Degenerate gamblers unite. The NFL season is nigh, and with it comes a cornucopia of ways to diversify a budding portfolio with long-term investments in the player-prop market.
This exact column last year had a hit rate of two out of three, a percentage that Meat Loaf would say, “ain’t bad.” This year the dive is only getting deeper. Three picks is no longer enough satiate this thirst. Here’s to building on a successful campaign and making some extra money on all things Dallas Cowboys.
A quick note, all lines come from Bovada and can be found here, though they are subject to change at a moment’s notice.
Dak Prescott
There’s no place better to start than with quarterback Dak Prescott. Coming off the best statistical season of his career, the odds-makers are projecting a decline in 2020 in his gross totals.
Passing yards over/under 4319.5 (-130 over, EVEN under)
Only three times in head coach Mike McCarthy’s 13 previous years with the Green Bay Packers did his offense fall in the bottom half of the league in passing attempts. The lowest of all was in 2014, where the Packers ranked No. 20 in attempts, throwing the ball 536 times. That would be the second most attempts for Prescott in his career, trailing only the 2019 season.
It’s easy to imagine the Cowboys throwing the ball less in 2020, but given McCarthy’s history, even if that happens it it is unlikely to be a significant decrease. The bigger concern facing Prescott is simple regression. He was incredibly efficient last year, notching over 8.2 yards per attempt, so even a modest drop off can make the over a tough bet to win.
The Verdict: Over. Prescott staves off the yardage regression to become just the 12th quarterback in NFL history to throw for at least 4320 yards in consecutive seasons.
Passing touchdowns over/under 27.5 (-145 over, +110 under)
Prescott had never thrown for more than 23 touchdowns until 2019, however the bettors are heavily favoring the over for the Cowboys quarterback in 2020.
The biggest reason why is a swerve from the Jason Garret regime that was notorious for its conservative nature in the red zone. McCarthy has been historically pass happy inside the 20-yard-line. The comparison was made by The Athletic’s Bob Sturm, who noted the stark difference between the two head coaches.
The Verdict: McCarthy’s aggressive nature gets Prescott to the over.
Interceptions thrown over/under 9.5 (-115 over, -115 under)
Prescott has averaged just nine interceptions a game in his career, but part of that average is skewed by his anomaly of a rookie season in which he notched just four. The increased aggressiveness will lead to many good things on the football field, but it’s unlikely to lower his interception total.
Verdict: Over
Ezekiel Elliott
Rushing yards over/under 1275.5 (over -110, under -120)
Rushing touchdowns over/under 9.5 (over -115, under -115)
The public is off of running back Ezekiel Elliott’s bandwagon for the moment, as the under for yardage is currently seeing more action. That would make the second year in a row the Cowboys bell cow fails to hit that specific over, and it’s not hard to see why. There are three things working against Elliott here.
The first is his decline in production from his rookie year on. His yards per game have gone down every single season he’s been in the league.
| Year | Yards per game |
| 2016 | 108.7 |
| 2017 | 98.3 |
| 2018 | 95.6 |
| 2019 | 84.8 |
That’s an uncomfortable truth. His 2016 performance was bolstered by an offensive line that was head and shoulders above the rest of the league. That’s no longer the case due to age and attrition. But the elephant in the room is whether or not Elliott’s 2019 is a sign of things to come or just a blip on the radar.
The second issue is backup running back Tony Pollard, who played well in his limited time on the field his rookie year. It’s likely he’ll be used more than the 18% of offensive snaps he saw in 2019, and even a small increase can eat into Elliott’s totals.
The final, and perhaps most important is Mike McCarthy. McCarthy has never had a running back rush for 1276 yards in a season. The most yardage in a season belongs to Ryan Grant and his 1253 yards back in 2009. Otherwise, some truly pedestrian numbers have led McCarthy’s teams on the ground. On two separate occasions under 500 yards did the trick.
To be fair, McCarthy has never had a back like Elliott during his time in the NFL. For those who like the over, there’s one thing that matters most in determining whether or not he delivers: winning games.
In games where Dallas jumped out to a big lead were the games in which Elliott was most effective. In the Cowboys’ seven double digit wins in 2019, he racked up 778 yards on 142 attempts and six rushing touchdowns, good for 5.47 yards-per-carry.
This is the formula the Cowboys need to follow in 2020: throw to build a lead and then lean on the running game to salt away the clock.
Verdict: Over on both. An increased focus on the passing game results in a more efficient Elliott.
Amari Cooper
Receiving yards over/under 1050.5 (over -110, under -120)
Receiving touchdowns over/under 7.5 (over -115, under -115)
Receptions over/under 74.5 (over -115, under -115)
The lines above could pass for Amari Cooper’s career averages and no one would blink an eye. Through his career his 16 game average per Pro Football Reference is 74 receptions for 1059 yards and 7 touchdowns. These are the exact kind of lines that strike fear into the hearts of gamblers everywhere.
There’s been two problems that have plagued Cooper and have kept him from entering the upper-crust of wide receiver society: injuries and consistency. It’s not exactly a state secret that Prescott’s No. 1 target battled injuries throughout 2019 and the Cowboys Wire’s KD Drummond outlined the stark contrast between his stellar performance at home and his concerning play on the road.
For Cooper to hit the over it’s going to require nearly perfect health. Unfortunately, he’s missed a considerable amount of time heading into the season and as of Wednesday before kick off wasn’t a full participant in practice and is working on the resistance cords.
Verdicts: With the tenuous nature of Cooper’s health heading into 2020, it’s best to stay away from the receptions and yards bets. Go under on 7.5 touchdowns, as he had just nine targets inside the red zone last year, and may be the fourth best receiving option near the goal line in 2020.
Michael Gallup
Receiving yards over/under 900.5 (over -120, under -110)
Michael Gallup may be the most slept on wide receiver in the NFL. He’s on the short list of receivers to top 1100 yards in one of their first two seasons. He did that in 2019 in just 14 games while getting knee surgery in the middle of the season. No big deal.
He was already in the shadow of Amari Cooper and then the Cowboys went ahead and drafted CeeDee Lamb, pushing him further from the spotlight. There’s concern from some that there won’t be enough targets to go around, but that shouldn’t be an issue. The only regret is there’s not more Gallup props to throw money at.
Verdict: Over.
CeeDee Lamb
Receiving yards over/under 750.5 (over -130, under EVEN)
Receiving touchdowns over/under 4.5 (over -170, under +130)
Again, like with Cooper and Gallup before him, it comes down to a question of targets. Fortunately for Lamb fans, there’s plenty to go around. First, it’s fair to assume, given McCarthy’s history, that the passing attempts won’t see a significant drop off in 2020 so the Dallas offense and quarterback Dak Prescott will be throwing the ball early and often.
Secondly, it’s not exactly a one to one equation, but the Cowboys do have targets to replace. Specifically to former tight end Jason Witten and former wide receiver Randall Cobb. Those two combined for 166 targets in 2019. Some of those will surely find their way to starting tight end Blake Jarwin, but there’s a significant amount left on the table.
Highly-touted rookie wide receivers often struggle transitioning to the NFL. There’s several reasons for it, but a lot of times it’s because they quickly are drawing attention from the opposing team’s better cornerbacks on a weekly basis. In Dallas, Lamb has the luxury of being with two wide receivers who demand attention, making this an easy pick.
Verdict: Over on both. Lamb turns in one of the best rookie receiving campaigns in team history.