Tag: 2021 free agents

How Budda Baker’s market-setting contract impacts Marcus Williams, Saints

The New Orleans Saints might not be able to afford Marcus Williams, a top 2021 free agent, after the Arizona Cardinals paid Budda Baker.

[jwplayer p8EALkhf-ThvAeFxT]

The New Orleans Saints have one of the more complex salary cap outlooks that you’ll find around the league. Their books are in order for the 2020 season, sure, but things get complicated once the clock strikes midnight and the NFL rolls over into its 2021 fiscal year, which will feature a depressed salary cap valued as low as $175 million.

It’s worth considering which Saints free agents might be left on the outside looking in next spring. Marshon Lattimore and Ryan Ramczyk won’t be going anywhere (the Saints triggered their fifth-year options as soon as NFL rules allowed), and the Saints have already gotten the ball rolling on an extension with Alvin Kamara. Demario Davis, the defensive captain and the team’s biggest hit in free agency since Drew Brees became New Orleans’ quarterback, feels like an easy pick as the next priority. With rookie draft pick Adam Trautman already making a strong first impression at training camp, Jared Cook’s succession plan appears clear.

It leaves Marcus Williams on an island. And with the Arizona Cardinals making Pro Bowl safety Budda Baker the highest-paid player at their position in NFL history, Williams is only going to see another boost to his value. He was already estimated to be worth $14 million on the open market before Baker’s record-setting contract extension, but now Williams might earn $15 million next offseason. And the Saints may not be able to afford him, especially if the Seattle Seahawks get the jump on them and raise the bar higher in a deal with Jamal Adams.

Kamara, Ramczyk, and Lattimore are each going to demand contracts that rank among the top tier at their respective positions. That’s going to take up a huge chunk of the salary cap, which, again, will be lower than anyone expected due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Saints G.M. Mickey Loomis and his team led by cap specialist Khai Hartley have made magic happen before, but they’ll have to use every trick in the book just to get the Saints under the cap. Adding too many new deals to the equation will be its own problem.

Whether Williams is worth a record-breaking contract will receive some skepticism from Saints fans, but that has to be dismissed right away. He’s one of the best single-high safeties in the NFL, and a legitimate ballhawk — he just started playing in 2017, but leads all Saints defenders in interceptions from 2010 to 2019. Last year, he was the only player on the team to intercept multiple passes (4). His highlights outnumber the low moments.

And for his part, Williams spent his offseason training to erase his weaknesses. He put on more muscle mass to help with his tackling, and spent more time studying game film to see what went wrong. Nick Underhill of NewOrleans.Football spoke with Williams’ personal trainer and position coach to detail that process, and the results have been encouraging early in training camp. Williams has set himself up for a big year in the final leg of his rookie contract.

The question has to be whether the Saints will be able to afford him. Williams played just as well as Baker, Eddie Jackson, Landon Collins, and the other safeties at the top of the salary rankings. But if they’re (rightfully) prioritizing long-term deals with Kamara, Lattimore, and Ramczyk, then the slice of the pie left for Williams probably won’t match what he can earn on the open market.

There’s a chance he’ll settle for a below-market deal to stay with a team that wants him, as Cameron Jordan has done throughout his career. But that sort of hometown discount is rare in the NFL, and it shouldn’t be expected that Williams will do it. It’s just as possible that the Saints will hammer out deals with Kamara and Davis, and issue the franchise tag to Williams for 2021. This far out from the 2021 deadline, it’s just too tough to say. The only certainty is that Williams will see his value go up the longer the Saints put off contract talks.

[vertical-gallery id=37025]

3 reasons why the Steelers will not re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster

The rookie contract of Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster expires in 2021.

A hot topic of debate during the Steelers offseason has been whether Pittsburgh will re-sign wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster before he hits free agency in March.

Typically, the club handles contract negotiations the season before the player hits free agency. While there are still a few weeks to get a deal done, it’s not likely to happen.

Apparently, there has been no discussion between the Steelers and JuJu’s camp about his future in Pittsburgh.

We need only to look to history for the answer as to why there have been crickets. Hines Ward and Antonio Brown are the only two guys the Steelers have signed to second contracts, and the chances of Smith-Schuster being a rare exception are slim.

Here are three reasons why the Steelers will not re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster:

Money

Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Football is, first and foremost, a business. And the Steelers have shown it’s their business to replace high-priced receivers with more affordable ones without risking production. Hines Ward and Antonio Brown are the only two receivers they’ve inked to second contracts in recent history.

If Smith-Schuster returns to pre-2019 form, he’ll price himself right out of Pittsburgh. Even if he doesn’t demand Brown-like money, the Steelers still won’t be able to afford him. As Steelers Wire recently reported, as it currently stands, the Steelers are $15 million over the projected $175 million 2021 salary cap. That figure doesn’t take into account any high priority free agents.

Pages: Page 1, Page 2, Page 3

Saints salary cap space update after the latest signings and opt-outs

With the NFL’s deadline for players to opt out of the 2020 season come and gone, the New Orleans Saints now know exactly who they’ll be working with in training camp. They’ve also made their first wave of roster cuts to bring their numbers down to …

[jwplayer mVv4mgFy-ThvAeFxT]

With the NFL’s deadline for players to opt out of the 2020 season come and gone, the New Orleans Saints now know exactly who they’ll be working with in training camp. They’ve also made their first wave of roster cuts to bring their numbers down to the NFL-mandated 80 contracts, and added a veteran free agent or two.

So where does that place them against the salary cap?

Per ESPN’s Field Yates, the Saints are now ranked 25th in official cap space at just over $7.8 million (to be exact: $7,821,902). That includes transactions like the signing of wide receiver Bennie Fowler at the veteran’s minimum, and the opt-outs of tight ends Cole Wick and Jason Vander Laan.

But they aren’t finished just yet, because their deal with linebacker Nigel Bradham hasn’t been finalized and filed with the league office. Still, that shouldn’t drastically shift their salary cap outlook.

What will be most interesting to track in the coming months is whether the Saints choose to hammer out long-term extensions with upcoming free agents. Mainstays including linebacker Demario Davis, running back Alvin Kamara, and free safety Marcus Williams are all entering the final years of their contracts, as are tight end Jared Cook and quarterback Jameis Winston.

The trouble arises when you consider that the 2021 salary cap is expected to nosedive from its current ceiling ($198.2 million). The NFL anticipates big losses in revenue this season due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but negotiations with the NFL Players Association mean the cap will be set no lower than $175 million next year. That runs against the assumption the Saints have been working with over the last decade, which has put their faith in an always-increasing cap.

So they may not be able to keep everyone. Team leaders like safety Vonn Bell and running back Mark Ingram have left in recent years, partly due to the Saints working a little too tight to the salary cap (and also due to dubious advice from their agents). Will someone from the list above end up joining them?

One move the Saints may consider is rolling over unspent cap space into the next fiscal year. That would certainly help them maneuver the 2021 salary cap, but it may be preferable to get the jump on these contract situations while there’s still time. Working with limited resources is tough enough, but fighting those limitations and a ticking clock is a tall order.

 

[vertical-gallery id=36627]

2021 free agency: Saints would be hit harder than most by depressed salary cap

Revenue losses due to the coronavirus pandemic are expected to hit the NFL salary cap hard, which is bad news for the New Orleans Saints.

[jwplayer cgsDcENq-ThvAeFxT]

While the New Orleans Saints are in good standing against the 2020 salary cap — right now, they’re estimated with just over $8.7 million to work with, before signing their four-deep rookie draft class — things aren’t nearly so bright for the NFL’s next fiscal year.

The COVID-19 novel coronavirus pandemic is likely going to result in lost revenue for the league; that belief is so certain that the NFL and the NFL Players Association are already negotiating how to best account for those losses, with league ownership hoping to cut each team’s player costs by as much as $40 million in cap space or other benefits for 2020.

That’s hardly an appealing option, but the alternative isn’t much better. Per a report from NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero, if both sides can’t reach a compromise then the 2021 salary cap could take a nosedive, falling as much as $50 to $70 million. That would be disastrous for expensive veteran players and first-time free agents around the league, to say the least.

And it couldn’t come at a worse time for the Saints. Much of their young, star talent is nearing the end of their below-market rookie contracts, with big names like Alvin Kamara and Marcus Williams on the road to free agency. Important veterans including Demario Davis, Jared Cook, and Sheldon Rankins will be due new deals soon, too. Jameis Winston signed with the team this summer explicitly focused on learning the ropes to set him up in a competition with Taysom Hill to start a year or two down the line.

On top of all of that, Drew Brees might be close to retiring soon. The Hall of Fame-bound quarterback signed a two-year deal this offseason that is structured so that he can retire after the 2020 season, leaving the Saints with a $22.65 million salary cap hit. If he returns to play for 2021, that number rises to more than $36 million, meaning the Saints would have to extend his contract again to spread out the damage.

That’s tough because, right now, New Orleans is projected to rank second-worst against the 2021 salary cap. Over The Cap projects a $215 million spending limit for next year (an increase of $16.8 million), which would put the Saints nearly $34 million in the red right from the jump. For now, the Saints have 52 contracts on the books for next season that total more than $249 million in cap expenses.

However, if the cap falls as is feared, the Saints would have to stretch their creative accounting to its limits. All the ghost years, restructures, and prorated signing bonuses in the world might not be enough to overcome a $121 million deficit. Vital members of the team would have to be cut just to get under the cap.

Hopefully the NFL can reach a compromise that won’t cripple the 2021 offseason; at the same time, the players union has to do what it can to protect its members against depressed wages. Until the exact economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic are known, however, it’s tough to say just what the future might look like for Saints football.

[vertical-gallery id=29257]

Derrick Henry’s huge Titans deal sets the floor, not the ceiling, for Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara stands to gain from Derrick Henry signing a $50 million contract extension with the Tennessee Titans.

[jwplayer IWBPJg8m-ThvAeFxT]

Don’t look now, but Alvin Kamara is one step closer to earning his big NFL payday. The Tennessee Titans agreed to terms with running back Derrick Henry on a four-year, $50 million contract extension this week, and that’s going to directly correlate to a pay raise for Kamara in the near future — but will the New Orleans Saints be the ones to get him to sign on the dotted line?

It’s a tough question to answer right now because we don’t know which version of Kamara the Saints will get in 2020. His first two years in the NFL were as strong as those put together by some Hall of Famers, but his injury-struck third season has cooled many fans on the prospect of tying Kamara to the team at a top-tier salary for the long haul.

However, Henry’s cash-in only raises expectations for what Kamara might earn next summer. While he hasn’t matched Henry’s raw numbers as a runner (averaging 53.5 rushing yards per game in his career, against Henry’s 61.8) Kamara does outpace Henry when total yards picked up from scrimmage are considered (99.5 yards from scrimmage versus Henry’s 71.1). Additionally, Henry has played in 17 more games than Kamara while scoring only four more touchdowns as a runner or receiver.

Rising tides lift all ships in the NFL, and the $12.5 million Henry earned on this extension will give Kamara some serious bargaining power. That annual salary now ranks fifth-best among all running backs, behind Christian McCaffrey ($16 million), Ezekiel Elliott ($15 million), Le’Veon Bell ($13.125 million), and David Johnson ($13 million). That’s company Kamara will want to join, and Henry’s new contract should be seen as the low end of what he might agree to. If Kamara turns in another All-Pro caliber season, he should end up ranking nearer to the top of the spectrum.

And if that’s the case, the Saints might not be the team to pay him. They’ll be hard-pressed as it is to retain star talent like Demario Davis, Marcus Williams, Jared Cook, and Sheldon Rankins in addition to Kamara, and the specter of a depressed or flattened salary cap doesn’t help matters.

Maybe the Saints could take a page out of the Titans’ playbook and use the franchise or transition tags to buy time so they can stagger out the highest-priority contract talks. But if their quiet summer has been any indication, it’ll be a while before they start making moves.

[lawrence-related id=35072,29256,32866]

[vertical-gallery id=35916]

The Pittsburgh Steelers are in a heap of trouble if the salary cap goes down

If 2020 team revenues take a nosedive, so could the 2021 salary cap which would spell trouble for the Steelers.

I would not want to be general manager Kevin Colbert right now.

To tag Bud Dupree, sign three free agents (Stefen Wisniewski, Derek Watt, Chris Wormley) and still be cap-compliant in 2020, the Steelers pushed $21 million of salary into the next season.

Pushing money from one year to the next is nothing new in the NFL and especially not for the Steelers. It’s part of the salary cap game to restructure contracts to be at or under the cap without players they need and want winding up casualties.

However, that money was pushed with the understanding that there would be a substantial cap increase in 2021.

Of course, no one knows the effect that the COVID-19 pandemic will have on the NFL and its salary cap just yet, but the potential implications paint an ugly picture.

The current salary cap is set at $198.2 million. Historically, the cap has increased by $10 million or more per season. Per Over The Cap, the projected salary cap for 2021 is an estimated $215 million. But that projection is contingent on the league operating as usual with a full 17-game schedule and stadiums at full capacity.

The salary cap for the following season is based on the income that the teams earn during a league year. While previous years’ salary caps have been limited to defined gross revenues (money earned from national television contracts, ticket sales, and NFL merchandise sales), the new collective bargaining agreement was expanded to include all revenues. All revenues incorporate ticket sales, luxury box suites and premium seating, local and national broadcasting royalties, concessions, parking, local advertising, stadium leasing, and merchandising.

On a recent episode of The Adam Schefter Podcast, Schefter broke it down like this:

“Now I want people to think about this going forward — because it is something that the NFL and the NFLPA soon is going to have to be thinking about — and that is if there are no fans in the stands this season that would equate essentially to about on average roughly $100 million less in revenue per team for each of the 32 NFL teams in the NFL. If we multiply that $100 million by the 32 we get $3.2 billion in lost revenue, and why is that a big deal? Because the salary cap is based off the total revenue that comes in…

“So if there is $3.2 billion in less revenue, which is a rough number… but well within the range that is expected and as other people pointed out there are other financial losses as well, we are looking, potentially, at the salary cap dropping in 2021 by $70 to $80 million.”

As Schefter speculates, if games are played without fans in the stands or only a percentage of fans, revenue will be significantly impacted, and the salary cap for 2021 could take a massive hit. An even worse scenario is if the season is canceled. I’m not going to pretend like I know how players’ 2020 salaries would be affected if no games are played and how that even would roll into 2021. But I do know that the Steelers are in a heap of trouble if the salary cap is reduced in 2021.

Let’s say that the cap drops by $80 million in 2021. That would put the salary cap at roughly $118 million. That’s still a ton of money, right? Currently, the Steelers total cap liabilities are at $187 million for next year.

Gulp.

And that’s without taking into account the money they will need to pay to any players they want to save from becoming free agents next year. Among the laundry list of players are unrestricted free agents JuJu Smith-Schuster, James Conner, Cam Heyward, Bud Dupree, and Mike Hilton.

I’m just glad I’m not in Colbert’s shoes.

[vertical-gallery id=468993]

[lawrence-related id=469095]

Projected contract extensions for big-time Saints 2021 free agents

The New Orleans Saints have the resources to get a jump on contract extensions with key 2021 free agents like Alvin Kamara and Demario Davis

The New Orleans Saints freed up a ton of salary cap space by releasing Larry Warford earlier this month, but so far they’ve only used it to pick up free agents on one-year deals, at near-veteran’s minimum salary.

Names like Margus Hunt, Ty Montgomery, Anthony Chickillo, and James Hurst may not move the needle, but their impact could be felt in training camp later this summer. Having players with their NFL experience rounding out your roster instead of a crowd of undrafted rookies speaks volumes about the quality of this year’s Saints depth chart.

But at some point New Orleans is going to dig deep into their pockets and start planning for the future. That’s what they did last year by getting a jump on looming free agents like Wil Lutz, Cameron Jordan, and Michael Thomas. The Saints correctly identified each of those players as critical pieces to the locker room and rewarded them with new deals well ahead of schedule.

Here are several big names the Saints should consider, with projected contract extensions. Because this new money will be flowing in on top of preexisting deals, the Saints will have the option to restructure current-year cap hits and create more spending-room as they go along. It’s a tactic they’ve used often before.

And with even more lucrative contracts on the way for Marshon Lattimore and Ryan Ramczyk (who each had their fifth-year options picked up as soon as the Saints were allowed to do so), getting these deals inked now lets the Saints know exactly what they have to work with in the future. It’s like ordering a drink before choosing your steak.

Pages: Page 1, Page 2, Page 3, Page 4

Taysom Hill’s new contract frees up the franchise tag for Alvin Kamara

Taysom Hill will not be a candidate for the franchise tag in 2021, but Saints RB Alvin Kamara might face that hurdle before free agency.

[jwplayer Vv1h2jbQ-ThvAeFxT]

The New Orleans Saints’ decision to sign Taysom Hill to a two-year contract extension impacts more than the backup quarterback himself. While it does guarantee Hill will be around in 2021 (likely as the starting quarterback), his new deal sends a ripple effect throughout the roster. One teammate who could feel an immediate reaction: running back Alvin Kamara.

Kamara headlines a star-studded list of Saints free agents in the 2021 offseason, including veterans like Demario Davis, Jared Cook, Larry Warford, and Sheldon Rankins. Kamara can be counted among a group of young talents ready to cash in on their first big NFL contracts, along with Marcus Williams. Contract extensions with depth players and projected starters such as Kiko Alonso, Alex Anzalone, Craig Robertson, and Justin Hardee are also going to be on the docket.

Kamara stands apart from the rest as a prime candidate for receiving the franchise tag. While the number will go up as the salary cap rises and new contracts are signed with star players around the league, the 2020 franchise tag for running backs was valued at a fully-guaranteed $10,278,000. The less-valuable transition tag was worth just $8,483,000, but teams rarely use it because they receive no compensation should the player leave on a new deal with another squad.

Would New Orleans have considered using the franchise tag on Hill? Maybe. That might have led to arbitration hearings in which Hill’s camp could argue about which position he should be considered for the tag’s purposes, whether at quarterback, tight end, or even receiver. He wears more hats than anyone else in the NFL, so that might have gotten dicey. And deciding between Hill or Kamara could have been one really difficult conversation. Now, though, the Saints won’t have to worry about it.

If the Saints have a difficult time hammering out a new deal with Kamara this offseason (or if they simply choose not to try), tagging him in 2021 would be something they consider. The Saints have used the franchise tag before in retaining playmakers like Drew Brees and Jimmy Graham, eventually working out long-term extensions with both of them. It’s possible they try that approach again with Kamara, if need be.

It won’t come to that, hopefully. But the rising cost of running back salaries and the uncertain longevity of the position (as well as the Saints’ hesitance to pay skills-position talent) means it might be the only way Kamara plays for the Saints after the 2020 season. New Orleans made a strong effort to re-sign pillars of the team like Cameron Jordan, Michael Thomas, and Wil Lutz last summer. Maybe they’ll make Kamara a similar priority this year.

[lawrence-related id=31758,30535,27960]

[vertical-gallery id=32793]

Four 2021 Saints free agents who need contract extensions this offseason

The New Orleans Saints must get ahead of the curve and work out new contract extensions for players like Alvin Kamara and Demario Davis.

[jwplayer YVkmmtJb-ThvAeFxT]

NFL free agency is just weeks away, and it’s time for the New Orleans Saints to get to work negotiating new deals with pending free agents. But their discussions aren’t limited to just the players whose contracts expire in March; they must also begin to look ahead to the 2021 offseason, getting ahead of the curve on growing markets while restructuring contracts to create more salary cap space. And some players, such as Marshon Lattimore and Ryan Ramczyk, have team options that must be triggered this summer (and they should be, without question).

Here are four 2021 Saints free agents who the Saints should consider signing to contract extensions sooner rather than later.

RB Alvin Kamara

The asking price for top-shelf running backs will only increase as new deals for Christian McCaffrey and Derrick Henry are handed out. Kamara will likely never be more affordable than he is right now, and the Saints can avoid a potential training camp holdout by signing him to an extension. Even when injured last year, he had the sixth-best yards per carry (4.7) among running backs who logged equal or greater total carries (171).

LB Demario Davis

Davis would be the best free agent signing in Saints history if not for Drew Brees. He’s an All-Pro talent on the field and a charismatic leader who takes charge both in the locker room and in his community. He’s everything you’d hope to add to your team when making this kind of investment. The Saints could lower his $9.9 million salary cap hit with a contract extension, retaining one of their best players for the rest of his career.

RG Larry Warford

Even if Warford may have taken a step back last season (Pro Football Focus rated his pass-blocking at 71.4, which is near the middle of the pack for guards), but he’s still a durable, positively-graded starter who’s played 91% or more of snaps in each of the last two years. Additionally, his 2020 salary cap hit is one of the highest on the team at $12.875 million, and the team could create a lot of breathing room by signing him to a new deal and converting much of his base salary into a signing bonus.

FS Marcus Williams

Williams is probably going to be the most controversial name on this list due to his high-profile gaffes, but he shouldn’t be. He was the best playmaker the Saints had in the secondary last year. He was the only Saints defender to intercept multiple passes (finishing the year with four). Depending on how contracts for talented safeties like Denver Broncos star Justin Simmons shake out, Williams could be in line for $15 million or more per year in 2021. The Saints need to get out in front of this development before they get priced out of a good player.

[vertical-gallery id=29257]