the ZOZO Championship in October and appears to have tweaked his swing in a positive way, potentially putting him on track for a big year in 2023.
Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Harris English (+380)
- Sahith Theegala (+210)
The American Express – Matchups
Suggested play is golfer in bold.
Brian Harman (+100) vs. Sam Burns (-120)
Burns has played this tournament 3 times and come in the top 20 twice, but I’ll take the value with Harman at plus-money in this matchup. He knows these courses like the back of his hand and should be in contention on Sunday.
Will Zalatoris (-120) vs. Cameron Young (+100)
Young’s short game is really holding him back right now and these aren’t exactly courses where he can overpower with his length off the tee. I’ll take Zalatoris in this matchup after he tied for 6th here last year.
Cameron Davis (-110) vs. Aaron Wise (-110)
Wise has missed the cut here 3 years in a row. He’s a promising player who could have a strong season in 2023, but give me Davis with his course history.
The American Express – Top American
Patrick Cantlay (+700)
I actually like Cantlay to win this week so I’ll gladly take him as the top American, which takes Rahm out of the picture. He still has Scheffler, Schauffele and plenty other Americans to contend with, but eliminating Rahm makes a big difference.
More expert prop bet predictions
Group C winner: Si Woo Kim (+260)
Kim won the Sony Open last week with a come-from-behind performance on Sunday, starting 2023 on a high note. Tom Hoge (+350), Wise (+350), Taylor Montgomery (+350) and Andrew Putnam (+400) are also in this group, but Kim has the edge over them all.
Winning margin: 1 shot (+250)
The winning margin has been 2 shots in 2 of the last 3 years, and was 1 shot in 2021. This event often yields close finishes on Sunday so I’ll go with a margin of 1 shot this year.
Also see: American Express outright winner picks and predicitons
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