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The NASCAR Cup Series heads to the Homestead-Miami Speedway for the 2023 4EVER 400 presented by Mobil 1 Sunday afternoon. The green flag is set to drop shortly after 2:30 p.m. ET (NBC). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the 2023 4EVER 400 presented by Mobil 1 odds, and make our expert NASCAR picks and predictions.
2023 4EVER 400 presented by Mobil 1: What you need to know
- Joe Gibbs Racing driver Martin Truex Jr., currently 14 points behind standings leader Kyle Larson of Hendrick Motorsports, is on the pole for Sunday’s race
- MTJ has managed a win, 7 top-5 finishes and 12 top-10 runs in 18 career Cup starts at HMS, posting a 9.7 Average-Finish Position (AFP)
- Larson, who starts 5th Sunday, has a win, 5 top-5 runs and 529 laps led in 9 Cup starts in Homestead while posting a 10.7 AFP
- JGR’s Denny Hamlin leads all active drivers with 3 career wins at Homestead-Miami, posting 12 top-10 finishes in 18 starts while posting a 9.8 AFP — 1 of just 4 active drivers with a sub-10.0 AFP
- RFK Racing’s Chris Buescher, still alive for championship with 3 races to go, has struggled in his career at HMS. He has never finished better than 13th in 7 Cup starts with a dismal 19.7 AFP
- Team Penske’s Ryan Blaney, just ahead of Buescher in the standings, has just a single top-10 finish in 8 Cup starts at HMS, while turning in an 18.6 AFP
- Richard Childress Racing driver Kyle Busch, out of the championship hope, looks to play spoiler. He has 2 wins, 5 top-5 finishes and 11 top-10 runs with 465 laps led in 18 Cup starts at Homestead
- 23XI Racing’s Bubba Wallace posted a qualifying speed of 167.115 mph — 0.313 seconds behind Truex Jr. — to start on the outside of Row 1
- Toyota leads the field with 3 drivers in the top 3 spots, followed by the Ford of RFK’s Brad Keselowski, then 4 Chevrolets
- Chevrolet has won the past 2 Homestead-Miami Speedway races, with Toyota winning the previous 2 races. The last time Ford went to Victory Lane was Nov. 18, 2018, when Joey Logano capped off a championship season
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2023 4EVER 400 – Expert pick
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:01 a.m. ET.
DENNY HAMLIN (+900) has a golden opportunity to inch closer to a championship shot by winning at one of his best tracks. Hamlin leads all active drivers with 3 career checkered flags at Homestead-Miami Speedway. He sits 4th in the standings, with a precarious 2-point lead over Christopher Bell.
The biggest threat to Hamlin is Larson (+250), who is the overwhelming chalk. However, Hamlin is a better value, even more so than his teammate Truex Jr. (+500), who is on the pole.
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2023 4EVER 400 – Long shot
JOEY LOGANO (+4000) is no longer alive for a championship, but I couldn’t believe my eyes when I saw this number. Logano has won before at Homestead-Miami Speedway, locking down a championship in the 2018 installment of the race. He has a solid 15.0 AFP with 197 laps led, just 1 DNF and 4 finishes inside the top-5 in 14 career Cup starts.
2023 4EVER 400 – Best props bets
JOEY LOGANO TOP-10 FINISH (+230) for a chance to double up your initial wager seems like stealing candy from a baby. Sure, things haven’t gone according to plan for Logano, who has admittedly had a down season, but he has always been decent at this track, and he has been inside the top 5 in 3 of his past 8 races.
Another sure-fire play, although you’ll have to eat a little chalk, is DENNY HAMLIN TOP-10 FINISH (-170). That seems too good to be true. The fact you can get this under -200 is a steal.
I know Buescher doesn’t have the greatest averages at HMS, but CHRIS BUESCHER TOP-10 FINISH (+135) at plus-money is worth playing lightly. He is still in the championship hunt and will be throwing everything and the kitchen sink at the rest of the field trying to stay alive for a trophy.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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