The Kansas City Chiefs are one win away from repeating as Super Bowl champions, once again led by QB Patrick Mahomes. With Super Bowl prop bets such a fun side-game to the actual Super Bowl odds, we’re focusing this one specifically on the top Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl prop bets with NFL picks and predictions.
Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl prop bets
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 8 p.m. ET.
Patrick Mahomes passing yards: OVER 329.5 (-120)
Mahomes is going to throw it a ton Sunday night. He hasn’t attempted fewer than 30 passes since Week 7 and has topped 318 yards passing in seven of his last 10 games. His passing totals have been lower in the postseason, throwing for at least 300 yards only twice in seven games, but this is a good matchup for him.
In Week 12 against the Bucs, Mahomes threw for 462 yards and three touchdowns. He’s going to eclipse 330 yards in the Super Bowl. Bang the Over (-120)
Patrick Mahomes passing TDs: UNDER 2.5 (+110)
It seems foolish to bet that Mahomes will finish with fewer than three touchdown passes against a team that he shredded earlier this season. However, he only had three-plus touchdown passes in seven of his 17 games played this season.
I like the value that comes with betting the Under here at +110 because, although Mahomes will put up big yardage numbers, he could have touchdowns poached by the Chiefs’ running game … or he could rush one in himself.
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Patrick Mahomes interceptions: OVER 0.5 (+145)
Mahomes only has two career interceptions in the postseason, both of which were in last year’s Super Bowl. His interception rate the last two seasons was 1.0%, leading the NFL in 2020. But the Buccaneers’ cornerbacks have good hands and Mahomes could make a mistake or two in this one. It’s just a matter of the Bucs capitalizing on those errors.
Take the Over because the Bucs’ defense will be aggressive and, after all, no one is perfect – not even Mahomes.
Also see:
Patrick Mahomes longest completion: OVER 39.5 (-115)
The Chiefs are as good as any team at creating big plays. Since November, Mahomes has seven passes that went for at least 39 yards. The 39.5 projection is a big number, but never underestimate the speed and explosiveness of WR Tyreek Hill, TE Travis Kelce and WR Mecole Hardman.
Bet the Over. The Bucs will be good for one busted coverage in this one.
Patrick Mahomes rushing yards: OVER 19.5 (-105)
In nine of his 17 games played this season, Mahomes rushed for at least 20 yards. He’s usually a solid bet to have at least one run of 10-plus yards and with the way the Bucs rush the passer, he’ll be forced out of the pocket often.
When he does escape the pressure, he’ll use his legs to create plays on the ground. The turf toe didn’t seem to bother him against the Bills, even though he only rushed for 5 yards, but he’ll go Over 20 yards rushing.
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Also see:
- Patrick Mahomes, Sammy Watkins provide injury updates (Chiefs Wire)
- Admiration between Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady apparent (Chiefs Wire)
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