Tag: 2022 nfl trades

Alabama’s Jameson Williams would give post-Tyreek Hill Chiefs new life

Alabama receiver Jameson Williams might be the Chiefs’ best option to replace Tyreek Hill. Now, it’s all about that torn ACL.

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On Wednesday, the Kansas City Chiefs’ offense became very different — and a lot less explosive. The trade of Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins not only takes Patrick Mahomes’ most explosive receiver away; it also changes the entire geometry of Kansas City’s offense in that Hill has speed you can’t consistently cover — you have to create an entire defensive architecture just to rein it in as much as you possibly can.

It’s why Mahomes faced far more two-deep coverage in 2021 than any other NFL quarterback, and without Hill in the picture — compounding that unpleasant reality that there’s nobody else on the roster who can approximate what Hill does — every NFL defense that has had to try and solve this calculus test is now breathing easier.

Now, it’s up to head coach Andy Reid and general manager Brett Veach to create a new math. There’s no receiver in free agency who is capable of approximating Hill’s effect on a defense, which leaves the draft, and some interesting options. Ohio State’s Chris Olave reminds me of a souped-up Cooper Kupp with his deep speed and route awareness, and I think he’d be an ideal fit in Reid’s schemes. But the Chiefs would likely have to trade up to get Olave, and while they now have the 29th and 30th overall picks in the 2022 draft as part of the Hill trade (they already had the 30th pick), they might not want to constrict their options at that part of the first round.

There is an even better option, though it comes with a bit of risk.

Alabama receiver Jameson Williams, who absolutely housed the NCAA with 79 catches for 1,572 yards and 15 touchdowns in 2021, suffered a torn ACL in the College Football Championship against Georgia. Were it not for that injury, Williams would likely be WR1 on most boards because of his route-running and field awareness, sure, but the thing that elevates Williams on tape is the constant vertical/speed threat that stress every defense the Crimson Tide faced — even Georgia’s dominant squad.

More importantly, Williams has examples on tape of doing nearly everything Hill has done — at a very high level.

Why the Chiefs cannot replace the irreplaceable Tyreek Hill

The Chiefs just traded Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins for a boatload of draft picks. Here’s why Hill is irreplaceable in Kansas City’s offense.

Just when you thought the NFL’s new league year was about as weird as we could tolerate, a blockbuster bit of news came out of Kansas City. Per multiple reports, the Kansas City Chiefs and receiver Tyreek Hill have come to an impasse in contract negotiations, and the team has allowed Hill and agent Drew Rosenhaus to seek a trade.

From there, things escalated very, very quickly. The Miami Dolphins gave up quite a haul for Hill: a 2022 first-round pick (No. 29 overall), a 2022 second-round pick (No. 50) and fourth-round pick, and fourth- and sixth-round picks in the 2023 draft. In addition, the Dolphins have already agreed to terms with Hill on a new four-year, $120 million contract extension, with $72.2 million guaranteed.

You can imagine the Arrowhead faithful hyperventilating at the thought of Hill wearing another uniform, and there’s good reason for that. Hill was selected in the fifth round of the 2016 draft due to multiple off-field issues, but as an NFL player, he’s been about as valuable at his position as they come. Since his rookie season, Hill ranks eighth in the NFL in receptions (479), seventh in yards (6,630), and third in touchdowns.

There’s also this, which further explains Miami’s eagerness to get this done.

More than that, there’s the stuff that shows up on tape that reveals Hill’s value to the Chiefs beyond boilerplate stats. Last season, per Sports Info Solutions, Patrick Mahomes faced by fa the most dropbacks against two-deep coverage (389; Matthew Stafford was second with 311), and a primary reason is that if you present a single-high look to a receiver of Hill’s explosive tendencies all over the field, you are just begging for a house call. Hill irrevocably alters the geometry of his team’s passing game, and that’s a rare trait in any era. In this era, it’s more valuable than ever.

Hill thrived in the constraints constructed to at least limit the damage he can do to a defense, catching 56 passes on 78 targets against two-deep coverage for 720 yards, 454 air yards, 266 yards after the catch, and two touchdowns.

Last season, per Pro Football Focus, Hill caught 11 passes of 20 or more air yards on 28 targets for 398 yards and three touchdowns in an offense that became more and more reductive as head coach Andy Reid and his staff tried to get Patrick Mahomes’ more rogue tendencies under control. He is by far the Chiefs’ most prolific deep receiver — Mecole Hardman and Byron Pringle combined for 13 deep catches and one deep touchdown last season.

But it’s not just that — it’s what Hill does after the catch that makes him such a major problem. You can also see how defenses react to his pre-snap movement as another indicator of how much he’s feared around the league. Hill’s 2.006 intended air yards and 585 yards after the catch in 2021 tell both sides of the same story.

What is that story? Without Tyreek Hill, Kansas City’s offense will be fundamentally different — and inarguably inferior — in a big hurry. And the film illustrates that quite perfectly.

Strap in, kids — we’re about to go on the hayride that is Tyreek Hill All-22.

4-Down Territory: Browns sell their souls, biggest trade, winning and botching free agency

In this week’s episode of 4-Down Territory, Doug Farrar and Luke Easterling get into the NFL’s major trades and free-agent signings.

Week 1 of free agency is in the books, but in this new league year, it’s trades that have ruled the news cycle. Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar, and Luke Easterling of Draft Wire and Bucs Wire, are back with yet another episode of “4-Down Territory,” in which our intrepid analysts throw a wide net over everything that’s happening in the NFL.

This week, Luke and Doug discuss why the Deshaun Watson trade is an ugly thing no matter how you look at it, which major trade benefits one team and sets the other back, and the teams that have won and botched the free-agency process.

As always, you can watch the “4-Down Territory” video right here!

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Baker Mayfield’s goodbye means that Cleveland’s Deshaun Watson idea had better work

With the Browns decidedly in the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes, Baker Mayfield appears to be saying goodbye to Cleveland.

The Cleveland Browns have firmly inserted themselves in the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes, having met with the current Texans quarterback this week as part of a dog0and-pony show that includes several other perspective suitors. So, it’s clear the Browns are at least weighing the possibility of giving up multiple first-round picks for Watson, should Watson waive his no-trade clause to make that happen.

There’s one small hitch in the equation: The Browns already have a franchise quarterback in the person of one Baker Reagan Mayfield, the first overall pick in the 2018 draft, and Cleveland’s quarterback ever since.

Awkward? Per a statement Mayfield posted on Tuesday, it would appear to be so.

“The past 4 years have been nothing short of truly life changing since I heard my name called in the draft to go to Cleveland,” Mayfield wrote. “This is not a message with hidden meaning. This is strictly to thank the city of Cleveland for embracing my family and me. We have made many memories and shared growing in this process through all the ups and downs. I have no clue what happens next, which is the meaning behind the silence I have had during the duration of this process. I can only control what I can, which is trusting in God’s plan throughout this process.

“I have given this franchise everything I have. That is something I’ve always done at every stage, and at every level. And that will not change wherever I take my next snap. Whatever happens… I just want to say thank you to the fans who truly embraced who I am and the mentality that aligned so well with this city’s hard working people. Cleveland will always be a part of Emily and my story. And we will always be thankful for the impact it has had and will have in our lives.

“Sincerely,
“Baker Reagan Mayfield.’’

This does not sound like a “maybe we can work this out” message — it appears to be as much of a goodbye message to Cleveland’s fan base as it can be without coming right out and saying it.

If the Browns are able to pry Watson away from Houston, perhaps with Mayfield as part of the haul in return? Well, that’s a net positive on the field, though Watson’s obvious off-field issues are nowhere near done, and the NFL may well respond with a suspension of some sort.

If the Browns are not able to get this deal done, it’s obvious that they’ve alienated their most important player, and given the public nature of the message, one wonders just how much Mayfield knew about his team’s interest in Deshaun Watson before it became news.

Mayfield currently has one season left with the Browns — he’s in the fifth-year option year of his rookie deal, which nets him a guaranteed $18,858 million in the 2022 league year.

Watson is coming up on the third year of the contract extension he signed in 2020, and his cap hit for 2022 will be $40,4 million. He’ll have a $20 million salary and a $17 million roster bonus that become guaranteed when the new league year begins on Tuesday.

After taking on receiver Amari Cooper’s $40 million cap hit in a recent trade, the Browns have just under $17 million to work with.

Mayfield might not be the NFL’s best quarterback, but given the way this was handled by his team, you can understand his dismay. Just as Aaron Rodgers went off for a while when the Packers moved up in the 2020 draft to select Jordan Love in the first round, when you tell your quarterback that his time with your team is limited, you can’t expect him to be all in, in the same way he may have been before.

Cleveland.com’s Mary Kay Cabot recently reported that even if the Watson idea doesn’t work out for the Browns, Mayfield could be traded anyway, due the awkwardness inherent in “welcoming” him back.

Put plainly, the Browns had better hope they get the Deshaun Watson deal done. If they don’t, there’s going to be some serious franchise backpedaling (and backsliding) going on.