Tag: 2021 college football

Bowl Season Think, Know, Believe: College Football Daily Cavalcade

After a strange bowl season, what I think, know, and believe about the fun – and strange – 2021-2022 college football post-season.

College Football Daily Cavalcade: What I think, what I know, and what I believe after the bowl season and before the College Football Playoff.

College Football Daily Cavalcade

– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak

Sorry if this take sucks, it’s not my fault …

The best blurbs opted out or transferred to columns that paid more NIL money.

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Expert Picks: CFP National Championship
Predicting The Final Polls AP | Coaches

You’ll have to be patient. It’s written in Brian Kelly’s Boston accent.

I think … it was a joke.

I know … Brian Kelly tries really hard to be funny, but he’s too dead-pan for a large portion of the social media world that’s dead inside.

I believe … those who didn’t understand that Kelly is trying to poke fun at himself would also fall for the “hey, where are the left-handed footballs?” gag.

I think … there were a whole slew of problems with the bowl season, but …

I know … it was a lot better than last year’s version. However …

I believe … this might have been the bowl season that could cause a tweak to the whole thing.

I think … Texas A&M and UCLA and Hawaii – and others – showed that it’s way too easy to not play in these things.

I know … there’s no dogging a team for not being able to go because of COVID issues.

I believe … several of the canceled bowls could’ve figured out a way to make the games go a few days later if the teams that tapped out really wanted to make it happen.

I think … not having enough top players able to go is no excuse.

I know … LSU’s remaining coaches and players deserve all the credit in the world for giving it the old college try with a totally depleted lineup. However …

I believe … in just about every way possible, the Texas Bowl is Exhibit A for the “too many bowls” prosecution I’m fighting with as we speak.

I think … the SEC is still the SEC, but …

I know … the brand took a hit with so many losses, but …

I believe … if every SEC team this bowl season had its full complement of players – or, just a few key parts who took off because they’re too good for bowl games – the final numbers would be different.

I think … coaches leaving their teams before the bowls is way, way, 100x worse than players opting out.

I know … Matt Corral is a grown man who made a grown man decision to play.

I believe … everyone needs to quit saying Corral – and others who played – did things “the right way,” because that would mean Kenny Pickett, Kenneth Walker, Chris Olave, etc. did things the “wrong” way.

I think … it takes a giant pair to fault a kid for preserving his investment and dreams by opting out, all while the coaches, the networks, the universities, the non-revenue athletes, the local business, the bowl people in the cool jackets, the t-shirt salesmen, the concession booths, the gambling world, the school fund-raising effort, etc. all generate hundreds of millions of dollars off the players.

I know … the opt-out answer is simple: money.

I believe … top players will eventually have NIL deals with clauses that pay more if they showcase their talents in a top bowl game.

Expert Picks: CFP National Championship
Predicting The Final Polls AP | Coaches

I think … Jim Harbaugh will be the next head coach of the Chicago Bears.

I know … he has taken Michigan as far as it can go considering the Ohio State problem will never go away.

I believe … Michigan hiring Urban Meyer would be the greatest thing in the history of things, followed closely by Lane Kiffin somehow being the next Wolverine head man. Neither of which will happen, of course, if Harbaugh really does leave.

I think … the College Football Playoff desperately needs to expand.

I know … 13 of the 16 CFP semifinals have been double-digit blowouts.

I believe … more games would make things harder for the top teams. More chances to suffer a key injury, have a bad day, not be 100%, because …

I think … when you give the teams with all of the talent a month to get healthy and ready, bad things happen.

I know … I’m awful at picking College Football Playoff semifinal games, but I got these two dead-cold, because …

I believe … Alabama and Georgia have lots and lots and lots and lots of talent. Michigan brought lots of talent, and Cincinnati brought talent.

I think … I made the smart move leaving the Orange Bowl relatively early before the fourth to make the drive across Florida.

I know … that thing was over after Georgia’s first drive.

I believe … no one started out with a worse 2022 than the soul-crushed- super-fan-who-spent-thousands-on-that-game dad in the Hard Rock Stadium parking lot 1) all decked out in Michigan gear and 2) totally clueless where the car was, all while 3) getting asked over and over again by the wife “where’s the car?” because 4) the exhausted kids were crying that they wanted to go to the car.

I think … going forward, every bowl should have a contingency plan.

I know … there should be at least ten other teams at the ready to go play if needed.

I believe … if nothing else, the backup teams would get in some extra practices, which is pretty much what truly matters about the bowl season.

I think … ESPN couldn’t trip over itself fast enough to push the “bowls matter” agenda with almost every broadcast.

I know … these are businesses. Bowl games are money for everyone involved – EVERYONE involved – from the promotion for the theme parks, to the business deals done by the people who run them, to the restaurants, to the hotels, to the sponsors, and on and on and on, but …

I believe … they’re all sold to the world as these magnanimous fun things the bowls do for the love of the game and the joy of the players, when they’re all just promotional events for the cities.

I think … other than the College Football Playoff and the Rose Bowl, bowls really don’t matter, but …

I know … it really doesn’t matter that bowls don’t really matter, with college football playing its exhibition season at the end, because …

I believe … bowls are awesome, and anyone who thinks otherwise totally watched them anyway. Yes, the system should be revamped, and yes, they are about money, but they’re fun. What are you going to do in December, other stuff?

I think … I refuse to acknowledge the trying-to-be-cool crowd that likes to dismiss bowl games, just because.

I know … many of those people actually believe the NBA matters before late May.

I believe … December would suck without the bowls.

I think … the powers-that-be are batspit insane to not do the 12-team expanded College Football Playoff format, because …

I know … the overall system would still be fine – people have to bet on something – but December viewership and interest would go up 50 levels if some of these bowls were playoff games.

I believe … there has to be a mechanism to play your way in. You win your Power Five championship, you’re in.

I think … the bowls want to get rid of your opt-out problem.

I know … an expanded College Football Playoff would do just that for the biggest stars.

I believe … it’s going to happen. For now, everyone is posturing and everyone is being weird about it.

I think … I’ll do another one of these things hitting each and every bowl game from this post-season.

I know … it’ll be more fun than this version was.

I believe … it won’t be so preachy. That’s a lie, but I’ll give it a shot.

I think … I know it’s all going to be okay.

I know … I believe it’s all going to be okay.

I believe … I think it’s all going to be okay.

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Expert Picks: CFP National Championship
Predicting The Final Polls AP | Coaches

College Football Playoff Rankings: Think, Know, Believe On The Penultimate CFP Top 25

College Football Playoff rankings: Quick analysis with what I think, what I know, and what I believe on the penultimate CFP Top 25

College Football Daily Cavalcade: What I think, what I know, and what I believe after the penultimate round of College Football Playoff Rankings.

College Football Playoff Rankings: Daily Cavalcade on the Top 25

– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak

Sorry if this take sucks, it’s not my fault …

Before finishing this piece – and not knowing how it would turn out – I left for LSU.

Never, EVER, let a chance to be pretentious go unused.

I think … I refuse to refer to these as the penultimate College Football rankings until the committee goes all in and calls last week’s version the antepenultimate rankings.

I know … I took four years of Latin. I averaged a rock-solid C+.

I believe … penultimate is Latin for “these don’t really matter until we know who wins the Power Five conference championships.”

I think … Notre Dame is more alive in this College Football Playoff thing than many are letting on.

I know … Brian Kelly just had to bolt for LSU a few days before knowing whether or not the team he was coaching was actually out of the College Football Playoff.

I believe … this would be an all-timer if Notre Dame had a shot to get in, but the committee left it out because its former head coach chose to go live his best life …

I think … Notre Dame might be in if gets two losses this weekend between Alabama, Michigan, Oklahoma State, and Cincinnati.

I know … College Football Playoff committee chairman Gary Barta pointed out that all factors are considered – like if a star quarterback gets hurt, or if a team doesn’t have its head coach.

I believe … there aren’t enough candles at the Grotto to save Brian Kelly with the fan base if his early departure costs the Irish a College Football Playoff spot.

I think … Brian Kelly left for LSU to try to win a national championship.

I know … it was for gobs and gobs of money, too.

I believe … YOU DON’T LEAVE FOR ANOTHER JOB when the team you just led through the season has a shot at being two wins away from winning a national championship.

I think … defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman could step in and do the job if needed.

I know … no one would sell Notre Dame better over that lobbying period after the conference championships and before the final rankings are announced on Sunday morning.

I believe … Notre Dame would all of a sudden become America’s team to root for if it’s in without its head coach.

I think … Oklahoma State is fine at 5.

I know … if it beats No. 9 Baylor, that would make it two top ten wins – Oklahoma was 10 last week – to close out the season.

I believe … 12-1 Big 12 Champion Oklahoma State is in over Cincinnati if Alabama beats Georgia.

I think … this is easy peasy if Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC Championship.

I know … Georgia would get the 1, Michigan would be the 2 if that goes to plan.

I believe … Alabama is out. Maybe.

[lawrence-related id=540095]

I think … the committee and the College Football Playoff types would love nothing more than for Oklahoma State to play in AT&T Stadium in Arlington.

I know … the committee doesn’t think about location when it does its rankings … really.

I believe … Oklahoma State jumps Cincinnati to the 3 if wins the Big 12 Championship, and it’s a no-brainer if it beats Baylor in a blowout.

I think … we’re WAY overdue for something wacky to happen.

I know … we have yet to have a monster upset in one of the significant conference championships in the College Football Playoff era.

I believe … the College Football Playoff won’t somehow be Georgia, Alabama, Notre Dame, and Ohio State when I see it.

Rankings AP | Coaches | CFN 1-130 Rankings
Bowl Projections | Bowl Eligible Teams

I think … Ohio State at the 7 is a big deal.

I know … Iowa is in the Rose Bowl if it beats Michigan.

I believe … unless Alabama beats Georgia, Michigan still has a decent shot of getting in if loses to Iowa tastefully.

I think … it’ll be fascinating how this all plays out, because …

I know … Oklahoma State is up first on Saturday. Everyone else will know what they need to do after the early Big 12 Championship.

I believe … Oklahoma State is going to secure a spot by about 3:30 ET on Saturday, and then the pressure is on.

I think … Cincinnati will know it needs to be impressive against Houston.

I know … Houston is good enough to win the American Athletic Conference Championship.

I believe … Cincinnati will win, but beating the No. 21 team won’t be enough to overcome Oklahoma State beating the No. 9 team.

I think … I’m totally torn on Georgia-Alabama.

I know … Auburn had the chance to kill the zombie, and it didn’t do it.

I believe … Alabama is deadly when it can do the Nobody Believes In Us thing.

I think … Iowa can’t come close to beating Michigan unless Iowa forces at least three turnovers.

I know … Michigan will turn the ball over three times.

I believe … Iowa doesn’t have enough of an offense to take advantage of the three turnovers.

I think … about 12 people are going to watch the ACC Championship because …

I know … it’s on at the same time as the Big Ten Championship.

I believe … Pitt vs Wake Forest might be the most entertaining game of the weekend.

I think … on Sunday it’s going to be 1. Georgia, 2. Michigan, 3. Oklahoma State, 4. Cincinnati.

I know … it’s not going to be quite that easy.

I believe … Alabama will somehow be a part of this, just because.

I think … I know it’s all going to be okay.

I know … I believe it’s all going to be okay.

I believe … I think it’s all going to be okay.

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Rankings AP | Coaches | CFN 1-130 Rankings
Bowl Projections | Bowl Bubble

College Football Playoff Rankings: Think, Know, Believe On The CFP Top 25

After the latest round of the College Football Playoff rankings, here’s what I think, what I know, and what I believe about the CFP Top 25 after the fourth round of the exercise.

College Football Daily Cavalcade: What I think, what I know, and what I believe after the latest round of College Football Playoff Rankings.

College Football Playoff Rankings: Daily Cavalcade on the Top 25

– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak

Sorry if this take sucks, it’s not my fault …

It had to go on the road to play Utah and Ohio State last week. It’s not like it had to play SMU – aka the second-coming of 1995 Nebraska.

There you go, everyone. Cincinnati is in the top four …

I think … SMU is just whatever.

I know … Cincinnati is getting a TON of love for that win over a meh team.

I believe … too many people care about records and not the teams themselves.

I think … Cincinnati will end up in the College Football Playoff.

I know … it’s not going to be because of anything funky, if it gets in.

I believe … the College Football Playoff committee won’t put in a two-loss Alabama over Cincinnati. At least …

I think … the College Football Playoff committee won’t put in a two-loss Alabama over Cincinnati.

I know … the committee LOVES itself some Alabama.

I believe … this will be an interesting debate if it comes down to two-loss Alabama vs unbeaten Cincinnati for the last spot.

[lawrence-related id=539423]

I think … Cincinnati loses to either East Carolina or Houston.

I know … those are the two most dangerous games Cincinnati will play other than the win over Notre Dame.

I believe … if Cincinnati wallops ECU and Houston, it’s in without much of a debate. However …

I think … schedule is going to factor into the final College Football Playoff rankings.

I know … the committee is ALL about the Power Five conference championships.

I believe … this isn’t as easy as you might think.

I think … too many analysts are treating the latest round of rankings like they are set in stone.

I know … EVERYTHING the committee does up until the final rankings don’t matter.

I believe … they’re simply a snapshot of the moment. The final rankings take into account the most important games of the year – the Power Five conference championships. Which is why …

I think … a 12-1 Big 12 Champion gets in. (More on this in a moment.)

I know … a 12-1 Big 12 Champion Oklahoma State will get in.

I believe … a 12-1 Big 12 Champion Oklahoma will get in … maybe.

I think … Houston could become a factor.

I know … the College Football Playoff committee – when it comes to the final rankings – takes the entire season into account, and Texas Tech’s win over Houston to start the season could become more prominent, because …

I believe … it’s a problem for Cincinnati if it struggles with the Cougars in the American Athletic Conference Championship, because …

I think … Oklahoma State just pitched a perfect game against the Red Raiders.

I know … it’s not the same Texas Tech team in a whole lot of ways than the one that showed up to start the season.

I believe … the committee is more torn overall on Cincinnati than you think.

Rankings AP | Coaches | CFN 1-130 Rankings
Bowl Projections | Bowl Bubble

I think … Notre Dame is in a weird spot – and no, not South Bend.

I know … it can’t get past the hard ceiling of unbeaten Cincinnati.

I believe … Notre Dame needs Cincinnati to lose one of these last two games, and then it’s right there in the mix for the top four.

I think … the College Football Playoff committee isn’t taking an 11-1 Notre Dame over a 12-1 Big 12 Champion.

I know … Notre Dame has a real shot to get in if Georgia blows out Alabama.

I believe … Notre Dame should be ranked ahead of Michigan and will be after this weekend, but it needs to draw an inside straight to get in. (BTW, I think I don’t know that I believe what that poker term actually means.)

I think … y’all are missing one key self-fulfilling aspect of the College Football Playoff rankings.

I know … Oklahoma State is 7, Baylor is 8, and Oklahoma is 10. SO …

I believe … if there’s a 12-1 Big 12 champion Oklahoma or Oklahoma State, it’ll technically have two wins currently left unaccounted for against current top ten teams. SO, technically, no one has a tougher final two game schedule right now than a 12-1 Big 12 Champion.

I think … the Rose Bowl race becomes interesting if Ohio State wins out.

I know … if Michigan keeps this reasonably close against the Buckeyes, it’ll get the nod to Pasadena unless …

I believe … Michigan State will go to the Rose Bowl if it annihilates Penn State, because the committee would put Spartans up over the Wolverines in the final rankings.

I think … San Diego State isn’t all that great.

I know … San Diego State beat Utah.

I believe … 10-1 San Diego State should – technically – be above the Utes.

I think … it’s going Alabama isn’t in this as much as everyone thinks it is – if it loses to Georgia.

I know … Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State, and Michigan are the only four teams that truly control their own destiny.

I believe … it’s going to be Georgia, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Cincinnati.

I think … I know it’s all going to be okay.

I know … I believe it’s all going to be okay.

I believe … I think it’s all going to be okay.

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Rankings AP | Coaches | CFN 1-130 Rankings
Bowl Projections | Bowl Bubble

College Football Playoff Rankings Daily Cavalcade: Think, Know, Believe On The Top 25

After the latest round of the College Football Playoff rankings, here’s what I think, what I know, and what I believe about the top 25

College Football Daily Cavalcade: What I think, what I know, and what I believe after the latest round of College Football Playoff Rankings.

College Football Playoff Rankings: Daily Cavalcade on the Top 25

– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak

Sorry if this take sucks, it’s not my fault …

Like the College Football Playoff, this has yet to expand to include everyone.

I’ve been through the experience. The ranking process in Grapevine is whatever, but the spread of fine meats and cheeses is top drawer …

I think … Michigan State beat Michigan a few weeks ago. Wait a minute …

I know … Michigan State beat Michigan a few weeks ago.

I believe … it can’t still be the one major head-to-head inconsistency in the top 25 over the last two weeks, because if you do that …

I think … the Oregon loss to Stanford is among the worst by any team in the top 25.

I know … Ohio State has crushed it since the loss to the Ducks.

I believe … Oregon should be ranked ahead of Ohio State, but considering the Michigan-Michigan State thing, a mediocre performance against Washington State would’ve dropped Oregon behind Ohio State.

I think … if the one loss by Michigan State was so egregious that it pushed it behind Michigan, and …

I know … the committee blew off losses to Notre Dame, Minnesota, and Wisconsin in last week’s rankings, then …

I believe … losing at Ohio State – even 59-31 – shouldn’t have been enough to knock Purdue out of the top 25 with wins over now-17 Iowa and now-7 Michigan State.

[lawrence-related id=539124]

I think … it doesn’t matter because …

I know … Oregon and Michigan State control their respective destinies.

I believe … Georgia, Alabama, Oregon, Ohio State, and Michigan State are the only five teams that can plan on being in – OSU and Michigan State play this weekend – by winning out.

I think … Cincinnati will be in the top four at some point.

I know … the committee cares about 12-1 or unbeaten Power Five conference champions over anything else.

I believe … the committee will do a 2014 TCU and yoink Cincinnati out of the top four if there are four viable Power Five teams.

I think … someone in that room in Grapevine argued the merits of ranking Notre Dame higher than 8.

I know … Notre Dame’s only loss was to Cincinnati.

I believe … if you really believe Cincinnati is the fifth-best team in the country based on just one win that overcomes a slew of mega-meh performances against awful teams, then the team that lost that game should be ranked one spot at the 6 behind UC.

I think … Oklahoma State is the underground indie band team the mainstream is just starting to get into.

I know … it’s going to beat Oklahoma in the regular season finale.

I believe … Oklahoma State will probably play Baylor in the Big 12 Championship, not Oklahoma.

I think … Oklahoma State will be 12-1 with its lone loss coming in a tasteful fight at Iowa State.

I know … the committee loves its 12-1 Power Five conference champions.

I believe … Oklahoma State – if it comes down to it – will get in over 13-0 Cincinnati, but …

I think … Oklahoma isn’t out of this yet.

I know … it has lost regular season games before and gone on to win Big 12 Championships and make College Football Playoff appearances.

I believe … Oklahoma finds its way in if it wins out over Iowa State and Oklahoma State twice to finish as the 12-1 Big 12 Champion.

Rankings CFP | AP | Coaches | CFN 1-130
Bowl Projections | Heisman Race
College Football Playoff Chase, Who’s Alive?
Coach Hot Seat Top 10 | Bowl Bubble: Who’s In, Out

I think … Oregon loses at Utah this weekend.

I know … Ohio State is more beatable than it seems.

I believe … Notre Dame is lurking in this more than people think.

I think … Notre Dame will be 11-1 because …

I know … it’ll destroy Georgia Tech and win at Stanford and …

I believe … it’s going end up 5 in the final rankings.

I think … being in the 2/3 this year really, really, really matters because …

I know … you do NOT want to be the 4 and deal with Georgia, however …

I believe … if Alabama is the 12-1 SEC Champion, it gets the 1 seed, 12-1 Georgia gets the 2, and then getting the 3 is the sucker spot instead of – at least this year with this Bama team – the 4.

I think … Houston, San Diego State, and UTSA are more in the mix for a New Year’s Six bowl game than it might seem.

I know … it’s going to end up being Houston vs Cincinnati in the American Athletic Conference Championship.

I believe … the winner will get the New Year’s Six cookie the committee throws the top Group of Five champion.

I think … no one on the committee has seen San Diego State play, because …

I know … San Diego State plays until the wee hours of the AM for most of the country.

I believe … really, there’s no way, no how, no chance any of the committee members watched the games against San Jose State, Hawaii, or Fresno State. With that said …

I think … UTSA and Houston can’t make this argument.

I know … San Diego State beat Utah, Air Force, Arizona – it has a conference win and Indiana doesn’t – and Nevada, with every game essentially on the road with the team playing its “home” games this season in Carson, California.

I believe … if San Diego State wins the Mountain West championship – and if Utah wins the Pac-12 title – even with the loss to Fresno State, resumé-wise a case could be made that it’s the most deserving Group of Five team even if Cincinnati goes 13-0.

I think … Georgia will beat Alabama in the SEC Championship in an epic-close game.

I know … there will be two other viable Power Five options that have to get in.

I believe … it would be a glorious come-to-Bill-Hancock moment for the future of the College Football Playoff if the raging national debate – and in the committee room – is over 11-2 Alabama vs 13-0 Cincinnati for that fourth spot.

I think … Georgia beats Alabama, Oregon loses to Utah or Oregon State, Wake Forest loses at Clemson.

I know … the Because It’s Alabama clause sits in a box in the corner of the CFP committee meeting room.

I believe … it’s going to end up being Georgia, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, and Cincinnati, in that order.

I think … I know it’s all going to be okay.

I know … I believe it’s all going to be okay.

I believe … I think it’s all going to be okay.

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Rankings CFP | AP | Coaches | CFN 1-130
Bowl Projections | Heisman Race
College Football Playoff Chase, Who’s Alive?
Coach Hot Seat Top 10 | Bowl Bubble: Who’s In, Out

Sooners QB Caleb Williams highest graded Power Five QB through week 10 by PFF

Oklahoma Sooners’ Caleb Williams remained the highest graded Power Five quarterback by Pro Football Focus through week 10.

The Sooners have another Heisman hopeful at the quarterback position. It’s virtually been the standard operating procedure for the better part of the last five years of the Oklahoma football program. The catch is, the guy that’s the Heisman hopeful is not the guy that started the season under center for Oklahoma. True freshman Caleb Williams usurped Spencer Rattler as the starter after relieving him in the Texas game and providing a spark in one of the biggest Oklahoma comebacks in years.

Since that moment, Williams has been the starter. He’s dazzled and thrown 12 touchdown passes in 3.5 games. Pro Football Focus has taken note of Williams’ play, and he currently stands as the Power Five’s highest-graded quarterback at a grade of 95.1. Seth Galina of PFF had this to say:

The Sooners were off this week, but we are going to find out exactly what this team is made of going forward. They play Baylor, Iowa State and Oklahoma State to finish out the season. Luckily for them, it seems like they’ve found their next great quarterback. Williams remains on top of the rankings for another week and is one of four quarterbacks with a yards-per-attempt figure above 10.0 — his 10.8 mark ranks third-highest in the country. – Galina

Caleb Williams has galvanized this Oklahoma program which in some ways seemed sluggish. Williams in the starting role has been like putting fresh batteries in a remote-controlled car and seeing how fast it zips around afterward. The Sooners have games coming up against formidable conference foes, and all three teams boast stiff defenses that are familiar with Oklahoma’s offense.

Williams ultimately may be the ex-factor. His cool head and his ability to make plays with his feet may be the difference between the Sooners running through this three-game stretch undefeated or with a loss. A single defeat that could derail Oklahoma’s chances at holding up a conference championship trophy or contending for the national title.

As many of us know, the sport of football is highly dependent on the play of quarterbacks. This team will go where this seemingly transcendent talent at quarterback will take them. There’s a level of mystique like we’ve seen with Sooners quarterbacks of the past that makes you feel confident that Oklahoma has a shot against anyone. With a game this week on the road against Baylor, we’ll see just how good he is.

Contact/Follow us @SoonersWire on Twitter, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Oklahoma news, notes, and opinions.

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FPI projects Notre Dame-USC outcome

Do you think Saturday’s game come down to the final minutes?

As frustrating as Notre Dame has been through the first six games of 2021 I feel safe in stating a few things about them:

  • They’re a good but not great team
  • Their flaws being as obvious as they are frustrating to see because they’ve been evident almost weekly
  • Like the majority of the time since 2017, this team is going to win a lot simply because they rarely do something to beat themselves (Cincinnati game obviously withstanding)

With all of that in mind, and the fact that the rival USC Trojans are just 3-3 and again playing under an interim head coach as they travel to South Bend, it’s not a surprise to see Notre Dame as an overwhelming favorite in Saturday’s game according to ESPN’s Football Power Index.

FPI Projection: Notre Dame 77.3% chance to win

I will note that I find the FPI rankings system to be largely absurd but do find value in their individual game projections the deeper into the season we get.

A win would give Notre Dame their fourth-straight over the Trojans which would be the longest winning streak for the Irish since taking 11-straight from 1983-1993.

Related:

Experts make Notre Dame-USC predictions

Notre Dame-USC: Fun facts from epic college football rivalry

Notre Dame’s statistical leaders through first six games

College Football Daily Cavalcade: Think, Know, Believe After Week 6

College Football Daily Cavalcade: What I think, what I know, and what I believe after Week 6.

College Football Daily Cavalcade: What I think, what I know, and what I believe after Week 6.

College Football Daily Cavalcade

– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak

Sorry if this take sucks, it’s not my fault …

It’s up 28-7 after the first quarter. In full and total control, it can just coast on in as long as Lincoln Riley doesn’t do something dramatically crazy, like pull Spencer Rattler.

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Seriously, if you haven’t been entertained by the first six weeks of the season, I can’t help you. Now, over the second half of the 2021 college football campaign …

I think … I know what’s going to happen.

I know … I believe what’s going to happen.

I believe … I think I know what’s going to happen.

I think … I’m jaded by years of doing this.

I know … I’m used to calming down normally sane and rational college football people who think THIS is the season we’re all in for something weird.

I believe … weird will happen, but it’ll end up leading to an all-too-familiar place.

I think … weird things happen in the second half of the season.

I know … good teams that aren’t used to being among the elite get very, very, very tight at some key moment – when it’s really on – in the second half of the season.

I believe … elite programs end up showing why they’re elite in the second half of the season.

I think … Iowa is a fine team with a great defense.

I know … the Penn State coaching staff did a miserable job of helping out backup quarterback Ta’Quan Roberson, who had no prayer of getting the passing game going against that swarming Hawkeye D.

I believe … I’ve seen this Iowa movie before. It’s a blast of a ride, and you want to root for the hero, but it doesn’t end well.

I think … there a whole lot of messed up things about college football.

I know … there are a whole lot of messed up things we blow off because the games on Saturday are so amazing.

I believe … there’s absolutely nothing that college football does that’s better than pausing a massive game between two top four teams to wave hi to a bunch of sick kids watching from a hospital.

I think … Nick Saban was right when he was grousing about his team not being good enough in a win over Mercer.

I know … the media liked to dog him for getting all hot and bothered over blowout wins early on.

I believe … there’s a reason why Nick Saban is Nick Saban, and for all his flaws, the guy knows what he’s doing.

I think … Caleb Williams HAS to be the starting quarterback.

I know … the vultures are circling as we speak.

I believe … in the 2021 college football world, you’re not doing your job as an elite football program if you don’t somehow reach out to the Spencer Rattler camp – and that includes any marketing types – and show why he’d be loved, needed, and cherished if he became a part of the (insert school here) family.

I think … the SEC is a whole lot better than you think.

I know … I can’t believe I still have to argue every year – EVERY … YEAR … – that the SEC is really good at college football.

I believe … the last few Saturdays proved just how deep that conference is.

I think … Notre Dame is going to keep finding creative ways to get through games.

I know … the College Football Playoff dynamic totally changes if Cincinnati goes undefeated and Notre Dame finishes 11-1.

I believe … there’s at least one more loss along the way for Notre Dame, but I’ve thought that before and the team keeps on getting it done.

I think … it’s not about the one game big performance when it comes to the College Football Playoff.

I think … Cincinnati is a fantastic team that could beat anyone on the right day.

I know … we’re not allowed to schedule-shame Cincinnati.

I believe … last Saturday proved that the every week grind of a Power Five schedule all but disqualifies anyone outside the Power Five – if it didn’t just lose to Boise State, BYU would’ve been the exception with its slate – in a system that only allows four teams in a playoff. But …

I think … it’s not fair.

I know … the College Football Playoff should be expanded.

I believe … there HAS to be a way for every conference champion to have a chance at playing its way into the national championship, even if that includes an expanded play-in bracket. But until then …

I know … it’s about beating Miami in your big non-conference game, and then trying to get past Florida, and then Ole Miss, and then Texas A&M, and then Mississippi State, and then Tennessee, and then LSU, and then Arkansas, and then Auburn, and then – if all goes well – come up with one more win over a great team that’s having a monster season …

I believe … it’s about beating Washington in your big non-conference game, and then trying to get past Wisconsin, and then Nebraska, and then Northwestern, and then Michigan State, and then Indiana, and then Penn State, and then Maryland, and then Ohio State, and then – if all goes well – come up with one more win over a great team that’s having a monster season …

I think … it’s about beating Ohio State in your big non-conference game, and then trying to get past Arizona, and then Stanford, and then Cal, and then UCLA, and then Colorado, and then Washington, and then Washington State, and then Utah, and then Oregon State, and then – if all goes well – come up with one more win over a great team that’s having a monster season …

I know … it’s about beating Nebraska in your big in your big non-conference game, and then trying to get past West Virginia, and then Kansas State, and then Texas, and then TCU, and then Kansas – strike that – and then Texas Tech, and then Baylor, and then Iowa State, and then Oklahoma State, and then – if all goes well – come up with one more win over a great team that’s having a monster season …

I believe … it’s not about beating Indiana and Notre Dame, and then Temple, and then a UCF team without its starting quarterback, and then Navy, and then Tulane, and then Tulsa, and then USF, and then SMU, and then East Carolina and then – if all goes well – come up with one more win over a decent team that’s having a good season.

Week 6 Roundup What It All Means
CFN 1-130 Rankings | Bowl Projections
Week 6 scoreboard, all the predictions
Week 7 opening lines | AP | Coaches
Big Game Reaction: Texas A&M, Iowa, OU, more

I think … again, I know what’s going to happen.

I know … we’re seeing something special with this Georgia defense and offensive front.

I believe … the dream season at a 2019 LSU and 2020 Alabama level will all unravel at some point unless JT Daniels gets healthy.

I think … we’re not going to get the weird College Football Playoff that you might think.

I know … we all want to see that one outlier crashing in with the big-name bluebloods.

I believe … we might be all playing this thing out to see who loses to Georgia.

I think … Oregon and Arizona State are more in this than everyone thinks.

I know … Michigan, Michigan State, and Penn State are all in this more than everyone thinks.

I believe … don’t laugh, but Kentucky is more in this than we all think, know, and believe, at least to get into the College Football Playoff.

I think … Kentucky is going to beat Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, New Mexico State, and Louisville.

I know … Kentucky is going to lose to Georgia.

I believe … we’re going to end up having a very, very serious theoretical College Football Playoff discussion over how much a one-loss SEC team should be punished for losing to Georgia.

I think … Oklahoma will lose one game – like, at Oklahoma State – but end up in the College Football Playoff.

I know … a one-loss Power Five champion is absolutely in – assuming Wake Forest loses twice and Boston College loses once, taking the ACC totally out of the picture.

I believe … the field of possible Power Five teams that could realistically get into the College Football Playoff is whittling down fast.

I think … the college football world would have fun with, say, Georgia, Iowa, Cincinnati, and Oregon, even if it becomes the Georgia Invitational.

I know … the College Football Playoff has sucked over the past few years with the chalkiest of chalk and bluest of the blue blood programs in it.

I believe … it’s somehow going to be Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Ohio State, and if it’s not that, it will be some other College Football Playoff veteran like Oregon in it for Bama.

I think … you want something different.

I know … you don’t really want Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Ohio State.

I believe … deep down, you’re cool with Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Ohio State as long as the College Football. Playoff games stop sucking.

I think … I know it’s all going to be okay.

I know … I believe it’s all going to be okay.

I believe … I think it’s all going to be okay.

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Week 6 Roundup What It All Means
CFN 1-130 Rankings | Bowl Projections
Week 6 scoreboard, all the predictions
Week 7 opening lines | AP | Coaches
Big Game Reaction: Texas A&M, Iowa, OU, more

Think, Know, Believe After Week 5: College Football Daily Cavalcade

College Football Daily Cavalcade: What I think, what I know, and what I believe after a huge Week 5.

College Football Daily Cavalcade: What I think, what I know, and what I believe after a huge Week 5.

College Football Daily Cavalcade

– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak

Sorry if this take sucks, it’s not my fault …

It meant for you to get your popcorn ready because popcorn is yummy, not because it thought it would be any good against Alabama.

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It’s not like you all would rather be spending the next several months arguing whether or not Notre Dame should be in the College Football Playoff

I think … Cincinnati is very, very good.

I know … it could at least hang with – if not beat – any one of 127 other college football teams this year.

I believe … it’s not Alabama or Georgia. However, this year, no one is.

I think … Miami University, Murray State, at Indiana, at Notre Dame, Temple, UCF, at Navy, at Tulane, Tulsa, at USF, SMU, at East Carolina is not anywhere near a worthy enough slate to deserve one of the four spots in the College Football Playoff, no matter what.

I know … it’s absolutely not fair to Cincinnati.

I believe … very soon, BYU is going to be the real outside-the-box team we’re going to be talking about in the College Football Playoff.

I think … it would be fine if Cincinnati got in. Whatever.

I know … it would create enough energy to at least placate the Everyone Gets A Trophy crowd that wants to see the Group of Five team get a shot.

I believe … Tim Tebow and Florida just scored again on unbeaten Cincinnati in the 2010 Sugar Bowl.

I think … the Pac-12 continues to be the most entertaining conference in college football – for the most part.

I know … 2020 was a blast for the Pac-12 – in a limited season – and this year’s big games are a must see.

I believe … 95% of America was sleeping during the first half of Arizona State-UCLA.

I think … you should never, ever, ever, ever, EVER go for two unless you absolutely have to.

I know … Arizona State changed the entire tenor of the game by converting an unnecessary two-point conversion early in the second half.

I believe … if you have the over on the 55 point total, and the team hits the mark by unnecessarily going for two … cool.

Week 5 Roundup: What It All Means
CFN 1-130 Rankings | Bowl Projections
Week 5 scoreboard, all the predictions
Week 6 opening lines | AP | Coaches
Big Game Reaction: Cincinnati, Oregon, more

I think … that even though I’m the Never Go For 2 guy, in Arizona State’s case early in the second half against UCLA, it absolutely did the right thing. (To whiteboard this, Arizona State was up 24-23, scored a touchdown on the first drive of the second half, and it went for two and got it to go up nine. UCLA had to take several extra chances the rest of the way because of it.)

I know … if you score a touchdown to go up seven, going for two is a no-risk shot at making it a two score game.

I believe … in almost any situation, if you miss the two and remain up seven, the other team will always kick the extra point to tie it up if it scores a touchdown. Herm Edwards is the one coach who seems to get that.

I think … Georgia really might be the best team in college football.

I know … Alabama actually is beatable.

I believe … the 2021 Georgia team might be a modified version of 2019 LSU – with the Dawg D as good as that Tiger O – if we ever get to see a healthy JT Daniels and a slew of able-bodied receivers.

I think … Florida is still the third-best team in the SEC.

I know … Kentucky beat the Gators for just the second time since 1986.

I believe … the Wildcat schedule is so manageable, the Sugar Bowl is a real, live possibility.

I think … Wisconsin is suddenly bad at football now.

I know … it’s because it can’t run, and that’s what the program did as well or better than anyone for over two decades.

I believe … it doesn’t matter who wins or where else you go or went. For the fun factor, deep down, in places you do talk about at parties, EVERYONE wishes they went to Wisconsin.

I think … I’m done trying to figure out West Virginia.

I know … I’m done trying to figure out USC.

I believe … I’m REALLY done trying to figure out Minnesota.

I think … Clemson is just mediocre this year, partly because of injuries and partly because the O line can’t get the ground game going.

I know … it still has the talent to be a whole lot better than it is.

I believe … it’s somehow still going to win the ACC Championship.

I think … Texas is about to rise up soon and start making a giant statement.

I know … Oklahoma is going to get tagged at some point.

I believe … the Big 12 is still knee deep in the College Football Playoff chase.

I think … I honestly don’t know what we’re all supposed to call the Texas and Oklahoma game.

I know … I really don’t care if it should be called the shootout, the rivalry, or Steve.

I believe … from here on, I’m going with the Red River Cocktail Party.

I think … I know it’s all going to be okay.

I know … I believe it’s all going to be okay.

I believe … I think it’s all going to be okay.

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Week 5 Roundup: What It All Means
CFN 1-130 Rankings | Bowl Projections
Week 5 scoreboard, all the predictions
Week 6 opening lines | AP | Coaches
Big Game Reaction: Cincinnati, Oregon, more

Think, Know, Believe After Week 4: College Football Daily Cavalcade

College Football Daily Cavalcade: What I think, what I know, and what I believe after a wild and amazing Week 4.

College Football Daily Cavalcade: What I think, what I know, and what I believe after a wild and amazing Week 4.

College Football Daily Cavalcade

– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak

Sorry if this take sucks, it’s not my fault …

It did its job against Bowling Green, holding it to 192 yards of total offense with just 22 on the ground. It still figured out how to lose.

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And it all began with what was supposed to be a White Out at Syracuse

I think … on a grand scale, that was one of the weirdest weekends of college football I can remember.

I know … it’s no fun for the die-hards of a big team to have the day/weekend/week/season/life ruined by a big loss, but …

I believe … it’s so wonderful when fans and players of schools that haven’t had a lot of success get to enjoy a shocking win they’ll remember forever.

I think … in a whole lot of ways, it’s not really fun to be a fan of a major college football program.

I know … if you are, it’s usually more about enduring than joy. For too many, the losses are remembered far more than the big wins – which is part of the reason why college football is so intense and amazing.

I believe … you should absolutely puff that chest out Bowling Green, ULM, Oregon State, UTSA, Georgia Tech, UTEP, and NC State.

I think … 99.3% of the time it’s on the well-compensated adult coaching staff when a talented college kid isn’t getting the job done.

I know … Graham Mertz is playing like a quarterback who’s been coached up hard to never, ever, ever make the big mistake.

I believe … if you play like you can never, ever, ever make the big mistake, that leads to four interceptions in a blowout loss to Notre Dame.

I think … I know how Notre Dame fans roll.

I know … because I grew up in it.

I believe … only about 0.1% of the chirping coming out of last Saturday in Soldier Field was from someone who actually attended the school.

I think … it was the dream of some family members for me to go to Notre Dame.

I know … I had zero interest in a school that – at the time – seemed like it was all guys when I visited, which led to …

I believe … my “I’m actually fine with failing” essay might have had something to do with getting a letter that started with, “We’re not all able to reach certain goals …”

I think … that anecdote is pretty amusing

I know … I’ve told that to a few family members over the years.

I believe … they didn’t find it the least bit amusing.

I think … Notre Dame gets a bit of a bad rap. Unlike alumni and acquaintances of mine from other schools – (cough) leaders and best (COUGH) – Irish friends don’t annoy me.

I know … doing what I do, I cheer, cheer for sports information departments.

I believe … I will always have a wee bit of a rooting interest in Notre Dame because of that. When CFN first started up a bazillion years ago, Notre Dame was among the most accommodating and helpful schools to deal with.

Week 4 Roundup: What It All Means
CFN 1-130 Rankings | Bowl Projections
Week 4 scoreboard, all the predictions
Week 5 opening lines | AP | Coaches

I think … the sports information department is a massive part of a university. If the outside world only knows about your school because of a major sports program, your sports information director becomes one of the most important people to help sell and promote the place.

I know … too many universities don’t get that.

I believe … there’s a direct correlation between a good sports information department and how prospective students view potentially going there.

I think … David Letterman needs to ask questions at any and every press conference possible.

I know … way too many people don’t know who David Letterman is.

I believe … a whole generation is so sadly hyper-fried in a world gone mad that basic humor has gone bye-bye.

I think … there’s Alabama, Georgia, and 128 other college football teams this season.

I know … both teams were pushed hard in the first few weeks, and will be again.

I believe … you’re not crazy to think Georgia is the No. 1 team in college football.

I think … at the end of the day, the four best teams in college football – in some way – are probably in the SEC.

I know … there has never been a two-loss team in the College Football Playoff.

I believe … the College Football Playoff committee will end up putting in some unbeaten or one-loss team from another conference over a terrific two-loss team whose only crime was losing to two of the top SEC teams.

I think … this is the weakest Heisman race I can remember.

I know … it all comes down to who comes through the biggest on the biggest stages against the biggest teams.

I believe … Matt Corral, your table is ready.

I think … Iowa at Maryland on Friday night is a currently unappreciated gem of a game to kickoff the weekend, because …

I know … it sure as shoot isn’t going to be Virginia at Miami on Thursday night.

I believe … THIS is going to be the weekend that takes the 2021 college football season into hyperdrive.

I think … Arkansas should be the No. 1 team in the country if it beats Georgia in Athens.

I know … Ole Miss will be the No. 1 team in the country if it beats Alabama in Tuscaloosa.

I believe … Oregon might lose to Stanford in Palo Alto, Oklahoma could get tagged by Kansas State in Manhattan, and seriously, watch out for Ohio State going to Rutgers.

I think … Arizona State at UCLA is a Pac-12 After Dark game you HAVE to stay up for.

I know … no matter which way Cincinnati at Notre Dame goes, the winner will be put into the College Football Playoff by fans and the media.

I believe … there’s a 44-3 College Football Playoff semifinal against an SEC team in our near future if that happens.

I think … WKU and that offense will give Michigan State problems.

I know … Louisiana Tech will give NC State problems.

I believe … Liberty at UAB is the best game this weekend you’re not going to watch.

I think … this weekend is going to be a blast.

I know … the 2021 college football season has already been a blast.

I believe … we’re going to have a whole lot to talk about next week at this time.

I think … I know it’s all going to be okay.

I know … I believe it’s all going to be okay.

I believe … I think it’s all going to be okay.

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Week 4 Roundup: What It All Means
CFN 1-130 Rankings | Bowl Projections
Week 4 scoreboard, all the predictions
Week 5 opening lines | AP | Coaches

Think, Know, Believe After Week 2: College Football Daily Cavalcade

College Football Daily Cavalcade: What I think, what I know, and what I believe after a fantastic Week 2.

College Football Daily Cavalcade: What I think, what I know, and what I believe after a fantastic Week 2.

College Football Daily Cavalcade

– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak

Sorry if this take sucks, it’s not my fault …

“If it stinks, it stinks.” Like how Nick Saban thought about how Alabama played against Mercer, it smells bad for everybody. Does it smell bad to you? What do you want me to do? Make excuses for it?

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Fortunately, it’s on Peacock which means most won’t know how close it comes to being a total disaster.

Week 2 of America’s favorite gimmick college football piece – what I think, what I know, and what I believe.

I think … Notre Dame being ranked in the top ten is ridiculous considering the way it played against Toledo and a Florida State team that just lost to Jacksonville State from the FCS world.

I know … 2-0 is 2-0 is 2-0. Any landing you can walk away from is a good one.

I believe … those who voted in the latest polls don’t have a Peacock subscription.

I think … Jacksonville State is in Alabama.

I know … I’ve made that mistake before because, you know, it’s called Jacksonville – and I’ll make it again.

I believe … Florida State should’ve never let it come down to one last play to gack that away.

I think … Oregon offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead coached a whale of a game.

I know … he’s going to be a fantastic head coach once he gets his next chance.

I believe … I could never pull off the beard.

I think … Iowa State is a whole lot better than it showed against Iowa.

I know … Iowa State didn’t show anything against Northern Iowa, either.

I believe … until Iowa State bounces back – which it totally will – there’s no reason it should be ranked 14th in both polls.

I think … the Pac-12 is asleep at the wheel, and it’ll be ticked if the Big 12 expands west and starts grabbing Mountain West teams.

I know … San Diego State is a terrific fit for the Big 12 – and better for the Pac-12.

I believe … Colorado State wouldn’t be bad, but losing to an FCS team and then Vanderbilt doesn’t help the optics.

I think … Lane Kiffin is a fantastic football coach.

I know … he doesn’t get his due because he’s too Lane Kiffin.

I believe … USC doesn’t lose to Stanford on Saturday night if Lane Kiffin is the head coach.

I think … the Dr. Pepper Fansville ads are more entertaining than anything you’re paying for on a streaming service.

I know … one version totally ripped off the daily Coastal vs. State college choice debates in my house.

I believe … the San Diego State win over Arizona didn’t solidify the kid’s college choice between the two, but apparently it’s a sign of some sort.

I think … the Baker Mayfield Progressive ads gossiping with the neighbor ladies strike entirely too close to home.

I know … he should’ve planted a flag in the middle of Arrowhead had the Browns pulled off the win.

I believe … Baker’s flag-planting in Columbus in 2017 was nothing. Now this is savage.

I think … I’ve carefully structured my world to avoid the horrific nightmare of country music at all costs.

I know … sugary carbs were fired about a year ago.

I believe … I’m going to break something tasteful if I can’t get that (bleep)ing Applebee’s Oreo shake song out of my head for at least ten peaceful minutes.

I think … all of the craziness in college football over the first two weeks is totally necessary considering how chalky this sport gets.

I know … a whole lot of curveballs are coming, and then …

I believe … it’s still going to be Alabama, Ohio State, Oklahoma, and Clemson in the College Football Playoff.

I think … Week 1 was fun because it was Week 1.

I know … Week 2 was a blast with a slew of intriguing games and several close calls and upsets.

I believe … Week 3 is a slate full of suck other than Alabama vs. Florida.

Week 2 Roundup: What It All Means
CFN 1-130 Rankings | Bowl Projections
Week 2 scoreboard, all the predictions
Week 3 opening lines projection

I think … people love to hammer on Nick Saban because he’s never happy despite being on an all-time great run.

I know … I’m not questioning his methods – the guy is doing something right.

I believe … even if it’s Mercer vs. the Tide, if someone is giving you an investment opportunity that includes a 53-0 lead walking into the stadium, you gladly accept the offer.

I think …  Texas is probably better than it looked against Arkansas.

I know … Texas A&M is much better than it looked against Colorado.

I believe … TCU is about to surprise everyone and become this year’s it team in the Big 12.

I think … Texas doesn’t HAVE to go to the SEC.

I know … Texas would be a far, far better fit in every way possible with the Big Ten or Pac-12.

I believe … that was Arkansas, son, not Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Ole Miss, or Texas A&M from the SEC West.

I think … after last year, there’s no taking for granted that we just got another full slate of college football games on Saturday, and …

I know … Week 1 of the NFL was fantastic, so …

I believe … all is right with the world.

I think … I know it’s all going to be okay.

I know … I believe it’s all going to be okay.

I believe … I think it’s all going to be okay.

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Week 2 Roundup: What It All Means
CFN 1-130 Rankings | Bowl Projections
Week 2 scoreboard, all the predictions
Week 3 opening lines projection