Tag: 2021 player profile

Rookie Rundown: WR Kadarius Toney, Florida

Versatile Kadarius Toney angles for a first-round selection

Kadarius Toney was a dual-threat quarterback for his final two seasons of high school in Alabama and was recruited by most of the SEC. He opted for Florida over Alabama, knowing that his transition from high school to college would change his position to wide receiver.

Toney was active for eight games as a freshman and started two. He caught 15 passes for 152 yards in one and then started as a running back in the other when he ran for 120 yards on 14 rushes with one score. He played a reserve role as a sophomore and even played as a wildcat quarterback in some games. As a junior, he would only play for seven games after injuring his shoulder but again was used as a receiver, running back, and wildcat quarterback.

Toney was well served by returning for his senior season. He led the Gators with 70 catches for 984 yards and ten touchdowns. He also ran 19 times for 161 yards and returned 18 punts and kickoffs. He was voted first-team SEC as an all-purpose player and was a finalist for the Paul Hornung Award for most versatile performer.

Height: 5-11
Weight: 193 pounds
40 time: 4.39 seconds

He enters the NFL draft with an intriguing set of talents that could fit into a number of different roles for his team. What he doesn’t have is a lengthy resume as a receiver. But he comes off a season that suggests he has a role as an NFL starter, particularly from the slot.

WR Kadarius Toney, Florida Stats

Year Games Catch Yards Avg. TD Runs Yards. TD Total Yards Total TDs
2017 8 15 152 10.1 0 14 120 1 272 1
2018 12 25 260 10.4 1 21 240 0 500 1
2019 7 10 194 19.4 1 12 59 0 253 1
2020 11 70 984 14.1 10 19 161 1 1145 11

Toney is expected to be no later than a second-round pick, with a high chance of going in the latter part of the first round. His background points at a player that can be used in almost any skill position. His special teams work should see him carve a role as a rookie in the NFL, and his receiving skills will likely show up in his first year. Throw in his ability to run and pass the ball as well, and Toney could be a speedy and deadly weapon in a creative, complex offense that can use him in multiple roles.

Pros

  • Explosive offensive playmaker
  • Speed makes him a threat to score on any play
  • One of the most versatile players in draft
  • Special teams returner
  • Inventive offensive coordinator’s dream
  • Physical runner that plays bigger than his size
  • Hasn’t found his ceiling as a receiver
  • Burst and fluidity landed him moniker of “human joystick”
  • Can play any position, but slot is ideal
  • Electric in open field

Cons

  • Still needs work on route running
  • Only started at wideout for one year
  • Needs to improve run blocking
  • Size likely keeps him as a slot receiver
  • Battled injuries at times

Fantasy outlook

Toney isn’t expected to become a No. 1 wideout for a team but could carve a significant role as a slot receiver, returner, and dangerous weapon on end-around runs, jet sweeps, reverses, and even the occasional wildcat quarterback play.

He presents an interesting package for an offense to use. In fantasy terms, his role may be les reliable than desired. While he should help his team with his broad set of skills, it may take time to see him evolve into a receiver with a heavy enough workload to merit a fantasy start. His team could use him as a returner at first and limit his plays from scrimmage.

He’ll also be more likely successful in an offense that uses the slot as much as the outside position, though most NFL teams rely on 3-man sets and Toney can potentially play outside if needed. He has the talents and physical attributes that should spell success at the NFL. Any use of him as a runner only boosts his fantasy value.

His lack of playing time as a pure receiver could see him drop into the second round and force teams to view him as more of a development player that can offer special teams and occasional work as a receiver to start his career.  A first-round selection will indicate that his team considers him as a definite rookie contributor.

Rookie Rundown: QB Justin Fields, Ohio State

Fields looks to add to the first-round frenzy for quarterbacks

This year’s NFL draft eagerly awaits five quarterbacks that are projected to fall over the first ten picks. Justin Fields is most often third or fourth taken in almost every mock draft out there. The junior from Ohio State started as a much-coveted five-star recruit out of high school that offered a true dual threat. As a two-year starter, he totaled 4,187 passing yards and ran for 2,096 yards with a total of 69 touchdowns.

As a freshman at Georgia, he was the backup to Jake Fromm. He transferred to Ohio State the next year and became their starter. Fields was phenomenal in his first year there, throwing for 41 touchdowns and rushing for ten more. He was a Heisman Trophy finalist and the Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year. The Buckeyes’ only loss was in the Fiesta Bowl to Clemson during the College Football Playoff semifinal.

Fields was a leading contender for the Heisman entering 2020 but the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic shortened the season. The Buckeyes started playing in late October and went undefeated in the regular season. During the College Football Playoffs, Fields led the team to a win over Clemson and then advanced to the National Championship game where they lost to Alabama. Fields was injured during the win over Alabama but continued to play. He was again selected as the Big Ten’s Offensive Player of the Year. He declared for the draft instead of returning for his final year of eligibility.

Height: 6-3
Weight: 228 pounds
40 time: 4.43 seconds

He is an exceptional athlete that also excelled as a baseball player in high school. NFL offenses are evolving to make use of dual-threat quarterbacks and Fields was as dangerous when he ran as when he passed. His ability to move the pocket and throw on the run will fit nicely into pro-style offenses.

Unlike many college quarterbacks that can throw and run, Fields is a passer first and foremost and his rushing merely makes him even more dangerous. This is not a miscast running back that can throw deep.

QB Justin Fields, Ohio State stats

Year Games Runs Yards TD Pass Comp. Yards Avg. TD Int QBR
2018* 12 42 266 4 39 27 328 8.4 4 0 173.7
2019 14 137 484 10 354 238 3273 9.2 41 3 181.4
2020 8 81 383 5 225 158 2100 9.3 22 6 175.6

Pros

  • Never lost a game as a starter other than in the playoffs
  • Big frame that can withstand hits
  • Faster than most running backs despite his size
  • Forces defenses to respect his run
  • Moves well laterally to avoid rush
  • Tough competitor that never quits
  • Poised in pocket
  • Great fit for RPO plays on West Coast offenses
  • Accurate on the move and standing tall
  • Physical rusher that will get the short yards
  • Extensive work out of the shotgun
  • Polished and consistent footwork

Cons

  • Still has room to grow as a passer
  • Only average vision for downfield targets
  • Needs better anticipation for where receivers will be
  • Receivers sometimes slow down to catch deep throws
  • Can hold the ball too long

Fantasy outlook

Fields said that he modeled his game after the smaller and slower Russell Wilson. He’s was a proven winner at Ohio State and led them to the National Championship game. His downside – whatever that actually ends up being – is that he was inconsistent last year when he passed. Wilson fell in the draft because he was smaller at 5-11 and 215 pounds. Fields enters the NFL with similar attributes only bigger and faster.

While Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson are locks as the first two picks, there is less certainty as to when Fields, Trey Lance and even Mac Jones will exactly go other than all are likely Top-10 picks.

Barring trades (which are always possible), Fields will be considered by the 49ers, Falcons, and Panthers. There is also a chance that a team like the Patriots could move up to access a top quarterback.

Fields rookie value depends on whether he ends up on a team like the Falcons where he could “season” for a year, or to a team that will press him into duty as a rookie. His rushing ability will help his fantasy value and make him a starting consideration. While there are some concerns about the consistency of his passing, Fields is very much in the mold of a current-day NFL quarterback. He’ll offer fantasy value in any game that he starts, even as a rookie.

Rookie Rundown: WR D’Wayne Eskridge, Western Michigan

Eskridge rises on draft boards after a great Senior Bowl

D’Wayne Eskridge is expected to be a second or third-round pick though he sports an unusual resume. The ex-Bronco enters the NFL at the age of 24, having spent five seasons at Michigan State. He’s rising up draft boards despite never scoring more than eight touchdowns or gaining over 811 yards in any of his five years.

Eskridge was a rare two-way player, serving as both a wide receiver and a cornerback at times. He became a starter as a sophomore and posted 506 yards on 30 receptions in Michigan State’s low-volume passing attack. As a junior, he opened the year with eight catches for 240 yards and two scores versus Syracuse but was limited to only two catches in most games. He averaged 20.4 yards per catch that year.

As a senior, he suffered a broken collar bone that required surgery. Since he had not played more than four games and had not used a redshirt year, he was allowed to return for a fifth season. 2019 had him working more as a cornerback with just three catches over those initial four starts.

His final season saw him explode. While the Broncos were limited to only six games in their COVID-shortened year, Eskridge was nearly unstoppable with over 100 yards in all but one game  and posting 212 yards and three scores on only four receptions versus Central Michigan. He averaged 23.3 yards per catch while he abused MAC cornerbacks.

Height: 5-9
Weight: 190 pounds
40 time: 4.33 seconds

Returning for that fifth season benefitted Eskridge in his bid to land in the NFL. He is a freakishly athletic player in every metric. He squatted over 500 pounds, had a  vertical leap of 37.5-inches, and is a blur when he runs. His limitation was more playing on a team that didn’t throw that much.

WR D’Wayne Eskridge, Western Michigan Stats

Year Games Catch Yards Avg. TD Runs Yards. TD Total Yards Total TDs
2016 10 17 121 7.1 1 6 60 0 181 1
2017 12 30 506 16.9 3 4 13 0 519 3
2018 11 38 776 20.4 3 0 0 0 776 3
2019 4 3 73 24.3 0 0 0 0 73 0
2020 6 33 768 23.3 8 2 43 0 811 8

Pros

  • Gifted athlete in strength, speed and agility
  • Great first step off the line of scrimmage
  • Homerun threat and not just deep passes
  • Tremendous after the catch gains
  • Comfortable at all three levels of the route
  • Cornerback experience helps against defenders
  • Competitive
  • Extra gear gives him instant burst
  • Dangerous return man
  • Stretches the field to help all receivers

Cons

  • Smaller sized hands
  • Under-sized frame
  • Operated in a basic passing offense
  • Smaller size may limit outside work in the NFL
  • Minor drop issues
  • Already 24 years old
  • Relied more on speed than crisp routes

Fantasy outlook

Eskridge heads to the NFL as one of those players that could surprise even as a rookie with blazing speed and great athleticism. Or he may end up like most other receivers that looked great playing on a team that did not often throw using a simplified passing scheme against a lower tier of college opponents. He’ll  be 28 years old at the end of his rookie contract. Consider that against mostly 21-year-olds that inhabit the top of the draft.

That’s not to say he doesn’t have a place in the NFL. But projecting him as a future No. 1 receiver is hard to do given his size, limited experience in a pro-style offense and age. He’ll offer Year 1 value if he lands with a team looking to add a field-stretching slot receiver that can – at least on occasion – offer deep catches. But his consistency as a rookie will be tough to rely on in the best case.

His value is higher in NFL-terms than fantasy. He can return kicks and punts, force safeties to pay attention, and turn in at least a handful of impressive plays if he gets behind the defense. He will have to be accounted for by the defense.

His early value will be highly dependent on where he lands. Eskridge isn’t likely to end up on a team seeking a new No. 1 receiver. But he could fit into an offense that already sports a formidable passing game and can use him as a piece of the puzzle.

Rookie Rundown: WR DeVonta Smith, Alabama

Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith proves size doesn’t matter

What’s not to like about the Heisman Trophy winner who set all-time receiving records at Alabama? Maybe his size? Does it matter? It certainly didn’t matter playing at the highest level in college football.

While he played sparingly as a freshman, he became a factor on the 2018 National Championship team when he provided the game-winning touchdown in overtime. That was playing behind Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs. In 2019, Ruggs left and Smith outplayed Jeudy when he became the Crimson Tide’s top receiver with 68 catches for 1,256 yards and 14 touchdowns.

Rather than follow Jeudy in declaring for the 2020 NFL draft, Smith returned for his senior season, where he posted an astronomic 117 receptions for 1,856 yards and 23 touchdowns in only 13 games. Smith became the first wideout ever to win the AP Player of the Year. He  secured the 2020 Heisman Trophy as the first wide receiver since 1991 and only the fourth ever.

Smith’s final matchup was another National Championship where he set records for the title game with 12 catches for 215 yards and three touchdowns. He was named the Offensive MVP of the game. He only played in the first half because of a finger injury.

Height: 6-1
Weight: 170-ish pounds
40 time: 4.4-ish seconds

Smith did not merely dominate, he was the best player on the best team versus the best of all opponents. Smith leaves Alabama with every conceivable box already checked. He opted to sit out of the 2021 Senior Bowl because there was nothing left to prove.

Without an NFL Combine and electing to sit out of both Alabama Pro Days, there is no current measure on his weight or 40-time. He’s been listed between 170 and 179 pounds, but his frame suggests the 170 is more likely. According to previous 40-yard dashes that were not official, Smith ran between a 4.3 and 4.5. Regardless, catching 117 passes and scoring 24 total touchdowns for Alabama indicate that he’s plenty “football fast” in any case.

WR Devonta Smith, Alabama Stats

Year Games Catch Yards Avg. TD Runs Yards. TD Total Yards Total TDs
2017 8 8 160 20.0 3 0 0 0 160 3
2018 13 42 693 16.5 6 0 0 0 693 6
2019 13 68 1256 18.5 14 0 0 0 1256 14
2020 13 117 1856 15.9 23 4 6 1 1862 24

His weight will likely cause him to drop slightly in the draft, though by all accounts he remains a first rounder. Finding a player to equate him to is difficult. Over the last ten years, the number of wideouts drafted that were over 6-0 and yet weighed under 180 pounds is zero. The only 6-0 receivers in that metric were DeDe Westbrook (2017: 6-0, 178 pounds) and Paul Richardson (2014: 6-0, 175 pounds). Neither have done much.

The only lighter first-round wideouts drafted in the last ten years were Marquise Brown (2019: 5-11, 165 pounds) and Tavon Austin (2013: 5-8, 174 pounds). Neither delivered on their expectations. The reality is that NFL-caliber defensive backs are hard to beat regardless, and more so for those less able to contend with physical contact from elite cornerbacks.

Tavon Austin’s senior season at West Virginia produced a stat line of 114-1289-12, plus 643 yards as a runner. He’s never gained more than 473 receiving yards in the NFL. Marquise Brown’s final year at Oklahoma totaled 75-1318-10, and he was the first wideout drafted in 2019. Two years in the NFL and his best season was 769 yards and eight scores in 2020.

Another parallel that gets drawn considers Marvin Harrison who stood 6-0 and weighed 181 pounds at his 1996 combine. And he excelled. Then again, he also was a rookie 25 years ago and the NFL evolves every season.

The other reality is that Smith crushed it at every level that he’s ever played. Reaching two National Championships means he already faced the best defenses that the NCAA can provide and won big. He won the Heisman Trophy. He became the MVP of a National Championship game.

What more could he have done?

Pros

  • Excellent route discipline
  • Tremendous timing
  • Smart and instinctual football player
  • Elusive runner
  • Doesn’t shy away from the ball ever
  • Polished and mature player
  • Initial quickness negates press coverage
  • Consistent
  • Always gets the job done
  • Special teams experience
  • Great hands, makes contested  catches

Cons

  • Blocking skills are average
  • Smaller frame a concern versus NFL defenders

Fantasy outlook

In Smith’s final game when he was the National Championship MVP, he dislocated his finger and tore ligaments but there are no concerns that it will be any issue.

While Smith has a slimmer frame than any other wideout of any note, he’s still expected to be selected in the first fifteen picks of the NFL draft and among the first three  receivers taken.  He’ll be fascinating to watch from a pure football perspective since he’s been the best of the best and could end up as a first-round “bargain” if he can continue to deliver.

He projects mostly as a slot receiver since he may not possess the size and strength to be a traditional X-receiver. But he will be drafted to become a No. 1 receiver and his poise, intelligence and experience should shorten any learning curve significantly.

Smith is linked to the Bengals, Dolphins, Lions, Panthers, Eagles, Patriots, and Chargers but he could go almost anywhere if a team opts to move up and select the talented prospect. That could very well end up happening if there is any sense that he is falling in the draft.

We’ll see if Smith is the next Marvin Harrison or just the next Tavon Austin. Or maybe, he’ll just continue to be the elite player that others are compared against.

Rookie Rundown: RB Michael Carter, North Carolina

Carter ready to take a situational role in the NFL.

Here’s the other half of the 1-2 punch of the Tarheel’s backfield for the last two seasons. Combined with Javonte Williams, Michael Carter rushed for over 1,000 yards in both 2019 and 2020. And both are expected to be drafted in the first three rounds.

As a senior at Navarre High School in Florida, Carter totaled 3,345 all-purpose yards and 45 total touchdowns as the USA Today Florida Offensive Player of the Year.

Carter was the No. 2 back for his first two seasons at North Carolina and then paired with Williams for a dominating backfield as a junior and senior. He was the No. 1 back in 2019 and then almost perfectly split the workload with Williams in 2020.

The final game of last season was against Miami. The duo combined for 544 rushing yards to set the all-time NCAA record for two running backs in a single game. Carter contributed 308 yards on 24 carries in that matchup for his ninth career game with over 100 yards. Despite the split backfield, Carter still turned in at least 16 carries in over half his games last year.

Height: 5-8
Weight: 190 pounds
40 time: 4.50 seconds

Carter opted out of the 2021 Orange Bowl to prepare for the NFL draft. While his teammate Williams is expected to be a first- or second-round pick, Carter is more likely to be a second- or third-round selection. He’s smaller at only 5-8, 190 pounds, while Williams is 5-10, 220 pounds. That makes a more significant difference in the NFL.

Running Back Michael Carter, North Carolina Stats (2017-2020)

Year Games Runs Yards Avg. TD Catch Yards. TD Total Yards Total TDs
2017 11 97 559 5.8 8 11 100 1 659 9
2018 9 84 597 7.1 2 25 135 1 732 3
2019 13 177 1003 5.7 3 21 154 2 1157 5
2020 11 156 1245 8.0 9 25 267 2 1512 11

Pros

  • Versatile rusher, receiver and blocker
  • Quick, creative rusher
  • Excellent vision
  • Smaller size helps get lost to second-level defenders
  • Solid route runner
  • Mismatch for linebackers to cover
  • Elusive in space
  • Plays tough despite size, physical when needed
  • Can return kicks and punts
  • Patient runner

Cons

  • Lack of size limits inside effectiveness
  • Projects as a situational or rotational back in the NFL
  • Quicker than fast, lacks upper gear
  • Benefitted from a great offensive line

Fantasy outlook

Carter is expected to join a committee backfield where he can become a part of the rotation – as he did in college. He finished with 82 receptions at North Carolina and should find at least a niche as a third-down back in the NFL. He was very productive with the ball in college, but at least part of that success came due to the quality of his blocking in a dominating Tarheel’s rush attack that created two “full-time” backs.

Dropping back to the second round, or more likely the third, he’ll be available to all teams looking to add to their backfield. Carter may not become a workhorse, but he can offer a valuable situational role. That fits with the style of offense that is popular in the current NFL.

The further he falls in the draft, the less likely he is a fantasy factor as a rookie. But if he is taken in the first three rounds by a team with an incomplete backfield, he’ll merit stashing on fantasy rosters.

He’ll most likely be a consideration for the Cardinals, Falcons, Broncos, Dolphins, Patriots, Jets, and Steelers.

Rookie Rundown: TE Kyle Pitts, Florida

Kyle Pitts is a unique difference maker that no one can cover

The quarterbacks may take center stage in this draft, but tight end Kyle Pitts is more interesting and has the highest potential fantasy value. Including for this year.  His draft stock continues to rise, and he’s speculated to go as high as No. 3 overall.

Pitts became the starting tight end for Florida as a sophomore and earned the First Team All-SEC team that year. His 54 receptions led the team.

As a junior, he played only eight games due to a concussion/facial injury but he dominated with 12 touchdowns as their primary receiver. He ended with three 100-yard games last year, including seven catches for 129 yards and a score against Alabama in his final college game.

Pitts won the John Mackey Award as the top college tight end. He was the first tight end to be named as a Fred Biletnikoff award finalist that is given to the top college wide receiver. He skipped the Cotton Bowl and announced for the NFL draft.

Height: 6-6
Weight: 245 pounds
40 time: 4.44 seconds

The ex-Gator generates tremendous interest in the draft. He offers the rare combination of size and speed that recalls Calvin Johnson. He’s a pass-catching tight end that can line up anywhere on the field. He’s already drawn comparisons to Darren Waller and Travis Kelce.

Kyle Pitts Florida stats (2018-2020)

Year Games Catch Yards Avg. TD Runs Yards. TD Total Yards Total TDs
2018 3 3 73 24.3 1 0 0 0 73 1
2019 13 54 649 12.0 5 0 0 0 649 5
2020 8 43 770 17.9 12 0 0 0 770 12

The highest-drafted tight ends in the last ten years were Eric Ebron (2014 – 1.10) and O.J. Howard (2017 – 1.19) along with five other first rounders. The earliest selected tight ends in NFL history were Vernon Davis (2003) and Kellen Winslow Jr. (2004), who were both sixth-overall selections. There is a possibility that Pitts resets that record.

If you think his college stats look low, realize that Kelce only totaled 875 yards and ten touchdowns in his three years at the University of Cincinnati. Waller ended with 971 yards and nine scores in his three years at Georgia Tech. Pitts was phenomenal last season.

Pros

  • “Generational talent”
  • Mismatch against smaller corners and slower linebackers
  • Rare mix of size, speed and athleticism
  • Can play any position
  • Excellent route runner
  • Superior body control when he goes up for a catch
  • Red-zone threat
  • Not only fast but can vary route speed
  • Excellent change-of-direction skills
  • Wingspan still reaches poorly thrown balls
  • Elite acceleration off line
  • Strong, soft hands no matter angle of pass
  • Uses speed, agility, and hands to control the defender
  • Wins contested catches
  • Great work ethic

Cons

  • Not built for in-line blocking
  • Concussion in 2020
  • Not an aggressive blocker

Fantasy outlook

The fantasy outlook for Pitts is exceptionally high in an offensive position that serves up very few difference-makers. And while tight ends typically all but disappear as a rookie, Pitts should be a contributor even as a rookie. Potentially, his first-year role could be significant depending on which offense and passing scheme that he joins.

The consensus is that he’s not only a first-round talent but a slam dunk Top-10 and maybe even a Top-5 pick this year. While previous top picks like Vernon Davis and Kellen Winslow Jr. never produced elite stats, Pitts is considered a better prospect than either.

He enters the NFL when offenses are starting to feature receiving tight ends as primary targets. Like any rookie, his outlook depends greatly on where he ends up and who throws him passes.  But no team spends a Top-10 or Top-5 pick without expecting to optimize the player’s talents.

His perceived value has him as the subject of trade rumors that will last up until the NFL draft. Quarterbacks are expected to dominate the first five picks but Pitts could end up in that group, possibly as the subject of a draft trade. He’s speculated to end up with the Falcons, Dolphins, Lions, Panthers and Cowboys. His first-year fantasy value takes a hit if he lands in Atlanta or Dallas since they are already receiver-rich.

As a fantasy dynasty pick, he could be argued to be the top rookie for 2021. The lifespan of a tight end is much longer than a running back and his path to being a Top-5 player in his position if far greater than any of the 2021 rookie wideouts.

Rookie Rundown: QB Zach Wilson, BYU

Zach Wilson poised to be a top-3 draft pick

Start spreading the news.

Former BYU quarterback Zach Wilson may or may not be as good as Trevor Lawrence, but the consensus is that he’s a better draft pick than any other rookie this year. That means falling to the 1.02 pick by the New York Jets. That No. 3 spot varies greatly in projections and draft guesses but Wilson will be a Jet or the draft kicks off with a surprise.

As a true freshman, he started seven games and ended with a season-best 317 yards and four touchdowns against Western Michigan in the 2018 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl where he was named as the game MVP.

As a sophomore, he started nine games and ended up in the 2019 Hawaii Bowl where he was against the game MVP.

As a junior, he enjoyed a stellar year when he passed for 3,692 yards and 33 touchdowns and ran in ten more scores on his 70 rushes for 254 yards.  He ended as the MVP if the 2020 Boca Raton Bowl. He also beat BYU alum Steve Young’s school record with a 73.5% completion rate.

Wilson recorded 15 touchdowns as a rusher at BYU, but they were almost all short scores and he only averaged 3.0 yards per rush. He’s not a running quarterback per se but can certainly rush in touchdowns in addition to throwing them.

Height: 6-3
Weight: 210 pounds
40 time: 4.84 seconds

His star was rising after his sophomore season, but his strong junior campaign rocketed him up the draft boards. He had been hampered by a torn labrum that was repaired between his first two seasons. A right-hand injury impacted his second year and it too required surgery. But his junior season was all healthy and served up what Wilson was capable of doing.

Zach Wilson BYU stats (2018-20)

Year Games Runs Yards TD Pass Complete Yards Avg. TD Int QBR
2018 9 75 221 2 182 120 1578 13.2 12 3 157.2
2019 9 67 167 3 319 199 2382 12.0 11 9 130.8
2020 12 70 254 10 336 247 3692 14.9 33 3 196.4

Pros

  • Accurate passer
  • Big arm
  • Rarely makes an error
  • Can make any throw
  • Poised in pocket, almost fearless
  • Confident and very competitive
  • Big arm that can has touch on deep tosses
  • Throws very catchable ball
  • Smart player that excels reading defenses
  • Enough mobility to avoid rush and buy time
  • Burst as a runner helps notch short rushing scores
  • Expected to continue to improve
  • Athletic

Cons

  • Only had one big year
  • Did not face top competition
  • Could use more weight
  • Some character concerns as too confident
  • Needs work on anticipation
  • injuries in high school and in college

Fantasy outlook

There is a chance that the Jets surprise with their 1.02 pick and select Justin Fields, but odds are heavily leaning to Wilson ending up in New York where there has never been a 4,000-yard passer since the league went to 16 games in 1978. On the plus, he gets that extra 17th game this year to break the curse.

Sam Darnold never experienced the level of success expected when the Jets grabbed him in 2018 with their 1.03 pick. Or the 2009 1.05 pick they used on Mark Sanchez. The Jets history of underwhelming at the quarterback spot is lengthy and uncomfortable.

There’s a new coaching staff with HC Robert Saleh and OC Mike LaFleur, so the rebuild begins centered around Wilson. The talent of receivers remains below average, but they are expected to mine the draft for wideouts. The 2021 outlook is low given the installation of new schemes, new coaches, new players and just being Year 1 of a rebuild. His dynasty value is much higher, but even then the history of the position points to marginal fantasy position for the Jets and Wilson is just the newest young gun trying to turn the franchise around.

Rookie Rundown: RB Kylin Hill, Mississippi State

Kylin Hill NFL-ready after a 2020 opt-out

Hill enters the draft with a unique recent past. He declared for the NFL draft in 2020 but then changed his mind and returned to Mississippi State where new head coach Mike Leach was installing a pass-heavy offense. Hill played for only three games. He set the school record with 15 catches versus Kentucky, and with 158 receiving yards against LSU. He then quit the team and declared for the NFL draft, having already proven his ability to rush the ball in 2019 and then catch in 2020.

He was the only SEC back that averaged more than 100 rushing yards in 2019 and was the only Mississippi State back to rush for more than 150 yards in four games in a season. Hill was the central focus of the offense when he took over as a junior in 2019.

Hill has to battle the after-effects of opting out since other NCAA backs that did play posted good years. He considered one of the best SEC backs after his fine 2019 campaign but his success isn’t as fresh as other backs in the draft. That may work to his disadvantage, but also could end up giving his new team a high-value pick later in the draft.

Height: 5-11
Weight:  210 pounds
40 time: 4.51 seconds

The ex-Bulldog did himself a great favor with those three games in 2020 since his role as a receiver wasn’t much in his first three seasons in a run-heavy attack. His versatility can appeal to a larger set of teams as they seek to fill position needs.

Kylin Hill Mississippi State stats (2017-20)

Year Games Runs Yards Avg. TD Catch Yards. TD Total Yards Total TDs
2017 13 78 393 5.0 2 4 38 0 431 2
2018 11 117 734 6.3 4 22 176 4 910 8
2019 13 242 1350 5.6 10 18 180 1 1530 11
2020 3 15 58 3.9 0 23 237 1 295 1

Pros

  • North-South rusher that always falls forward
  • Burst through the hole
  • Quick-footed inside runner
  • Solid pass protection picking up the blitz
  • Very capable receiver
  • Good body control and balance
  • Versatile back that can fit many needs

Cons

  • Lacks a top gear
  • Doesn’t make many defenders miss their tackle
  • Average in the open field, can get caught

Fantasy outlook

There’s no denying his impact at Mississippi State or his success in the SEC. Hill’s speed is adequate but he’s never been a breakaway threat. He’s expected to be a Day 3 selection but there’s always the chance that one team sees more in him and takes him in the third round.

He projects to be a part of a committee so his experience as a receiver looms large for his perceived value. It may have been odd to return for only three games as a senior, but his impressive showing as a receiver could net him work as a third-down back.  His best success has been as a north-south rusher but he’s only average in size and squeezing through an NFL-quality defensive line will prove a bigger challenge.

Hill has the talent to contribute on an NFL team and should work himself into a rotation eventually. In fantasy terms, he’s more of a draft-and-hold player in the hopes that he falls into an advantageous situation. He won’t be drafted to be a workhorse, but he should turn into a contributor.