The NASCAR Cup Series heads to the Texas Motor Speedway Sunday for the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500. The green flag is set to drop at approximately 2:05 p.m. ET. Below we analyze the 2021 Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 odds and lines, with NASCAR picks and predictions.
The NASCAR Cup Series playoff field was reduced from 12 to 8 after last week’s Bank of America ROVAL 400. Kyle Larson, last weekend’s winner, Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr. and Ryan Blaney are in the Top 4, with Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott, Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski still alive.
2021 Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500: What you need to know
- Joe Gibbs Racing’s Kyle Busch won last fall in Fort Worth, Texas, posting an average speed of 135.263 mph. Busch has taken checkers in two of the past six stops in Texas, and four times overall, most among all active drivers.
- Erik Jones leads all drivers (min. 3 starts) with a 10.3 Average-Finish Position (AFP) in nine career starts with three top-5 runs.
- Kevin Harvick, eliminated from the playoffs last week, has three-career wins at Texas with 12 of his 36 starts resulting in finishes inside the Top 5.
- JGR’s Denny Hamlin is tied with Harvick for second-most wins at Texas among active drivers, winning three times. He has finished 10th or better 14 times in 30 career starts with a 13.8 AFP.
- Cup regular Michael McDowell is not a fan of this track, posting a dismal 30.4 AFP in 22 career Cup starts in Texas.
Who is going to win the 2021 Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500?
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:10 a.m. ET.
KYLE LARSON (+280), who won at the ROVAL last weekend, is the chalk at Texas. He has struggled in Texas over the years, however, posting just three top-5 finishes, and four top-10 runs, in 13 career Cup starts with a dismal 19.8 AFP. There are better values to be had elsewhere.
KYLE BUSCH (+700) is a much better value as he remains in the hunt for a spot in the final four, and a win would set him up for another chance at a Cup Series championship. This is a track he has had tremendous success, and a Texas stop comes just at the right time for him. KYLE BUSCH TOP 5 FINISH (-115) is still a decent value play, too.
JGR teammate DENNY HAMLIN (+600) is just seven points over the cutoff, so he needs another good showing. The driver of the No. 11 machine has won three times at this track, and he has a 13.8 AFP in 30 Cup starts.
CHRISTOPHER BELL TOP 10 FINISH (-140) is worth a roll of the dice. He has just two Cup starts under his belt at TMS, but he finished third in one of those runs, leading five laps with a 12.0 AFP.
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Long-shot bets for the 2021 Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500
As mentioned above, there is just something about Texas that ERIK JONES (+20000) has really liked. He has never finished lower than 22nd in nine Cup starts, leading 112 laps, while posting three runs inside the Top 5, and six showings in the Top 10.
However, playing Jones to win is only worth a small-unit bet. A better wager is ERIK JONES TOP 10 FINISH (+200) for a chance to double up.
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