Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Ronald Jones II was on his way to a 1,000-yard rushing season but his 2020 was impeded down the stretch by some bad health luck. This allowed Leonard Fournette to siphon some of Jones’ running back responsibilities but both will have the opportunity to be a workhorse if they come out hot to start Super Bowl 55. Below, we look at Ronald Jones’ Super Bowl prop bets with NFL picks and predictions.
Ronald Jones II Super Bowl prop bets
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 7:55 a.m. ET.
Rushing yards: UNDER 35.5 (-115)
Since missing Tampa Bay’s wild-card win over the Washington Football Team, Jones returned to run for 62 yards in the divisional round but was on the field for just 28% of the Bucs’ offensive snaps in the NFC Championship.
Jones also played in fewer offensive snaps than Fournette in Week 12 against the Kansas City Chiefs. He had nine carries for 66 yards in that game but 34 yards came on one run so it’s not like Jones consistently gashed the Kansas defense.
Finally, I envision the Chiefs getting up early, as they did in Week 12, and the Bucs having to play catch up. If Tampa Bay is playing from behind, that makes it a lot less likely Jones gets the workload to push him over his rushing yards prop.
Also see:
- Super Bowl prop bets: Bank on these Tom Brady prop predictions
- Chiefs vs. Buccaneers odds, picks and prediction
- Super Bowl Prop Bets
First rush attempt: OVER 3.5 yards (+110)
My read on this is simple: Jones is much more of a dual-threat than Fournette so opposing defenses line up to guard a pass, which allows Jones’ to run against smaller boxes.
Kansas City might be worried about Jones as a pass-catcher out of the backfield since he caught a 37-yard touchdown pass in the Week 12 Bucs-Chiefs game. Also, Jones has gone over 3.5 yards on his first carry in each of his last five games, a streak that started in Tampa’s Week 12 loss to Kansas City.
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Receiving yards: OVER 2.5 yards (-115)
Granted, we just discussed why Kansas City will probably strategize for Jones catching balls out of the backfield but, this total is just too disrespectful.
Jones was targeted in 13 of his 14 games in 2020, and he caught a ball in 12 of them. Also, the Chiefs’ pass defense is going to have its hands full with Tampa’s elite WR corp so there has to be some check-down opportunities for Jones.
Even if that’s not available, the Chiefs are 27th in running back’s yards per target and quarterbacks have a 105.0 QB rating when throwing against their linebackers.
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