The NASCAR Cup Series heads to the Phoenix Raceway Sunday for the NASCAR Cup Series Championship. The green flag is set to drop at approximately 3:05 p.m. ET. Below we analyze the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship odds and lines, with NASCAR picks and predictions.
Four drivers are alive for the NASCAR Cup Series overall championship, with Hendrick Motorsports’ Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott trying to hold off Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr.
2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship: What you need to know
- JGR’s Truex picked up the victory at the Instacart 500 back in mid-March in the first NCS stop in Phoenix.
- Hamlin has two career victories at Phoenix in 32 career Cup starts, leading all four contenders with a 10.78 Average-Finish Position (AFP).
- Elliott, last season’s Cup Series champ, has a won in 11 career starts at Phoenix, while posting an 11.18 AFP with 402 laps led.
- Larson has never won in 14 career Cup starts in Phoenix, but he has five top-five finishes and eight top-10 finishes with a solid 11.64 AFP.
- MTJ has the worst AFP of all four title contenders, posting a 15.39 AFP in 31 career Cup starts, but again, he won the first race at Phoenix this season (in March), and 13 of his 31 starts have resulted in finishes of 10th or better.
Who is going to win the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship?
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:20 a.m. ET.
KYLE LARSON (+190) would likely have the championship in his pocket, if we used the system from back in the day. Like it or not, the best driver for the season doesn’t always get rewarded in the end. Larson has a series-high nine checkered flags this season, and he has finished inside the top 5 in 19 of his 35 starts, while finishing in the top 10 or better in 25 outings. He has led 2,474 laps.
Larson was seventh in the Instacart 500 back in March at Phoenix after starting on the outside of Row 1. He’ll be right there when the dust clears.
DENNY HAMLIN (+450) was third in the Instacart 500 in March, and one only needs to look back to Nov. 10, 2019 for his last checkered flag at Phoenix. Of the four title contenders, he has the best AFP, and he has finished fifth or better at this track 15 times in his 32 starts.
CHASE ELLIOTT (+320) turned in a fifth-place run in Phoenix earlier this season, and the defending Cup Series champ won’t allow his crown to be taken by teammate Larson that easily. Elliott has led 402 laps in his 11 Phoenix starts, and four of his 11 starts have resulted in top-five finishes.
MARTIN TRUEX JR. (+500) has the longest odds of the four contenders to win Sunday’s race, but don’t count him out. While he has struggled more than the other three contenders at this track, again, he won back in March in the first stop at the Arizona flat track.
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Long-shots and position bets for the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship
If anybody is going to crash the party and win in Phoenix, Stewart-Haas Racing’s KEVIN HARVICK (+3000) is the one to watch. He leads all active drivers with an 8.84 AFP in Phoenix, while posting nine victories and 18 career top-five runs in 37 career starts.
If you don’t want to pick a winner, but want some action, HAMLIN TOP-5 FINISH (-200) isn’t terribly out of line, and is next to a sure thing. ELLIOTT TOP-5 FINISH (-230) is a little expensive for my liking, but he too should be right there in the end even if he doesn’t get the outright win.
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