Tag: 2022 divisional round

Cowboys stout run defense will be tested by 49ers bread and butter

Shanahan excels at forcing defenses to allow SF’s receivers to graze in the open field. Dallas’ defense will need to pulverize at the POA. | From @ReidDHanson

San Francisco loves to run the football. Kyle Shanahan has built a reputation for being one of the most creative and efficient play designers in the NFL. And he’s done it all with an extremely unstable quarterback situation. The 49ers haven’t missed a beat since moving to Brock Purdy at quarterback. San Francisco’s third starter has essentially picked up where Jimmy Garoppolo left off, driving the Shanahan train and sprinkling in big plays along the way.

But make no mistake, this is a run-heavy offense. And for the Cowboys to find success in Sunday’s divisional round matchup with San Francisco, Dan Quinn’s defense will have to find a way to stop the engine that makes Shanahan’s offense go.

In virtually all situations, the 49ers run the ball at a rate above expectations and it’s working out brilliantly for them. Since Week 13 (a date based on Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey’s insertion), San Francisco is ranked No. 1 in the NFL in EPA/play (expected points added) and 10th in success rate (plays that increase win probability).

Their run-heavy approach forces defenses to move players up to stop the run, to which the 49ers respond by throwing the ball downfield into loose coverage.

In the wild-card round, only two of Brock Purdy’s 30 attempts were classified as “tight coverage (defender within 1 –yard)” indicating completions have come easy for the rookie starter.

The Cowboys won’t be able to sit back in shells like they did in against the Buccaneers and just dare their opponent to run. They have to play the run first because it’s the basis for which the 49ers offense runs

“I think our biggest focus this week is tackling,” McCarthy said. “We got to have an excellent tackling performance because they do an outstanding job at breaking tackles.”

The Cowboys have been pretty successful at stopping the run as of late. Measuring the Cowboys run-stopping defense over the same timespan we just measured San Francisco, the Cowboys rank fifth in success rate and second in EPA allowed.

Quinn has made a concentrated effort to replace girth on the defensive interior with speed, length and tenacity. Carlos Watkins and Chauncey Golston are the latest examples of that.

Both players have been standout defensive linemen for Dallas down the stretch and both have essentially bumped their girthier brethren, Neville Gallimore and Quinton Bohanna, down the depth chart.

The 49ers are one of the best rushing teams in the NFL. The Cowboys have become one of the best run-stopping teams in the NFL. Something’s gotta give on Sunday.

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Here’s the honest truth preview of Cowboys-49ers

Purdy worthy of the praise? Dak a slacker or great-game stacker? We turned to @CowboysStats to answer what’s real vs what’s imagined. | From @KDDrummondNFL

Is Brock Purdy as good as his numbers say he is? Which is the real Dak Prescott; the one from Monday night or the NFL’s interception leader? Almost every conversation about this weekend’s titanic clash revolves around these digestible narratives. Those in the know, know it’s much more nuanced than the simple answer. There are eye-test anecdotes people tend to rely on; but when was their last eye exam, anyway?

No, the numbers tell a much more complete story. Analytics spit in the already-mentioned eye of the common refrain of lies, damn lies and statistics. They can’t explain what’s going to happen every time, but they certainly frame the picture of what is most likely to occur. So for this Cowboys-49ers rematch and latest chapter in an epic rivalry, it only makes sense to dive into the analytics to answer the opening two questions.

For that, we brought in the big gun. Daniel Houston, better known on Twitter by the handle CowboysStats (a must follow), lent us his insight on the fascinating QBs, their offenses and the how they intersect with each other in a detailed Q&A session.

Why Cowboys are making right call sticking with Brett Maher

Maher had been nothing short of great in 2022, here’s why the dog in him is worthy of a bit of a leash. | From @ReidDHanson

To be a successful athlete on the highest stage, one must master both the physical and mental challenges that come with it. Players that reach the highest levels of these areas are offered zero guarantees for how long they remain at such levels.

Injuries and age can sap the physical aspect, while causes of mental  decline aren’t quite as easy to predict or identify. The “yips”, defined by Merriam-Webster as “a state of nervous tension affecting an athlete in the performance of a crucial action” can affect athletes in all levels and at any given time in sports.

For Dallas Cowboys kicker Brett Maher that happened on the biggest stage of his life.

Final Injury Report: Cowboys rule out LT, 49ers running pretty clean

The Cowboys will once again trot out a different OL configuration than the one they started with the week prior. Here’s the latest injury news. | From @KDDrummondNFL

There are now less than 48 hours until kickoff of the final divisional round game of the weekend. The Dallas Cowboys have completed their truncated week of practices, with just a Saturday walkthrough remaining before they take on the San Francisco 49ers. Both teams released their final injury reports on Friday and for Dallas, there are just two players who have their playing status in an unfavorable light. The Cowboys have ruled out Jason Peters, who started the wild-card game against Tampa Bay due to a second-quarter hip injury.

Meanwhile Jayron Kearse sprained his MCL but he’s insisted all week long that he is definitely going to play. Players often provide lip service though, so he’ll have to get through pregame warmups before anyone knows for sure. There are also five other players who have been listed throughout the week, so there’s always a concern their noted ailments could pop up at some point. On the other sideline, the San Francisco 49ers have their own very limited list of trackables.

Cowboys have to be tough outside tackle box vs 49ers or perish

Edge of Tomorrow. Edge of Darkness. Razor’s Edge. If the Cowboys want to write a different script than 2021, this is where they’ll need to be tougher. | From @ReidDHanson

If this season’s Dallas Cowboys team had an origin story, it would be centered on January 16 of last year. Despite having a better record, a higher seed and home field advantage last season, the 49ers proved to be the more dominant team.

En route to a 23-17 upset, San Francisco manhandled the Cowboys. They pounded the ball, controlled the trenches, opened holes and broke tackles. From a physicality standpoint, it was total domination. Mentally, the Cowboys were broken.

The loss sent Dallas into the off-season questioning their entire makeup. They learned it didn’t matter if they had the better play called or the more explosive players on the field. If they couldn’t win physically, they were destined to get beat.

Toughening up was the talk of the off-season. It drove their decision making in free agency and the draft. It shaped the roster and took them to where they are today: the divisional round of the NFL playoffs.

Presumably, the San Francisco running game will test the edge early and often on Sunday. Their pin-pull running game that isn’t afraid to use skill players to block, creates angles for players and confusion for the opposition.

The Cowboys have shown a weakness at defensive end this season and have particularly struggled with motion at the snap and containment.

While Brock Purdy’s rushing ability is unlikely to invoke fear in a zone-read attack, the Cowboys’ vulnerability is out there and Kyle Shanahan has a knack for attacking vulnerabilities, especially if they can play to his team’s strengths.

The 49ers top rusher, Christian McCaffrey, is at his most efficient running off tackle (5.0 y/c average). Deebo Samuel is even better, averaging 6.1 yards/carry off tackle and 5.8 on outside runs (per sisdatahub).

Controlling the edge doesn’t stop at defensive end, it extends to linebackers, safeties and cornerbacks(dependent on specific run fits). The Cowboys run primarily out nickel looks (extra defensive back instead of third linebacker) so players like Donovan Wilson and Jayron Kearse will have to play big against the run.

The tape is out on Trevon Diggs as well. He may be able to boast a 1.7 missed tackle percentage this season, but that’s only because avoids tackling. Diggs is an extremely disinterested tackler who would much rather play a ball in the air than a ball on the ground.

Shanahan is going to run at Diggs at much as possible because the film shows it’s a weakness and Diggs’ 16.1 missed tackle percentage from 2021 is too hard to overlook.

The Cowboys’ game plan against Tampa Bay needed to show creativity and execution. They did that. Dallas will need a repeat effort to win in San Francisco but more importantly, they have to show they’re a tougher team than they were last year. That battle will be fought on the edges.

Bigger threat to Cowboys, Christian McCaffrey or Deebo Samuel?

The Cowboys have two monsters to try to prepare for and it may be impossible to focus on one more than the other. | From @ReidDHanson

There’s no question the Dallas Cowboys will have their work cut out for them when they travel to San Francisco on Sunday to take on the 49ers. The 13-4 49ers are in the midst of a now 11-game winning streak, a shocking feat given they’re playing with their third different starting quarterback this season.

San Francisco’s success comes from having strong play at nearly every position, elite coaching, and game breaking playmakers who can score from anywhere on the field. Two of such playmakers are running back Christian McCaffrey and receiver Deebo Samuel.

McCaffrey, a once criticized mid-season addition, has been lights-out for the 49ers. In his 11 regular season games since joining the team, he accumulated 746 yards on the ground, 464 through the air and 10 total touchdowns.

In Kyle Shanahan’s run-heavy offense, McCaffrey is expected to get a steady workload of carries and targets against Dallas on Sunday.

Deebo Samuel is a playmaker the Cowboys are quite familiar with. The 6-foot 215-pound game wrecker has elite strength and speed, making him a weapon wherever he gets the ball on the field. In last year’s postseason matchup against Dallas, Samuel had a dreadfully efficient, 10 carries for 72 yards and a touchdown.

Cumulatively, McCaffrey looks like the bigger threat since Samuel only had 864 total yards and five touchdowns. But McCaffrey gets considerably more opportunities than Samuel, so bigger totals are expected. It’s about who does the most with their opportunities and for that we look at rushing yards over expected.

While both players offer significant risk to the Cowboys on Sunday, one stands out more than the other.

Clearly neither player can be taken lightly, but Samuel stands out as the much scarier weapon. Granted, his sample size is small, but his rushing yards over expected are in elite territory. At 1.8 yards over what his blockers are giving him, he’s as dangerous as they come in the NFL.

For reference, Tony Pollard who is top-10 in RYOE, is offering less than a third of his production over expected. McCaffrey is racking up the tough yards and can be a weapon in multiple ways but he’s basically taking what’s given to him and rushing at expectation levels.

The takeaway is when Samuel lines up in the backfield or motions vertically across the formation, the Cowboys defense has to take extra notice and play him accordingly because he’s a far more dangerous weapon.

This was born out in the wild-card win over the Seahawks. McCaffrey had 119 yards on the ground, averaging a nasty 7.9 per carry. But Samuels’ three carries for 32 yards were for an explosive 10.7 yards a rip. Samuels finished the game with nine touches for 165 yards while McCaffrey had 17 for 136. It’s quite the conundrum for Dallas to have to prepare for both.

6 things to know about the challenge 49ers present the Cowboys

The rookie quarterback is supported by an insane cast, here’s what to know about the challenges the 49ers present. | From @BenGrimaldi

The rivalry will be renewed when the Dallas Cowboys play the San Francisco 49ers in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs. The teams last played in last year’s wild-card round the Cowboys lost at home. It was crushing loss for Dallas in not just that they lost in the opening round, but how they looked discombobulated for much of the game. Losing in the postseason is always a gut punch but falling to the 49ers made it a tougher pill to swallow.

The final play will go down as one of the more controversial calls in recent memory. The Cowboys battled back from being down all game, only to miss out on a final chance at the win while trying to get a final try off. The Cowboys can exact some measure of revenge by going into San Francisco and returning the favor. Here are six things to know about the divisional matchup.

Cowboys could use more of this version of Michael Gallup

Gallup might not be 100% back from last season’s injury, but Monday’s performance sparks hope he can be a vital cog on Sunday. | From @ReidDHanson

Michael Gallup has taken his fair share of criticism this season. The 26-year-old receiver was re-signed in the off-season to serve as the Cowboys WR2 for the foreseeable future. His presence, combined with CeeDee Lamb’s development, made Amari Cooper somewhat expendable.

The club didn’t mind the fact Gallup was recovering from offseason knee surgery after tearing his ACL in Week 17 last season. The brass swore he would be ready to go by opening day and thanks to that set the expectation  Gallup would pick up the slack left by Cooper.

As sane ones could imagine, the season started slowly for Gallup. Despite playing in 14 games, Gallup posted a career low in receiving yards. Twice before Gallup played 14 or few games and both of those times his production exceeded his modest totals in 2022.

Explosiveness and speed have been called into question throughout the season with some wondering if Gallup will ever be a legitimate weapon again this season.

While he’s unlikely to regain his pre-injury form in however many games Dallas has left, his performance against Tampa Bay had him reemerging as a weapon on this Dallas offense and an asset for quarterback Dak Prescott heading into the divisional round.

A rested Tony Pollard making big difference for Cowboys’ playoff run

Pollard’s usage over the last month of the season resulted in a fresh postseason version and it showed. | From @ReidDHanson

A solid argument can be made that running back Tony Pollard has been the Cowboys’ offensive MVP in 2022. When Dak Prescott was out earlier in the year and the Cowboys were starved for playmakers, Pollard stepped up and provided big play after big play, keeping Dallas afloat and the Cowboys in the win column.

When Prescott returned, Pollard continued his MVP ways, leading Dallas in rushing yards, rushing yards over expectation, and touchdowns. He’s been a threat to score from anywhere on the field and Kellen Moore’s master key to unlock the offense.

Nearing the postseason, the Cowboys wisely pulled back on the reigns of Pollard. Over the final three weeks of the season, Pollard totaled just 16 rushing attempts and nine receptions.

With only 25 total touches over roughly the last month of the season, Dallas was able to enter the postseason with arguably their most important weapon rested and ready.

The results are hard to argue with. . .

Pollard ran for 77 yards at 5.12 yards per carry against Tampa’s stout defense. His expected points on the ground were a full 3.1 (total on the day) over his counterpart, Ezekiel Elliott.

Pollard routinely created something from nothing and added value to a play on nearly every touch. This is no departure from the norm; This season, Pollard finished seventh in the NFL in rushing yards over expected.

By keeping his snap share down over the course of the season (50.9%) the Cowboys have reduced the amount of wear and tear most lead running backs have entering the playoffs.

The late season rest was also the result of a thigh bruise that kept him out against the Titans in late December; a game Pollard likely would’ve played if not for the competition level. Added all together, it has given Dallas a fresh postseason Pollard who already played a major role in dispatching the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the wild-card round. Now he’ll be key to success against San Francisco in the divisional matchup with the 49ers.

Injury Report: Cowboys, 49ers sit Hall of Famers to begin divisional round prep

Jason Peters is the Cowboys’ biggest injury concern, while the 49ers had three different players sit on Wednesday. | From @KDDrummondNFL

The Dallas Cowboy barely had 24 hours of rest before having to begin their on-field prep work for the NFC divisional round. Meanwhile their opponent, the 11-wins-in-a-row San Francisco 49ers have been doing their mental exercises for four days now. Regardless of the lopsided nature, both clubs are tasked with being ready to go come Sunday evening.

Wednesday marks the first official day of practice and in turn the first report of injury statuses for those who have been hurt for a while and recently nicked up. For Dallas, their list includes the biggest injury from their wild-card victory in Tampa, left tackle Jason Peters. Peters hurt his hip and left the game in the second quarter, never to return. He sat out on Wednesday. Meanwhile his future-Hall-of-Fame counterpart Trent Williams sat out on Wednesday for a different reason. Here’s a look at those to keep an eye on.