2021 Fantasy Football drafts – Syndication Server

2021 Fantasy Football Tips and Trends

Tips and Trends from 2021

It is never too early – or late – to prepare for your fantasy draft. This year still contends with COVID-19, but the NFL made it through 2020 without missing a game, so expect it to be a non-factor again. Every season has changes that impact fantasy football and a unique set of trends that can help make a roadmap to a success fantasy draft.

Tips for the season

Back up your running backs. Last season, the Top-24 fantasy backs only included four that played in all 16 games, and three of those were No. 2 on their own team. A full dozen missed at least two games, and that’s from the highest scorers in the position.
Running backs and wide receivers dominate the first eight rounds. The decision you must make in advance is when to take your first quarterback and tight end.
Unless your league allows starting two quarterbacks, there is usually no real benefit in burning any of your first four or five picks on the position. It looks good at the time, but you pay the price by delaying other positions that experience a steeper decline in value than quarterbacks.
Tight ends are the lowest scoring fantasy position and can wait until mid-draft. However, if your league awards reception points, the Top-3 tight ends can offer a significant benefit. Finding a difference-making tight end from later in the draft is almost impossible. Not so for all other positions.
Kickers and defenses are notoriously difficult to predict and taking them in the final rounds of the draft is very common. However, owning one of the elites from either position can offer a small advantage and moving up each a full round than normal doesn’t hurt. Do you really expect to use your seventh wideout? You realize he’s the first cut when you visit the waiver wire after Week 1.
Watch your bye weeks when you draft. This year there are six teams on their bye in Week 7 – Bills, Cowboys, Jaguars, Chargers, Vikings, and Steelers. The Colts, Dolphins, Patriots, and Eagles are off during Week 14 when some leagues and contests are starting their playoffs.

Reliable trends

While each fantasy league is unique, many trends are common in fantasy drafts. And that helps to formulate a rough plan of when to take different positions.

Quarterbacks – In leagues where you only start one, there is significant consistency in how they are drafted. Expect Patrick Mahomes to be a third-round pick. Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, and Lamar Jackson are taken, in that order, over the next two rounds. The rest of them end up going in the seventh to eleventh rounds with large variation from league to league. Rookie quarterbacks like Trey Lance, Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields have been rising on draft boards all summer.

Running Backs – The NFL may be a “passing league,” but fantasy drafts don’t care. Running backs can take up eight or even ten of the first twelve picks. About 20 are gone before the fourth round, where player risk starts to ramp up, and the likely reward has a steeper decline. The safest play is to own two running backs after your first three picks. Most will follow that plan. There are still plenty of rushers with upside to exceed expectations through the eighth round, but you need to be good or lucky to land the right ones. Rookie running backs always spawn optimism, and Najee Harris, Javonte Williams, Travis Etienne, Trey Sermon, and Michael Carter offer the spicy tang of “you never really know.” And that drives up their draft stock, so don’t wait if you want one.

Drafters have downgraded last year’s rookies other than Jonathan Taylor. Considering there was no preseason and plenty of team injuries, players like Clyde Edwards-Helaire, D’Andre Swift, and J.K. Dobbins merit a mulligan and are better values. Cam Akers has sadly already proven why drafting the backups for your top backs is prudent.

Wide Receivers – Thanks to the running back frenzy in the early rounds, there is great value in the position that usually takes three full rounds to see the Top-12 be selected. The first dozen running backs rarely last to the middle of the second round. You should gather at least two over the first six rounds, and there is tremendous value early on if you are good enough to wait on running backs. Teams that draft near the end of the first round often scoops up two elite wideouts to start and then mine for running backs for the next few rounds.

The most generic – and safest – plan is to end up with two running backs and two wideouts by your fourth pick. In the fourth round, you can still access Robert Woods, Chris Godwin, Cooper Kupp, Julio Jones and the like. While eight or more rookie receivers end up drafted, the expectation is that they won’t offer as much as in other years. Ja’Marr Chase usually leads the pack in the sixth round, then Jaylen Waddle and Devonta Smith show up around the ninth or tenth round as fantasy backups. All others are just deep roster fodder.

Tight Ends – Travis Kelce is a first-round pick after dominating the NFL for four seasons in a position that offers so few difference-makers. There are only around three tight ends that offer an advantage each season and that means that Darren Waller goes in the second round and George Kittle lands in the late third or early fourth after his injurious season in 2020. That’s not to say the rest have no fantasy value, but the likelihood that they will compete with your other starters as contributors becomes much lower.

Expect that T.J. Hockenson, Mark Andrews and the rookie Kyle Pitts are gone by the sixth round after rosters have filled up on running backs and receivers and are looking for value in tight end. If you miss out on those, wait until the ninth round where you can grab Dallas Goedert, Noah Fant, Robert Tonyan, or Thomas Logan.

First 3 Picks: 10-team league

Your first three picks define your fantasy team.

The first three picks are going to define your team and set-up the rest of your draft. The optimal team is built by understanding the nuances of a scoring system and how it fits into your league rules.

A 10-team league means positional quality lasts longer. Everyone has a “good” team. You don’t need depth, you need difference-makers. Depth is less important and owning elite players are even more critical.

To follow are sample three-round drafts for 10-team fantasy football leagues. They use either standard performance scoring, performance plus a point per reception, or “2QB/Super Flex” leagues where you can start two of any position. Those three formats cover almost all leagues.

The names are less important than the positions because each draft slot has its own unique situation. Just as important are your future picks and what you need after three rounds. Rankings can change daily so these may not exactly match rankings.

Performance scoring league

Pick	Round 1	Pick	Round 2 (reverse)	Pick	Round 3
1.01	RB Christian McCaffrey	2.10	QB Patrick Mahomes	3.01	WR Justin Jefferson
1.02	RB Dalvin Cook	2.09	RB Saquon Barkley	3.02	WR DK Metcalf
1.03	RB Derrick Henry	2.08	WR Calvin Ridley	3.03	RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire
1.04	RB Alvin Kamara	2.07	RB Aaron Jones	3.04	RB Josh Jacobs
1.05	RB Nick Chubb	2.06	RB Chris Carson	3.05	QB Josh Allen
1.06	RB Jonathan Taylor	2.05	WR Davante Adams	3.06	RB J.K. Dobbins
1.07	RB Ezekiel Elliott	2.04	RB David Montgomery	3.07	WR DeAndre Hopkins
1.08	TE Travis Kelce	2.03	RB Antonio Gibson	3.08	RB D’Andre Swift
1.09	RB Joe Mixon	2.02	WR Tyreek Hill	3.09	TE Darren Waller
1.10	WR Stefon Diggs	2.01	RB Najee Harris	3.10	QB Kyler Murray

Performance scoring without reception points means that running backs are a premium and quarterbacks are a bit more valuable as well. Wide receivers and tight ends are devalued but are still usually four starters in a fantasy football league. Almost all teams will look to get two running backs in their first three picks and it’s hard to argue against the logic.

Team 1: RB Christian McCaffrey, QB Patrick Mahomes, WR Justin Jefferson

The first team started with a standard Christian McCaffrey and then used the next two picks to snap up the best quarterback and a Top-5 wideout. Certainly a star-filled roster so far, and owning McCaffrey makes delaying running backs feel better. Next up – that all said, has to look at a running back in the next two picks and maybe two of the next four. But a fast start in a smaller league size.

Team 2: RB Dalvin Cook, RB Saquon Barkley, WR DK Metcalf

Start with Dalvin Cook was solid, then opted to control the running back at RB2 of Saquon Barkley not knowing what Team 1 would take. DK Metcalf at WR1 allowed a balanced start. Next Up – the Barkley owner needs to shore up his backfield in case he is slow to start. But the reality is that even if he is eased back into a heavy load, there is never a time that he should be benched if the Giants are starting him. So a running back next is not as big of a need as it may seem. Balanced start means can go anywhere.

Team 3: RB Derrick Henry, WR Calvin Ridley, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Derrick Henry offers even more in this scoring format that it affords the luxury of taking a wideout in the second round (Top-4), and then went back to the well for his RB2 in the third round. Strong enough start and owns two difference-makers so far. Next up – could consider a quarterback soon for some firepower there. Ridley anchors the wideouts that can wait a few rounds while quarterback and a third running back are valuable options.

Team 4: RB Alvin Kamara, RB Aaron Jones, RB Josh Jacobs

Team went for three straight running backs – it always happens in this format and it can be effective with the right players. It netted the No. 4, No. 13, and the No. 16 running backs. And in this scoring format with smaller rosters, you can still access relatively highly ranked players in other positions. Next up – can go anywhere. Next three picks could be quarterback, tight end, wideout, whatever. Probably should not wait too long on wideout since high-quality players drain quickly even in this format.

Team 5: RB Nick Chubb, RB Chris Carson, QB Josh Allen

Nick Chubb is a beast without reception points an issue and opting to add Chris Carson as the No. 12 running back selected means a very solid backfield core. Love adding the No. 2 quarterback in the third round. No reception points? Starting RB-RB-QB is hard to fault in a ten-team league regardless of the draft slot. Next up – should consider wideouts in two of the next three picks to avoid a liability. Could even think about tight end though the true difference-makers would already be gone.

Team 6: RB Jonathan Taylor, WR Davante Adams, RB J.K. Dobbins

Still started with a running back, but then went with the No. 3 wideout in Davante Adams for a spark at that position. Safe play going with J.K. Dobbins in the third and he offers some upside without any penalty for his lack of receptions in this format. Next Up – balanced start means can go anywhere. Next three picks should include another wideout, running back, and at least consider a quarterback or tight end if the quality is still high.

Team 7: RB Ezekiel Elliott, RB David Montgomery, WR DeAndre Hopkins

The smaller size of the league makes this more workable. Ezekiel Elliott is the seventh-straight running back, and that seems excessive, but Team 7 also knows that the next three teams are going to mine running backs, and there is a ton of talent in non-running back positions in the second round. Opted for David Montgomery instead of a different position, but hard to argue with the backfield. Went with DeAndre Hopkins for WR1 in the third to lock down a Top-8 wideout. Next up – can be anything but needs to weigh the fourth pick heavily because the fifth will see all the top players from all the positions already gone. Quarterback like Lamar Jackson or Dak Prescott could be difference-makers.

Team 8: TE Travis Kelce, RB Antonio Gibson, RB D’Andre Swift

Travis Kelce could go anywhere in the first round as the only tight end with such a high reward-to-risk ratio. And following the run on running backs seems counterproductive with Kelce on the board. But taking a tight end with the first pick led Team 8 to grabbing running backs for the next two rounds. Next up – wideouts need to be on tap in two of the next three or four rounds. Kelce is a difference-maker in this format, but this plan (which is very common when Kelce is involved) could end up with him as the only difference-maker.

Team 9: RB Joe Mixon, WR Tyreek Hill, TE Darren Waller

Opted to start with running back even though Joe Mixon was the eighth back taken in the first round of a 10-team league. The reasoning is that Team 9 knows he wants a running back in the first two picks or they’ll have a hole in a very important position in a non-reception point league. But almost all non-running backs are on the board and only one team go next. Still added Tyreek Hill and then went with Darren Waller at tight end in the third. That’s harder to do in this format, but he is a difference-maker and the team owner picks again in just two more picks. Next up – almost has to be a running back in the fourth. The fifth and sixth picks can look at best available since the core of the starters are taken aside from quarterback.

Team 10: WR Stefon Diggs, RB Najee Harris, QB Kyler Murray

Final pick in the first round comes away with a very nice start. First swing picks netted the best wideout and then high-upside running back with Najee Harris. Had he not taken Harris, his RB1 would have been the No. 18 back for a sure disadvantage. His second wrap-around pair of picks starts with Kyler Murray at quarterback. A top quarterback and wideout offer difference makers and if Harris meets expectations, this is a hot start. Next up – the next pick should consider running back (Mike Davis, Kareem Hunt, Myles Gaskin) that should be good enough to prevent a liability. The third swing at rounds 5 and 6 can consider best available but likely wideout and running back.

Reception-point league

Pick	Round 1	Pick	Round 2 (reverse)	Pick	Round 3
1.01	RB Christian McCaffrey	2.10	TE Darren Waller	3.01	WR DK Metcalf
1.02	RB Alvin Kamara	2.09	RB Saquon Barkley	3.02	QB Patrick Mahomes
1.03	RB Dalvin Cook	2.08	WR Justin Jefferson	3.03	RB Antonio Gibson
1.04	RB Jonathan Taylor	2.07	RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire	3.04	WR Keenan Allen
1.05	RB Ezekiel Elliott	2.06	WR Calvin Ridley	3.05	RB David Montgomery
1.06	RB Derrick Henry	2.05	RB Najee Harris	3.06	WR Terry McLaurin
1.07	TE Travis Kelce	2.04	RB Aaron Jones	3.07	RB Austin Ekeler
1.08	WR Stefon Diggs	2.03	WR DeAndre Hopkins	3.08	RB D’Andre Swift
1.09	WR Davante Adams	2.02	RB Joe Mixon	3.09	TE George Kittle
1.10	RB Nick Chubb	2.01	WR Tyreek Hill	3.10	WR CeeDee Lamb

This style of scoring boosts the value of wide receivers and elite tight ends but devalues quarterbacks relative to other positions. Running backs are going to be popular in any scoring scenario but the added reception point means the position becomes deeper with third-down backs able to offer “start-able” fantasy value.

With a reception point and only ten teams, your roster should look very strong after three picks. All positions are deep in this format.

Team 1: RB Christian McCaffrey, TE Darren Waller, WR DK Metcalf

Started with Christian McCaffrey, then opted for the No. 2 tight end (Darren Waller) and No. 7 wideout in DK Metcalf. Opened with a balanced approach but will find a riskier (or weaker) RB2 when picking at the end of the fourth round. Next up – has to pick up a running back at their next turn in rounds four and five. Also should consider wideout at that turn.

Team 2: RB Alvin Kamara, RB Saquon Barkley, QB Patrick Mahomes

Alvin Kamara was a great start and then opted to take the No. 12 running back for a solid and safe beginning. Went with Patrick Mahomes for the top dog at the highest scoring position. First three picks addressed the reality of the rapid decline in running back value and the best bet for the highest-scoring player in the fantasy league. Next up – starting RB-RB-QB felt good but now all wideouts and tight ends are not going to be difference-makers and could be a liability. This plan means using most of the next picks on wideouts and adding another running back when the value merits delaying the wideouts.

Team 3: RB Dalvin Cook, WR Justin Jefferson, RB Antonio Gibson

Standard start in this format with a Top-3 running back, then a Top-6 wideout. Followed with a return to running backs to feel safe about the backfield. Decent plan no matter where it is used. Next up – can go anywhere for best available. Top tight ends will be hard to reach, so mostly switching up running back and wideout while deciding where the quarterback makes sense.

Team 4: RB Jonathan Taylor, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, WR Keenan Allen

In a reception-points league, this is the safest plan even though it doesn’t so far produce any real difference makers and could end up with an average team. In the end, it is always about picking the best players and avoiding the busts. This is the most risk-adverse plan. Next up – can go anywhere with a balanced start. Would have to overpay for any difference-making tight ends, so wideouts need to be two of the next three or four picks. Can wait a little on RB3, but those using this plan rarely do.

Team 5: RB Ezekiel Elliott, WR Calvin Ridley, RB David Montgomery

This is just Team No. 3 with a better wideout and a slightly worse running back. In a reception-points league, this is safe and yet yields slightly better results than starting RB-RB-WR. Next up – balanced team probably better off with taking a wideout next before the value starts to decline more rapidly. Solid enough start but needs to keep an eye out for players that are falling in the draft or take some later chances to find difference-makers.

Team 6: RB Derrick Henry, RB Najee Harris, WR Terry McLaurin

The middle of a 10-team league can lead to this sort of plan that doesn’t quite work as well as it seems it will. This year, one of the middle teams is likely to go for Travis Kelce to shake up the run on running backs. Not doing so led to this team with the No. 6 running back (meaning lesser half of the RB1’s in a ten team league), and then the No. 10 running back. Next up – more wideouts and a quarterback should take up the next three rounds.

Team 7: TE Travis Kelce, RB Aaron Jones, RB Austin Ekeler

Finally, Kelce is taken. He goes between the No. 4 and No. 10 picks, it just depends on the league. With reception points, he’s a major difference-maker but still delays all other positions. That led to this plan that doubles down on running backs to prevent any liability in the backfield. Next up – a couple of wideouts are in order and likely two in the next three picks. Could swerve and get a top quarterback in the fourth or fifth but then the wideouts would start to suffer.

Team 8: WR Stefon Diggs, WR DeAndre Hopkins, RB D’Andre Swift

This is a great plan here nearing the end of the first round. Ignoring wideouts makes no sense in the first round and accessed the top receiver. Starting out with two of the top four wide receivers is a huge advantage at the position and there is none to be had with running backs already drained. D’Andre Swift was a need pick in the third but overall this is an exciting to start to the draft. Next up – could accept that running backs are not going to be a strength and opt for quarterback and tight end, then scramble for whatever running back crumbs are left but would have fireworks at all position besides running back. It works better in the ten-team league where running backs last a bit longer.

Team 9: WR Davante Adams, RB Joe Mixon, TE George Kittle

Starting with wideout makes sense since it is better to control the No. 2 wideout than the No. 7 running back. After Davante Adams and Joe Mixon, went for George Kittle who should be the No. 3 tight end and a difference maker as well. It is usually a three-man race for elite tight ends, and Kittle brings some risk but considerable upside. Next up – has to consider running backs one or twice in the next three rounds but otherwise free to take best available regardless of position.

Team 10: RB Nick Chubb, WR Tyreek Hill, WR CeeDee Lamb

This is normally the team that starts WR-WR, but this plan went for RB1 with Nick Chubb before doubling on wideouts with Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb. And it works better in this size league because the running back is slightly better than in a 12-team league, and the wideout in the third round is still the No. 10 wide receiver taken, right before a natural tier-break. Next up – the next pick in the draft belongs to Team 10 who could use that for Josh Allen at quarterback for an advantage at the highest scoring position. That takes some guts though, since anything other than a running back at the 4.01 pick means the RB1 would be no better than the No. 18 to No. 20 taken.

QB-heavy league

Pick	Round 1	Pick	Round 2 (reverse)	Pick	Round 3
1.01	RB Christian McCaffrey	2.10	QB Russell Wilson	3.01	RB Aaron Jones
1.02	RB Alvin Kamara	2.09	TE Darren Waller	3.02	WR Calvin Ridley
1.03	QB Patrick Mahomes	2.08	RB Joe Mixon	3.03	RB Najee Harris
1.04	RB Dalvin Cook	2.07	WR DeAndre Hopkins	3.04	WR Justin Jefferson
1.05	RB Jonathan Taylor	2.06	QB Dak Prescott	3.05	WR DK Metcalf
1.06	QB Josh Allen	2.05	WR Tyreek Hill	3.06	RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire
1.07	RB Ezekiel Elliott	2.04	WR Davante Adams	3.07	QB Aaron Rodgers
1.08	TE Travis Kelce	2.03	QB Lamar Jackson	3.08	RB Saquon Barkley
1.09	WR Stefon Diggs	2.02	RB Nick Chubb	3.09	RB Antonio Gibson
1.10	QB Kyler Murray	2.01	RB Derrick Henry	3.10	TE George Kittle

This sort of league will seed quarterbacks in varying measures depending on how and why quarterbacks are so valuable. The most common is the ability to start two quarterbacks which change drafts significantly.

It will extend the quality of running backs and wideouts deeper into the draft since quarterbacks will go far earlier than the mid-draft than is common in other sorts of leagues. This run-through assumes two quarterbacks and that well over half of the starters are taken by the third round.

Viewing the previous year’s results are best for this sort of starting rule because quarterbacks can go slower – or much faster – than what this draft assumes. Keep up with the other picks in the league to make sure you don’t get stuck at the end of a run on quarterbacks.

In a smaller 10-team league with additional valuable players from the quarterback boost, almost every fantasy team is going to look great so taking elite players is paramount to winning – get starters before worrying about depth.

Team 1: RB Christian McCaffrey, QB Russell Wilson, RB Aaron Jones

After starting with Christian McCaffrey, was able to reach Russell Wilson as the No. 6 quarterback and then played it safer going RB1 with Aaron Jones. In this format, a Top-10 running back can reach the start of the third round. While not taking advantage as much of the reception point aspect, this plan is a solid one in this format regardless of draft slot. Next up – the next two picks should at least consider wideout. Elite tight ends are gone, and there will be a run on the position already started by the 4.12 pick.

Team 2: RB Alvin Kamara, TE Darren Waller, WR Calvin Ridley

Opened with Alvin Kamara and then opted for the No. 2 tight end for an advantage in a position that nosedives in value after two or three are gone. Was able to take Calvin Ridley as the No. 5 wideout in the third round. Balanced and strong start. Next up – the tight ends are already sewn up. Can go anywhere but more likely to weigh the RB2 and then the quarterback next.

Team 3: QB Patrick Mahomes, RB Joe Mixon, RB Najee Harris

Why not? Patrick Mahomes is scraped off the heap with the 1.03 pick as the top quarterback in a league where elite players make a tremendous difference. Added two straight running backs but still reached the No. 8 and No. 10 players for a solid backfield. Splashy picks like a quarterback at the 1.03 usually prompt team owners to go a little more conservative for the next few picks. Next up – difference making tight ends are gone, but only seven wideouts were taken in the first three rounds. Should strongly consider two or even three in a row.

Team 4: RB Dalvin Cook, WR DeAndre Hopkins, WR Justin Jefferson

After getting Dalvin Cook in the first round, went to double up on wideouts. The pick before him (2.06) tabbed Dak Prescott as the No. 5 quarterback so there was less advantage in the position since it hits a lower tier. DeAndre Hopkins and Justin Jefferson provide him two of the Top-6 wideouts for a strong start. Next up – The double wideouts means team can ignore the position for several rounds as the other core starters are secured. Should consider RB2 and two quarterbacks over the next four picks.

Team 5: RB Jonathan Taylor, QB Dak Prescott, WR DK Metcalf

Strong opening for a middle pick drafter. Opted for the No. 4 running back and then still reached Dak Prescott in the second. Landed DK Metcalf as WR1 in the third. All top tier players and yet none of the Top-3 in their position. Next up – can go anywhere and will include running back in the next few picks to be sure. But a run on wideouts is coming, so that is more prudent in the fourth and switch back to running back for the fifth.

Team 6: QB Josh Allen, WR Tyreek Hill, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Josh Allen is usually more of a third round pick in the other formats, but he makes sense in the first round in a QB-heavy league. Was still able to grab Tyreek Hill in the second for a Top-3 wideout and then brought on Clyde Edwards-Helaire as a need pick from the declining stock of running backs. Next up – Balanced start allows freedom to take best available. Mixing in running backs and wideouts for the next three rounds is most prudent.

Team 7: RB Ezekiel Elliott, WR Davante Adams, QB Aaron Rodgers

Ezekiel Elliott is a Top-5 running back, but doesn’t offer enough bang for the buck in this format as it is unlikely the next three teams are all going to load up on running backs. Was able to reach Davante Adams as the No. 2 wideout and then opted for Aaron Rodgers since the risk/reward ratio declines for the position. The Rodgers pick is interesting in that of the next three teams, two already took a quarterback and would be less likely to double down on the position in the third or fourth rounds before it wraps back Next up – Running backs and wideouts over the next several round but seeding an earlier second quarterback would make up ground from starting the No. 7 as their QB1.

Team 8: TE Travis Kelce, QB Lamar Jackson, RB Saquon Barkley

This plan is a little scary. But if Saquon Barkley returns to form, this plan could be highly effective. Started with Travis Kelce as the ultimate difference-maker of the last four years. Was still able to take Lamar Jackson even though that delayed both running backs and wide receivers. Went with the risky but upside pick of Barkley who could have been Antonio Gibson or David Montgomery. The smaller the league, the more using a first round pick on Kelsey doesn’t hurt you. Next up – next pick is only four turns away and could still reach Allen Robinson, A.J. Brown, Keenan Allen, and the like. That makes this plan start with a great core (assuming Barkley is returns to form, at least eventually). Waiting until the fifth round for that RB2 could still access a starting running back, though obviously a lower tier player.

Team 9: WR Stefon Diggs, RB Nick Chubb, RB Antonio Gibson

The ninth team finally opts for the best wideout on the board, then doubles down on running backs which feels very safe and netted the No. 7 and No. 13 running backs for a solid but unspectacular backfield. At least this plan gives the team freedom with his remaining picks. Next up – quarterback should be on tap in the fourth which is only three picks away. It won’t be an elite fantasy quarterback but still can draw from either Justin Herbert or Tom Brady. Otherwise, the 5.9 pick is 15 selections away and that most likely dips deeply enough into quarterbacks that the team will have one of the weakest QB1’s. Wideouts are a need as well, but can wait a bit for that quarterback and even another running back if the value is there.

Team 10: QB Kyler Murray, RB Derrick Henry, TE George Kittle

The smaller league size and QB-heavy format is kinder to the final team in the first round than usual. Top-3 quarterback with Kyler Murray paired with Derrick Henry at the turn, then in the third added George Kittle for another Top-3 player. Granted – Kittle carries risk after last year, but this is a formidable start. Next up – has to consider wideouts in two of the next three picks while wedging in the best value in running backs.

First 3 Picks: 12-team league

Your first three picks define your fantasy team.

Your first three picks define your fantasy football team. Each pick is critical because the player pool is ever-shrinking, and you have to select a mixture of available players to produce an optimal team. And those initial rounds determine what you’ll do in the later rounds of the draft. Get them wrong and you may not be able to recover.

To follow are sample three-round drafts for 12-team fantasy football leagues. They use either standard performance scoring, performance plus a point per reception, or “2QB/Super Flex” leagues where you can start two of any position. Those three formats cover virtually all leagues.

Performance scoring league

	Round 1		Round 2 (reverse)		Round 3
1.01	RB Christian McCaffrey	2.12	RB Josh Jacobs	3.01	WR DeAndre Hopkins
1.02	RB Dalvin Cook	2.11	QB Patrick Mahomes	3.02	RB J.K. Dobbins
1.03	RB Derrick Henry	2.10	WR DK Metcalf	3.03	RB D’Andre Swift
1.04	RB Alvin Kamara	2.09	RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire	3.04	QB Josh Allen
1.05	RB Nick Chubb	2.08	WR Justin Jefferson	3.05	WR CeeDee Lamb
1.06	RB Jonathan Taylor	2.07	RB Saquon Barkley	3.06	WR A.J. Brown
1.07	RB Ezekiel Elliott	2.06	WR Calvin Ridley	3.07	TE Darren Waller
1.08	TE Travis Kelce	2.05	RB Aaron Jones	3.08	RB Mike Davis
1.09	RB Joe Mixon	2.04	RB Chris Carson	3.09	WR Keenan Allen
1.10	WR Stefon Diggs	2.03	RB David Montgomery	3.10	RB Kareem Hunt
1.11	RB Najee Harris	2.02	WR Davante Adams	3.11	RB Myles Gaskin
1.12	WR Tyreek Hill	2.01	RB Antonio Gibson	3.12	QB Kyler Murray

Performance scoring without reception points means that running backs are a premium and quarterbacks are a bit more valuable. Wide receivers and tight ends are devalued but are still usually four starters in a fantasy football league. Almost all teams will look to get two running backs in their first three picks and it’s hard to argue against the logic because the supply is very low by round four.

Team 1: RB Christian McCaffrey, RB Josh Jacobs, WR DeAndre Hopkins

Starting with the top player in the draft usually means having more freedom with the next picks since you already have an advantage and are not locked into a need pick. In this case, team opted to pair McCaffrey with the best available rusher and receiver for a solid and safe start. Next up – is likely a quarterback, but the base has been set and wideouts can wait in this format.

Team 2: RB Dalvin Cook, QB Patrick Mahomes, RB J.K. Dobbins

This plan better addresses the realities of player value with no reception points. Obvious pick with Cook turned into scooping the top quarterback in Patrick Mahomes. Grabbed RB2 in the third round for a very effective start. Quarterbacks are more valuable in this format, so reaching the top player at the end of the second round makes sense. Next up – consider a wideout before the position becomes a liability.

Team 3: RB Derrick Henry, WR DK Metcalf, RB D’Andre Swift

Started with Derrick Henry who is a beast in this scoring format, then opted for DK Metcalf in the second. That let him control which wideout he took as the sixth overall and then address RB2 with upside pick of J.K. Dobbins. Next up – probably looking at quarterback or another running back.

Team 4: RB Alvin Kamara, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, QB Josh Allen

Nice start in this scoring format that needed a top running back, high upside with Clyde Edwards-Helaire and then opted for the No. 2 quarterback in Josh Allen. Solid start to be sure. Next up – look at wideouts or a third running back if one has fallen in the draft.

Team 5: RB Nick Chubb, WR Justin Jefferson, WR CeeDee Lamb

While this plan doesn’t appear to honor the scoring format as much, it really sort of does. Solid start at running back was joined by two wideouts even without reception points. The plus here is that while wideouts do not score as much in this format, they still matter and the team now owns two Top-10 players in that position. That is an advantage in a position he can now leave alone for several rounds while searching for value picks. Up next – should consider two running backs and a quarterback in the next three rounds.

Team 6: RB Jonathan Taylor, RB Saquon Barkley, WR A.J. Brown

Standard “middle of the draft” path that is safe. Start with two backs that mean the position may be a strength and should not be a liability. Then opting for a difference-making wide receiver before that quality wanes. This is very safe in this format. Next up – Can go anywhere, should consider running back in the fourth before value evaporates but can consider quarterbacks along the way as well.

Team 7: RB Ezekiel Elliott, WR Calvin Ridley, TE Darren Waller

Continued the run on running backs and still ended up with Ezekiel Elliott. Then they reached a Top-5 wide receiver in Calvin Ridley and the No. 2 tight end with Darren Waller. No reception points depress their contributions, but they still represent an advantage in points against other fantasy teams. Next up – have to consider running backs the next two rounds unless someone else falls. Quarterback is down the road in this one. Has to catch up with running backs before the position is a liability which is more damaging in this scoring format.

Team 8: TE Travis Kelce, RB Aaron Jones, RB Mike Davis

Finally, a team doesn’t take a running back. Travis Kelce has been an advantage for the last four years and a season-winner with reception points. Even in this format, he represents a major advantage in a position that nearly doesn’t matter without reception points. Taking running backs the next two picks was almost a need and not a choice. Next up – wideouts and a quarterback need to happen in the next rounds, but grabbing an RB3 always makes sense if a good value is there in the next couple of rounds.

Team 9: RB Joe Mixon, RB Chris Carson, WR Keenan Allen

Always a tough spot. Starting with two running backs certainly feels safe. And the three teams behind could have potentially sucked up six backs before their second pick. This is a draft slot that can be a challenge and this team certainly played it safe. But there is no real advantage in any of the players other than minor having Chris Carson as an RB2. Next up – has to start looking for difference-makers. Should consider quarterback next and maybe even think about an earlier tight end because so far the plan is building an average team.

Team 10: WR Stefon Diggs, RB David Montgomery, RB Kareem Hunt

With the running backs risk going up and value in decline, opted for the top wideout to start, and then went with running backs for the next two to keep up with that run. This is more normal for a reception points league, but owning the best wideout is still an advantage in this scoring format. Next up – should consider running back again over the next pick or two since that all-important position is only average so far. Quarterback and another wideout can be weighed over the next four rounds as well.

Team 11: RB Najee Harris, WR Davante Adams, RB Myles Gaskin

The rookie Harris dips into the first round with no reception points and then the team selected Davante Adams as a Top-3 wideout with plenty of touchdowns. By the time the third round rolled back around, went with Myles Gaskin as RB2 with his fingers crossed. Next up – picks in only two more spots and can consider another running back like Austin Ekeler or Chase Edmonds. But a quarterback and a second wideout still offer very good values. Adding a Lamar Jackson or Dak Prescott in the fourth may force a running back in the fifth, but it is a nice start to be sure.

Team 12: WR Tyreek Hill, RB Antonio Gibson, QB Kyler Murray

Drafting at the end of the round in any format always forces some outside-of-the-box thinking, and this plan works about as well as any other this deeply in the draft in this format. Tyreek Hill is always an advantage at wideout, then nabbed Antonio Gibson at RB1 to prevent a disadvantage. Then taking Kyler Murray makes for a very nice start. That’s a Top-3 wideout, a running back, and a Top-3 quarterback. Next up – must look at running back and maybe again in the fifth round as well. Great start if running backs can cobble together at least average production.

Reception-point league

	Round 1		Round 2 (reverse)		Round 3
1.01	RB Christian McCaffrey	2.12	QB Patrick Mahomes	3.01	TE Darren Waller
1.02	RB Alvin Kamara	2.11	WR DK Metcalf	3.02	RB D’Andre Swift
1.03	RB Dalvin Cook	2.10	RB Austin Ekeler	3.03	WR Keenan Allen
1.04	RB Jonathan Taylor	2.09	RB David Montgomery	3.04	WR Terry McLaurin
1.05	RB Ezekiel Elliott	2.08	WR Justin Jefferson	3.05	RB Chris Carson
1.06	RB Derrick Henry	2.07	WR Calvin Ridley	3.06	TE George Kittle
1.07	TE Travis Kelce	2.06	RB Antonio Gibson	3.07	RB J.K. Dobbins
1.08	RB Nick Chubb	2.05	RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire	3.08	WR CeeDee Lamb
1.09	WR Stefon Diggs	2.04	RB Najee Harris	3.09	WR Allen Robinson II
1.10	WR Davante Adams	2.03	RB Aaron Jones	3.10	WR Robert Woods
1.11	WR Tyreek Hill	2.02	WR DeAndre Hopkins	3.11	RB Mike Davis
1.12	RB Joe Mixon	2.01	RB Saquon Barkley	3.12	WR A.J. Brown

This scoring style boosts the value of wide receivers and elite tight ends but devalues quarterbacks a bit. Running backs are popular in any scoring scenario, but the added reception point means the position becomes deeper with third-down backs able to offer “start-able” fantasy value.

Team 1: RB Christian McCaffrey, QB Patrick Mahomes, TE Darren Waller

This is why everyone hates the first pick. And this absolutely can happen. Starts with the best running back, then the best quarterback, then the No. 2 tight end. There’s tons of advantage there and the position that will be a potential weakness is wideout that is the deepest and easiest to find values and free agents. Next up – the 4.12 is 22 spots away, so not a lot left but has to consider running back and maybe the next two picks if there is a flex.

Team 2: RB Alvin Kamara, WR DK Metcalf, RB D’Andre Swift

Solid start that honors the scoring formant and in this case, with either rock-solid choices or an upside player. Starting RB-WR-RB is a proven solid start for early draft slots that prevent your roster from holes. Next up – can go anywhere. Likely wideouts and another running back in play for the next three rounds.

Team 3: RB Dalvin Cook, RB Austin Ekeler, WR Keenan Allen

This is the flip side of Team 2. Controlled his RB2 instead of his WR1 and came away with a solid start. Again – proven plan that honors the scoring system from this draft slot. Next up – probably a wideout and another running back. Solid but needs upside players or the team can end up average.

Team 4: RB Jonathan Taylor, RB David Montgomery, WR Terry McLaurin

First five draft slots all go running back this year, so the normal plan is to go RB-WR or WR-RB. This plan feels good in the first three rounds but looking back afterward can appear less exciting since no top players. Next up – drifting further from the start of the draft means lesser quality running backs. Should look for some difference makers in other positions to prevent a liability. While it lacks “pizzazz”, it also doesn’t have any holes.

Team 5: RB Ezekiel Elliott, WR Justin Jefferson, RB Chris Carson

Heading into the middle of the draft, the RB1 is good but the WR1 may be great in this format. Opting for Chris Carson in the third means a solid set of running backs, but safe doesn’t usually win championships. Next up – Like Team 4, need something to punch up the roster from another position. Solid teams can reach the playoffs but all too often are not in the championship.

Team 6: RB Derrick Henry, WR Calvin Ridley, TE George Kittle

This may be a middle of the draft team, but so far, the plan looks impressive. Started with the obligatory running back for a good RB1, and then was able to still access a Top-5 wideout with Calvin Ridley, and found George Kittle in the third. In this scoring format, drafting from the middle, this is a great start with three players near the top of their positions. Next up – has to consider an RB2 in the next round or round five at the latest or will have a hole that is very hard to fill.

Team 7: TE Travis Kelce, RB Antonio Gibson, RB J.K. Dobbins

Travis Kelce is the most intriguing first-round pick in this format. He’s taken between No. 4 and No. 12, but usually around picks seven to nine. He’s been a tremendous advantage for four years which is good, because using a first-round pick on a tight end sets a team back in everything else. This team went the safe route with double running backs which feels better after spending the first rounder on a tight end. Next up – can go anywhere. Wideouts are an obvious need now and should be heavily considered over the next several rounds. Can sneak a quarterback in as well, but even wideouts significantly decline in value if waited on too long.

Team 8: RB Nick Chubb, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, WR CeeDee Lamb

Doubling up on running backs is safe and a good base. In this scenario, started with the No. 7 and No. 12 running backs which is solid though without difference-making. Adding on upside wideout CeeDee Lamb as the No. 10 wideout selected is still following the runs. Safe start that needs some lucky picks later on to compete. Next up – can go anywhere, but should think about adding an earlier quarterback for some advantage. Otherwise, next three picks should probably provide two wideouts and a third running back.

Team 9: WR Stefon Diggs, RB Najee Harris, WR Allen Robinson II

The first wideout appears in this RB-hungry fantasy world, and that’s an immediate advantage. Tacked on the high-upside rookie of Najee Harris, then added the No. 12 wideout in Allen Robinson. That’s two Top-12 wideouts, and a rookie running back that, at least for now, offers exciting potential. The nine-spot is always tough, but this plan worked what was available well. Could have taken a running back in the third, but better off controlling which wideout that was available since the run on them is about to start in a major way. Next up – certainly much consider running back in maybe two of the next three picks. But a fun start that honors the scoring format.

Team 10: WR Davante Adams, RB Aaron Jones, WR Robert Woods

The same plan works for Team 10 as it did for Team 9. He gets the better running back and about the same at wideout. Taking two players from the same team for the first two picks scare some, so a different running back could make some drafters feel more comfortable. Next up – Same as Team 9. Consider two running backs over the next three picks and can take a quarterback if wanted.

Team 11: WR Tyreek Hill, WR DeAndre Hopkins, RB Mike Davis

At the end of the first round, usually at least one team will play contrarian and start with two wideouts. With reception points, owning Tyreek Hill and DeAndre Hopkins means two of the Top-5 receivers are cranking out difference-making fantasy points. But, doing so left team with 18 running backs already off the board and Mike Davis was best available here. Bottle up the feeling after two rounds because it won’t taste quite as sweet with below average players making up much of the remaining starters. Next up – running back is a need, so two more in a row is not a terrible idea. Already team is into the Josh Jacobs, Myles Gaskins, or Chase Edmonds area for RB2. This plan can work – absolutely. But the next three or four draft picks need to all hit to compensate for the initial disadvantage at running back.

Team 12: RB Joe Mixon, RB Saquon Barkley, WR A.J. Brown

This plan seems too safe. Most Team 12’s will consider WR-WR or sneaking in a quarterback or tight end in their first two picks but the way that 2021 plays out, no available tight end or quarterback merit a pick here. So that leaves just running backs and wideouts. Could have started with two wideouts like Team 11 and likely had the same effect. But went safe with Joe Mixon as the eighth running back drafted for their RB1, and then picked up the constantly falling Saquon Barkley. Tacked on A.J. Brown at WR1 to prevent a liability. If Barkley can return to past form, then this team got a bargain. If not, it is hard to make up that ground. Next up – need wideouts and should consider reaching for a higher tight end or quarterback to make up some advantage. This is a safe start, and it can work, but needs to hit on later value picks.

Super Flex / QB-heavy league

	Round 1		Round 2 (reverse)		Round 3
1.01	RB Christian McCaffrey	2.12	QB Aaron Rodgers	3.01	WR Calvin Ridley
1.02	RB Alvin Kamara	2.11	WR DeAndre Hopkins	3.02	RB Antonio Gibson
1.03	QB Patrick Mahomes	2.10	RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire	3.03	RB David Montgomery
1.04	RB Dalvin Cook	2.09	RB Najee Harris	3.04	TE Darren Waller
1.05	RB Jonathan Taylor	2.08	WR Tyreek Hill	3.05	QB Tom Brady
1.06	QB Josh Allen	2.07	RB Aaron Jones	3.06	RB Austin Ekeler
1.07	RB Ezekiel Elliott	2.06	TE Travis Kelce	3.07	WR Justin Jefferson
1.08	WR Stefon Diggs	2.05	RB Saquon Barkley	3.08	QB Justin Herbert
1.09	QB Kyler Murray	2.04	RB Joe Mixon	3.09	WR DK Metcalf
1.10	RB Derrick Henry	2.03	QB Russell Wilson	3.10	RB D’Andre Swift
1.11	QB Lamar Jackson	2.02	RB Nick Chubb	3.11	RB Chris Carson
1.12	WR Davante Adams	2.01	QB Dak Prescott	3.12	RB J.K. Dobbins

This league seeds in quarterbacks depending on how and why quarterbacks are so valuable. The most common is the ability to start two quarterbacks. That extends value in other positions deeper into the draft since quarterbacks take up more of the early picks. Each 2QB or super-flex league can use different scoring and other aspects that impact player value, so consider the nuances of your league.

There are a definite Top-6 in quarterbacks this year. After those are taken, the perceived positional value becomes less consistent and predictable.

It is also assumed that there are reception points. That is by far the most common in that type of league. It is also notable that a team can win without automatically starting two quarterbacks even when allowed.

Team 1: RB Christian McCaffrey, QB Aaron Rodgers, WR Calvin Ridley

Owning the No. 1 pick is also an advantage, but it plays out differently in this format. Started with Christian McCaffery, but then six quarterbacks had been taken by the 2.12. Still went with Aaron Rodgers and then accessed the No. 5 wideout with Calvin Ridley. Same plan as Team 1 in the reception points league, but not quite as shiny and impressive. Next up – owning McCaffrey gives confidence that often leaves owners putting off their RB2. That’s still not that prudent and the next picks are the 48th and 49th of the draft. One of those must be running back, if not both.

Team 2: RB Alvin Kamara, WR DeAndre Hopkins, RB Antonio Gibson

Though two quarterbacks may be started, not every team will scramble to get “a quarterback, any quarterback.” Started with Alvin Kamara but went with the No. 3 wideout in DeAndre Hopkins since the Top-5 quarterbacks were already gone. Antonio Gibson in the third starts the team on solid footing with some firepower in those first two picks. Next up – free to go anywhere. Obviously quarterback needs to be address since the position will get drained much faster in this format. Could be fine with a couple of younger, upside quarterbacks.

Team 3: QB Patrick Mahomes, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB David Montgomery

The most interesting part of the first round is when Patrick Mahomes is taken (or Josh Allen). That feels really good and yields an obvious advantage. But that also left the team doubling up on running backs. Clyde Edwards-Helaire could have been Antonio Gibson or David Montgomery if owning two players on the same team is an issue. Next up – solid start to be sure and allows next few picks to go anywhere. More likely wideouts and a second quarterback by the sixth round.

Team 4: RB Dalvin Cook, RB Najee Harris, TE Darren Waller

While this plan doesn’t include any quarterbacks, it is very workable in this format. If the rookie Najee Harris comes through as expected, then a great 1-2 punch with running backs adds the No. 2 tight end in the third which is possible in this style of league play. The Waller pick gains an advantage at tight end for a solid core. Next up – must mine the wideouts and quarterbacks over the next three or four picks for a balanced team without any holes.

Team 5: RB Jonathan Taylor, WR Tyreek Hill, QB Tom Brady

Started with Jonathan Taylor for a solid RB1 and reached Tyreek Hill as the No. 3 wideout which is possible with five or six quarterbacks showing up in the initial 15 or so picks. The Tom Brady pick (or No. 8 quarterback) was a reasonable attempt to get a Top-10 quarterback since anywhere from two to six more may be gone by the 4.08 when they go again. Next up – free to go any direction, but another running back in the next two rounds is prudent, along with a wideout. Balanced start allows freedom to go at value instead of need.

Team 6: QB Josh Allen, RB Aaron Jones, RB Austin Ekeler

This format encourages taking an elite quarterback this early. Followed up with safe picks of Aaron Jones and Austin Ekeler. Running backs are not going to be an advantage so far, but every other position may still be. Next up – wideouts and a second quarterback make the most sense. Probably won’t have much at tight end but that is okay.

Team 7: RB Ezekiel Elliott, TE Travis Kelce, WR Justin Jefferson

Maybe there are no quarterbacks here, but this would kill in a reception-points league and can be just as good in a Super-Flex. Started out with Ezekiel Elliott for a solid RB1 and then added the No. 1 tight end that could fall this far in this format. Added Justin Jefferson as the No. 6 wideout taken. Balanced start with some firepower at three positions so far. Next up – running back and quarterback are needed over the next three or four picks. If a wideout with higher value fell, he could be considered, but loading up on quarterback and running back needs to happen while it still can.

Team 8: WR Stefon Diggs, RB Saquon Barkley, QB Justin Herbert

Opted to start with the No. 1 wideout, then settled for the No. 9 running back in Saquon Barkley, who may become the No. 1 again (or No. 119 again, depending). Went with Justin Herbert as the No. 9 quarterback to ensure no liability at the position. Balanced start though a little risky. Next up – with Barkley, need to load up on other running backs sooner than later in case he has a slow start. But aside from running backs, the balanced start means picking for value in any position.

Team 9: QB Kyler Murray, RB Joe Mixon, WR DK Metcalf

The No. 9 team is not disadvantaged as they might be in other league formats. Missed out on a Top-5 running back but was able to add a Top-3 quarterback. Joined him with Joe Mixon at RB1 and still reached DK Metcalf as a Top-7 wideout thanks to all those other quarterbacks taking up space in the initial rounds. Next up – Like Team 8, balanced start means being able to hunt for best value in any position. The RB2 needs to be added without the next couple of rounds, but a good looking start from a normally tougher draft slot.

Team 10: RB Derrick Henry, QB Russell Wilson, RB D’Andre Swift

The sixth running back comes off the board knowing that the two teams waiting to draft will consider them and the drop-off in running back quality could fall into a lower tier. Added Russell Wilson as the sixth quarterback taken over the first fourteen picks and the final one from the initial quarterback tier. Went with RB2 of D’Andre Swift for upside. Good core to start but needs firepower from other positions. Next up – wide receivers are an obvious need and should be addressed a couple of times over the next three or four rounds. But the start was solid enough to allow grabbing anyone that seems a great value.

Team 11: QB Lamar Jackson, RB Nick Chubb, RB Chris Carson

The fourth quarterback taken in the first round says this is not your normal league format. But the initial six quarterbacks are almost universally considered as the elite in their position this year. Tacked on Nick Chubb as RB1 and then opted for Chris Carson as RB2 since the elite players were gone from the four main positions. Since Team 12 had no running backs in their first two picks, it’s a lock they will take one or even two before the 4.02 rolls back. Next up – looking for wideouts has to happen soon, but taking another quarterback or running back works as well if the value is there.

Team 12: WR Davante Adams, QB Dak Prescott, RB J.K. Dobbins

The back-end of the first round is not nearly so bad in this format that adds more valuable players to the pile. Went with the No. 2 wideout and grabbed Dak Prescott for what could be spectacular results (health willing). Final pick of J.K. Dobbins was prudent and yielded a balanced start. There is firepower at WR1 and QB1, and waiting until the end of the third round still reaches the No. 18 running back. Next up – certainly running back is in order and likely this next pick at the 4.01. But balanced start allows more strategy in how the team comes together in this format over others.

2021 Fantasy Draft Trends

Checking out the positional trends of 2021 fantasy football drafts.

Understanding how your fantasy draft unfolds helps you to prepare to win – or at least know what to expect. The COVID-19 pandemic impacted last season, but not nearly as badly as feared. This summer is more back to normal, but there are still unique aspects and notable trends to this year.

Preseason

For 2021, each NFL team plays in three preseason games that stretch from Thursday, August 12, through Sunday, August 29, so there are fewer chances to see players in games. The NFL cut down process also changes the final 53-man cutdown to Tuesday, August 31. Usually, final cuts were only four days before the first game. This year, it is a full nine days before Week 1 kicks off, so teams have more time to address their final rosters. Or pull off final week trades. That directly impacts fantasy drafts like last year when Leonard Fournette changed teams just a week before the 2020 season started.

17 Game Season

While it may not directly impact your fantasy draft, the reality is that adding a game to the schedule means another week a player could be injured. It makes owning the handcuffs for a running back or carrying a solid No. 2 quarterback a bit more reasonable. As it is, only half of the starting quarterbacks played all 16 games last year. Only four of the Top-20 running backs didn’t miss a game, and half of the Top-30 wideouts were out for at least one week. Owning backups makes even more sense.

Draft Trends

The run on the different fantasy positions is close to what is typically seen, so here is what you can expect.

Quarterbacks – In leagues using two quarterbacks, the run starts in the first round and goes heavily through the third. In traditional leagues, the same players make up the Top-5: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, and Lamar Jackson. Mahomes typically goes in the late third round. Everyone else realizes that’s too early, and the run usually begins in the fifth round and consumes the other four difference makers. There are still great values out in the eighth to tenth round, so waiting is always a sound strategy.

Running Backs – As always, the first three rounds are a love-fest for the position. Some leagues may see eight in a row to start their draft. Waiting on running backs is a new, yet terrifying, draft strategy. It is not for the timid because while the start of the third round can easily access a Top-8 wideout, likely 14 to 16 running backs are gone. That means a disadvantage at the most consistent fantasy scorer in your starting lineup. You can win a league and not take two running backs over the first three rounds. You just have to get lucky.

The Top-8 running backs always contain Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, Nick Chubb, and Jonathan Taylor. Their order differs dramatically other than McCaffrey goes first.

By the fifth round, expect the pickings to be slim, at least considering risk. There are guys like Myles Gaskin, Travis Etienne, Mike Davis, James Robinson, Chase Edmonds, and Kareem Hunt, who all have upside, but just as much risk. After round four, they are the back half of a committee, an untested rookie or a player that’s been downgraded from last year.

The rookies are popular as always, and many are rising in drafts as the season draws near. Najee Harris is the only certain workhorse. Travis Etienne remains a fourth or fifth-rounder as the apparent third-down back in Jacksonville. Javonte Williams, Trey Sermon, and Michael Carter are all gaining popularity as speculation grows that they can become the No. 1 back in their respective offenses. They offer that zesty fun by swinging for the fence, and realistically everyone loves a rookie back more than they should.

Wide Receivers – If you are willing to wait on running backs, there is great value in the first five rounds for wideouts. In most leagues, there will only be six to eight taken by the start of the third round. That means it is possible to start your fantasy team with two Top-10 wideouts which is always an advantage as elite receivers are safer year-to-year than any other position.

By the end of the fourth round, most fantasy teams contain two running backs and two wide receivers. Rounds three and four are heavy with wide receivers. By the fifth round, there are still high-upside players like Kenny Golladay, Cooper Kupp, Brandon Aiyuk, Chase Claypool and the like. And remember, wide receivers are the deepest position and easiest to make up ground later in the draft and even as free agent acquisitions during the season.

This is a banner year for rookie wideouts. Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Kadarius Toney, and Rashad Bateman were all first-round picks that carry expectations even in their first year. Chase, Waddle and Smith offer high upside for a sixth to eighth pick.

Tight Ends – The reality with fantasy tight ends is that there are always three elite difference-makers and minimal differences in the rest. Last year, George Kittle was injured, so there were only two – Travis Kelce and Darren Waller. Particularly in fantasy leagues with reception points, expect Kelce to go in the back half of the first round. If he doesn’t, grab him. He’s been the No. 1 fantasy tight end in four of the last five years. Waller usually falls towards the end of the second round. Kittle drops to the third after missing eight games last year. After that – wait.

T.J. Hockenson, Mark Andrews, and the rookie Kyle Pitts are next in round five or six. They offer upside in a position with precious little. After that – most leagues won’t bother with the position until round eight through ten. Taking Kelce or Waller is an advantage, but with a cost in getting a difference-maker at running back since the position quickly drains in the initial two rounds.